Milwaukee Bucks: Best Move They Did, Didn't Make
The Milwaukee Bucks had a disappointing season, finishing 13th in the Eastern Conference one year after finishing sixth. Will their offseason moves launch them back into the playoffs? What is the best move they made, and one they didn’t make?
Success in the NBA is rarely linear. A team that jettisons bad contracts and makes smart draft picks may have a successful offseason and then win fewer games the next season. Conversely, a team may overpay for players during a poorly managed offseason and add wins while capping their ceiling.
The teams that win and lose the offseason are not guaranteed to win and lose during the regular season.
The Milwaukee Bucks took off two seasons ago, rising from the worst team in the East to the sixth seed over one summer. Last season, despite adding the talented Greg Monroe in free agency, they dropped back to 13th. Was their offseason terrible enough to reverse their fortunes? Or is their trajectory measured not in wins but in the growth of their young core?
This offseason the Bucks made less splashy moves, adding Thon Maker and Malcolm Brogdon in the draft while Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic were brought in through free agency. What was the best move they made this offseason, and what move did they leave undone?
Mar 24, 2016; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Matthew Dellavedova (8) advances the ball during the second quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Best Move They Made: Signing Matthew Dellavedova
Before analyzing the deal for Dellavedova, it should be mentioned that the Milwaukee Bucks recently came to terms on a four-year, $100 million extension with Giannis Antetokounmpo. This is absolutely a great deal for Milwaukee, as it locks up their best player — and a potential superstar — below the market rate.
Antetokounmpo took less because he wanted to help the team sign more players in free agency and retain their young core. But what would have been a slightly better move for Milwaukee and Giannis if they truly wanted to be players in free agency was to wait and sign the extension in July, after the Bucks added those free agents, similar to Andre Drummond or Kawhi Leonard in recent years.
Taking less than the max frees up about $1.5 million per season, and more if the cap comes in higher than estimated. If the two sides had waited, the Bucks could have taken advantage of the roughly $18 million difference in Antetokounmpo’s cap hold and his starting salary before re-signing him to go above the cap. While a pending deal for Jabari Parker may have eliminated that option for a small-market Wisconsin team, signing the contract now rather than later bumps this from the Bucks’ best offseason move to second.
The top of Milwaukee’s list of moves is signing the perfect complement to Giannis Antetokounmpo in the backcourt. “Point Giannis” took the league by storm last spring, when coach Jason Kidd moved Antetokounmpo to point guard on offense. In transition and in the half court, Giannis terrorized opponents with his combination of length, size and speed.
At 6’11”, the “Greek Freak” is best served defending larger wings. While he can hold his own against point guards, his increased stride makes it ever so slightly more difficult to change direction on a dime or move laterally to stay in front of the quickest of opposing point guards.
That’s where Dellavedova comes in, signed in July to a four-year, $38 million contract. In Cleveland, Delly honed his craft as an off-ball point guard playing with LeBron James. On offense, the Australian guard spotted up around the perimeter, knocking down 41 percent of his three-pointers, 80 percent of which were assisted by teammates. From the corner he was even more lethal, hitting a hair under 49 percent.
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When LeBron left the floor, Dellavedova displayed his own playmaking skills, averaging 6.5 assists per 36 minutes. He limited his turnovers as well, finishing 10th in the league with a 2.9-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. During the rare times he went to the free throw line, he knocked down 86 percent of his foul shots.
Despite his seamless offensive fit, defense was where Delly distinguished himself, especially in the context of the Cavaliers backcourt. In a rotation with Kyrie Irving and Mo Williams, Dellavedova was far and away the best defender the Cavaliers had. He commonly drew the assignment for the opposing team’s best guard, and threw himself doggedly into the task. In the 2015 NBA Finals, while filling in for the injured Kyrie Irving, Dellavedova hounded Stephen Curry into multiple poor games. In 2016, he replicated the same feat.
For the Bucks, Dellavedova provides their starting lineup the perfect fit Michael Carter-Williams never was. Jason Kidd envisioned a defense that could switch 1-to-4, with four equally sized players that could coexist on both ends of the court. Carter-Williams had the length to fit the mold on defense, and that’s part of the reason the Bucks brought him in. But on offense his complete lack of an outside shot crippled their spacing.
At 6’4” Dellavedova has the length to switch inside of the defensive scheme, and on offense his knockdown perimeter shot will open the floor around Antetokounmpo. He’s known around the league as a high-motor player who will go after steals and loose balls without care for himself. For a Milwaukee group that lost team players in Zaza Pachulia and Jared Dudley, and replaced them with Greg Monroe, this is an upgrade on multiple levels.
With a hamstring injury sidelining Khris Middleton for much of the season, Dellavedova instantly becomes the best shooter in the backcourt. That will become critical for a team with two stars yet to develop their outside shots in Parker and Antetokounmpo. Michael Beasley, acquired in the wake of the Middleton announcement, is not a long-range shooter either. Unless the Bucks acquire another option, Milwaukee’s shooting may rise and fall with Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic.
Dellavedova is not the sort of player to change the fortunes of a franchise. But he is the sort of player to fit perfectly in a hole and allow the more talented players around him to shine. Dellavedova is not the reason the Milwaukee Bucks will return to the playoffs, but he won’t be the reason they miss out.
Apr 8, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Milwaukee Bucks center Miles Plumlee (18) speaks to a referee during the second half of a game against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
Best Move They Didn’t Make: Finding A Legitimate Answer at Center
Two seasons ago the Milwaukee Bucks unleashed the league’s second-best defense, a sea of long limbs that switched everything in sight. Zaza Pachulia was quietly an elite interior defender for them, cleaning up anything that got past the front lines with subtle positioning or drawn charges. The team traded Pachulia to add Greg Monroe, a supposed upgrade at the time.
One year later and the Bucks have a pile of below-average centers and no one to entrust the keys to the backline to. Greg Monroe was an unacceptable soft spot in the middle of their defense, ranking 56th among centers in defensive RPM. Miles Plumlee came in and started the back half of the season and fared little better, while John Henson’s slight frame was unable to withstand the challenges of guarding larger centers.
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This offseason the Bucks’ attempts to address the situation were mediocre at best. Their strategy seemed to be gathering as many incomplete players as possible and hoping one suddenly turned into a quality starter. They signed Mirza Teletovic to be the stretch-4 the team didn’t have, while raw prospect Thon Maker was drafted 10th overall to potentially be the center of the future. Miles Plumlee, who averaged 5.1 points and 3.8 rebounds last year, received a four-year, $50 million extension from the team.
While the number of options the Bucks could have pursued with their cap space wasn’t limitless, it was certainly better than “re-sign Miles Plumlee” and “draft the guy two years away from being two years away.” Nene, Roy Hibbert, Tyler Zeller and Cole Aldrich all signed for relatively cheap deals. Ian Mahinmi signed on to be the backup in Washington; he could have started for the Bucks. Festus Ezeli has a tough injury record, but also elite athletic potential and learned rim protection from one of the best in the league in Andrew Bogut.
Milwaukee has the pieces at other positions to challenge for a playoff spot, and it is certainly possible one of their now many big men blossoms into starting material. It is likewise possible Miles Plumlee, already 28 years old, declines while Thon Maker takes a while to develop. Greg Monroe could be traded as soon as tomorrow, and Mirza Teletovic can shoot but does little else. This team may regret not finding a real solution to their problem at center.
In the end, Milwaukee made smart moves this offseason without jettisoning draft picks or players that made serious contributions last season. That should set them up to improve next season, especially given the age of their core. If they can find a replacement for Middleton’s production the near-term future looks even brighter. But a good offseason doesn’t promise more wins, and the Bucks’ success has yet to be measured.