Milwaukee Bucks Game Preview: Dec. 26 at Washington Wizards

Dec 23, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Tony Snell (21) dunks during the third quarter against the Washington Wizards at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Bucks need to handle their business against the Washington Wizards, again.

The Milwaukee Bucks stomped the Washington Wizards on Christmas Eve Eve. On the strength of Giannis Antetokounmpo being so good he got rewarded with MVP chants at the BMO Harris Bradley Center, the Bucks beat Washington 123-96.

After a few days off for Christmas break (something Milwaukee may not get next season) the Bucks get another shot at the Wizards. Washington hasn’t played since the last game either, although the Wiz probably wish they could’ve put more space between now and their last game.

This time around the action will be in Washington, giving the Wizards the home-field advantage. That might not matter if Giannis does what he did last time around, but there’s no guarantee the Bucks will have such an easy time of things for this game.

It’s tough to beat the same team multiple times in a row, which is why it’s so hard to win in the NBA Playoffs. One piece of the reason these little two-in-a-row series were introduced was to create a playoff atmosphere in the regular season, and it’s worked pretty well.

This could be important preparation for Milwaukee making the real playoffs this season! Every win matters for that, especially over a conference rival.

To see how either team could come out on top on Monday night, we’ll look at major keys for both sides and a Wizard to watch before making our predictions.

Dec 23, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) defends Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) during the second quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Major Key For Milwaukee: Get To The Line

Free things are good. Everybody loves free swag, even if it’s just a can koozie. Free food always goes over well. And in the NBA basketball realm, free throws are pretty darn neat.

Free throws are some of the most efficient shots you can get in the NBA. Compared to the average two- or three-point shot, a free throw is far more efficient. Obviously things like layups and dunks are up there too, but the good news is those two things often go hand in hand.

Attacking the rim like Giannis and Jabari Parker do so well often results in lots of free throws. Both Giannis and Jabari are currently averaging more free throws per game than ever before, and luckily both of them are skilled enough free throw shooters to make them count.

In games where the Bucks take at least 24 free throws, the team is 5-1. When Milwaukee takes less than 15 free throws, the Bucks are 3-8. Going inside and attacking the painted area is crucial for Milwaukee, both because of free throws, easy points there, and the additional space it opens for the Bucks shooters around the arc.

Dec 18, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) celebrates on the court against the LA Clippers at the final buzzer at Verizon Center. The Wizards won 117-110. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Major Key For Washington: Score A Lot

The Washington defense has been horrible this season. The Wizards are 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating and 24th in points allowed per game. Almost remarkably, Washington has allowed teams to score 110 or more points nearly twice as often (13 times) as they’ve held teams to under 100 points (seven times).

To put that into perspective, Milwaukee has allowed opponents to score 110 or more just eight times, as opposed to 12 games in which the Bucks have given up less than 100 points. The gist here is that the Wizards likely aren’t going to hold Milwaukee down too much on defense.

Washington is dealing with tons of injuries, and both Ian Mahinmi and Jason Smith might miss the game on Monday. Center is undoubtedly the most important position on defense, and Daniel Ochefu playing major minutes is a disaster scenario for the Wizards.

There’s just not a lot of depth here, and many of the Wizards important players are on the younger side. That typically isn’t good for a team’s defense–it takes a while to learn how to play NBA caliber defense.

If the Wizards can’t score a lot on the Bucks, they might not have a chance. Milwaukee’s defense has been good, but it’s been beaten before. Washington needs to have success on that end, because they’re not going to be able to slow down the Bucks much at all.

Dec 21, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) reacts to a call against the Chicago Bulls during the second half at the United Center. Washington defeats Chicago Bulls 107-97. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Player To Watch: Bradley Beal

Last time around, I wrote than John Wall would play well regardless of pretty much anything and the Wizards needed Beal to step up too. Wall recorded 18 points and ten assists in the loss, while Beal managed just ten points, although he did dish six dimes.

Still, Beal made just three of his ten shots and was essentially stifled by Milwaukee’s perimeter defense. That cannot happen again if the Wizards want to avoid taking another L at the hands of the Bucks.

After Wall and Beal, there aren’t any more truly dynamic scorers on the Wizards. Otto Porter is having his best season yet, but he hasn’t hit the 15 points per game mark. No Wiz players besides Wall and Beal score that much, although Porter, Markieff Morris and Trey Burke are all over 14 points per game.

Those role players will need to score as well, but without Beal making threes and torching Milwaukee the Wizards just won’t have enough firepower to make up for their rough defense. That’s a lot of pressure on a player, but with that new deal Beal signed comes new expectations.

Dec 23, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Washington Wizards forward Markieff Morris (5) defends Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) during the first quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Finale

The Bucks could prove a ton about the team by taking out Washington again here. This is the third consecutive set of two games against the same team, and all three foes are in the Eastern Conference.

The Bucks lost both games against the reigning champion Cleveland Cavaliers, but beat the Chicago Bulls twice. If they beat the Wizards again here, that’s four games over teams in their tier. The Cavs are clearly still a step above the Bucks, but the Bulls and Wizards are not–Milwaukee has proved that recently.

Depending on what happens in a game between the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday, this game could give Milwaukee sole possession of the sixth seed. Not bad, for a team without one of their three best players all year!

Predictions and Leaderboard:

Adam Coffman: Bucks by 5 — 20-7, 286 point differential

Rohan Katti: Bucks by 7 — 20-7, 296 point differential

Adam McGee: Bucks by 8 — 18-10, 298 point differential

Tom Pheister: Bucks by 11 — 18-10, 323 point differential

Jordan Treske: Bucks by 9 — 18-10, 351 point differential

Lukas Harkins: Bucks by 3 — 17-11, 316 point differential

Tim Wray: Bucks by 6 — 17-11, 328 point differential

Ti Windisch: Bucks by 20 — 14-14, 317 point differential

The game is on Monday night at 6:00 p.m. CT, and will be televised on Fox Sports Wisconsin.