Milwaukee Bucks 2016-17 Season Outlook: Leaning On Versatility And Length

Apr 8, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) shoots the ball against the Boston Celtics during the first half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

As the Milwaukee Bucks attempt to bounce back after missing the playoffs last season, they will lean on length and versatility in 2016-17

The Milwaukee Bucks are kind of an enigma. Depending on your point of view, they either grossly overachieved in 2014 or grossly underachieved in 2015. While the reality is likely somewhere in between, the Bucks nonetheless remain a fascinating team coming into the 2016 season.

Their identity as a whole has remained essentially unchanged ever since Jason Kidd assumed the helm of the team: length and defense. By assembling a gargantuan collection of wingspans, enough to cast a 747 into a pall of self-doubt, Milwaukee has created a roster teeming with talent…and full of oddly fitting pieces.

I mean, sure, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Greg Monroe and Khris Middleton are all fun players in a vacuum…but playing them together (along with the rest of Milwaukee’s roster) and you have a team that is excellent in bursts but always seems to slog into poor ball movement and sub-standard shooting for extended periods as well.

And while the team had some positive mold-breaking moments, be it Antetokounmpo at point-forward or their unrivaled ability to play the fabled “position-less” basketball, the team was in dire need of a facelift.

Additions: Malcolm Brogdon, Matthew Dellavedova, Thon Maker, Mirza Teletovic and Jason Terry

Losses: Jerryd Bayless, Damien Inglis, OJ Mayo, Johnny O’Bryant and Greivis Vasquez

With that in mind, Milwaukee’s offseason presents somewhat of a mixed bag. On the plus side, Milwaukee was able to add some needed spacing in Mirza Teletovic and Matthew Dellavedova and also added to their collection of intriguing-prospects-built-like-a-tarantula with the selection of Thon Maker.

On the negative side, the team lost arguably their most consistent 3-and-D option in Jerryd Bayless and didn’t really manage to nab a player that will effectively un-gum the offense.

All that being said, ultimately you have to like the look of the Bucks going forward. Sure, the offense is clunky and Greg Monroe does not seem like a long term option, but with future studs in Giannis and Jabari in tow, it’s hard not to like the Milwaukee Bucks’ odds of heading back to the playoffs in the near future.

Apr 10, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker (12) drives to the net as Philadelphia 76ers forward Jerami Grant (39) defends during the first quarter of the game at the Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports

The Depth Chart

The roster for Milwaukee has been in a state of flux for much of the past two years. Since making their surprise run into the playoffs in 2014, the Bucks have made a series of head-scratching moves that have only replicated their strengths (wing span, defense) and done little to assuage their weak points (shooting, spacing).

For instance, the team moved one of their better (if not their best) shot-creator in Brandon Knight and replaced him with the younger, significantly longer Michael Carter-Williams. Sure, Carter-Williams was the reigning rookie of the year but given his deficiencies as a shooter, he offered a redundant 6-foot-7 frame at the expense of much-needed scoring punch as point guard.

Couple that with the team dumping valuable contributors in Ersan Ilysova, Jared Dudley and Zaza Pachulia, and perhaps the team’s regression in 2015 shouldn’t have taken so many of us off guard.

However, the team’s current roster and 2016 offseason seems to be the Bucks’ management finally righting the ship. As of late September, the roster currently stands as:

PG: Matthew Dellavedova, Michael Carter-Williams

SG: Khris Middleton, Jason Terry, Rashad Vaughn, Malcolm Brogdon, Jabari Brown, Orlando Johnson

SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Michael Beasley, Steve Novak, J.J. O’Brien

PF: Jabari Parker, Mirza Teletovic, John Henson, Thon Maker

C: Greg Monroe, Miles Plumlee, Jaleel Roberts

Dellavedova, Terry, Novak, and Teletovic all provide some much needed floor spacing, and their defensive short-comings can be easily masked by the ludicrous length surrounding them. This synergy was exactly what was missing from the 2015 iteration of the Bucks.

As such, I assume the Bucks’ eventual starting lineup to feature Delly, Middleton, Giannis, Parker, and Monroe. Jason Kidd has already shown an affinity for starting Middleton, Giannis, and Parker together as they’re all fairly interchangeable on defense, and gives Milwaukee a logical check against most, if not all, offensive sets.

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With those three locked in, it seems obvious that Monroe will be featured in the post, adding a nice offensive pivot for the freak athleticism on the perimeter, while Delly’s off-ball acumen and three-point proficiency seems to be much more cohesive with the other four than Carter-Williams’ ball dominant, defensive-based skillset.

Unfortunately for Milwaukee, however, Middleton recently had to undergo surgery on his left hamstring and so while the above is the IDEAL starting lineup for Milwaukee, it’s not the reality for at least the next six months.

I’m assuming that the team will attempt to replace his scoring punch by moving Antetokounmpo from the 3 to the 2 and will slot the newly acquired Beasley into the lineup at small forward. This keeps them flexible on the perimeter without sacrificing the little amount of scoring they already had in the lineup, which they couldn’t honestly afford to compromise.

The team could also look at moving Giannis and Parker to the 2 and 3, respectively, and starting Teletovic at the four as a stretch option. The post defense (or lack thereof) would leave a bad taste in basketball purists’ mouths but it could potentially be the Bucks’ most lethal offensive set, as opposing fours would have to leave the paint to chase him along the baseline, leaving Monroe to work against one helpless defender in the paint.

Either one, honestly, is a defensible choice, and it’s hard to say there’s one definitively “correct” or one definitively “incorrect” option. Where the depth chart becomes convoluted, however, is trying to figure out how the bench will be utilized.

Carter-Williams is probably the most overall talented player in the second unit but is also the most awkward fit. He’ll likely be at his most efficient when playing with skilled off-ball scorers and other strong defenders, similar to how the Big Three-era Boston Celtics utilized Rajon Rondo.

Something along the lines of Carter-Williams, Terry, Novak, Henson, and Plumlee seems like a perfectly usable bench unit, and if you slot in Dellavedova and Giannis, instead of Novak and Henson (as a means of staggering the starters rest minutes), it becomes even more viable.

In short, the Milwaukee Bucks have a ton of intriguing options littering their roster. While there are some awkward fits beyond the starters, it seems that the metaphorical cupboard that is this team’s depth chart has been stocked with enough unique skillsets that the Bucks should look a lot more like the 2014 version of themselves versus the 2015 version.

Jun 24, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Bucks general manager John Hammond (L), second round pick Malcolm Brogdon (13), first round pick Thon Maker (7), and head coach Jason Kidd (R) pose for a photo during an introduction press conference at the Milwaukee Bucks training facility. Mandatory Credit: Sam Caravana- Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via USA TODAY Sports

Strengths: Versatility

Ever since the Golden State Warriors unlocked basketball nirvana by employing several multi-skilled tweener-type players, such as Draymond Green, the rest of the league has been lusting for the same sort of “position-less” basketball. Milwaukee is one of the small handfuls of teams that can feasibly pull this off.

As alluded to in the roster discussion, Milwaukee’s favorite sets are centered upon Middleton, Antetokounmpo, and Parker at the 2 through 4 spots. More often than not, Parker will take on the primary on-ball defensive duties due to A.) His combination of athleticism and absurd reach and B.) He’s kind of awful away from the ball. In turn, Giannis and Middleton are then free to switch as deemed necessary in order to ensure that Parker maximizes his time on-ball.

Furthermore, this same sort of freak athleticism allows for Milwaukee to set up unique sets that can help mask some of their aforementioned shooting woes. Whether it’s the Greek Freak operating at point-forward, Jabari Parker and Greg Monroe operating in the league’s tallest pick and roll, or Khris Middleton in the open court, this is an extremely hard team to check, because of the many unique and diverse ways they can attack opposing defenses.

Then consider the fact that the bench affords the team even MORE flexibility than just beyond what the starting lineup offers. Michael Carter-Williams is a 6-foot-7 point guard that can defend everything from jitterbug point guards like Isaiah Thomas to stretch fours like Ryan Anderson.

Mirza Teletovic is the key to a poor man’s death lineup out east. Hell, Thon Maker can apparently change his age at will.

If the Bucks are to succeed this season, flexibility is the name of the game.

Weakness: The Backcourt

It was already a somewhat shaky spot for Milwaukee BEFORE Khris Middleton went down with a torn hamstring. Now suddenly the Bucks are looking squarely at either Matthew Dellavedova or Michael Carter-Williams as their best guard on opening night. Sure, both are perfectly acceptable role players that will absolutely contribute to several Bucks victories.

But when you consider how one dimensional the Bucks are about to become without any reliable shot-creating guard? It could get tough for Milwaukee FAST.

I mean what is Milwaukee going to do when defenses pack the paint and deny Monroe on the block? The knee-jerk reaction is that the Bucks will go to their tried and true Point-Greek offense and hope open jumpers will pull the defense out of the paint. After all, that’s essentially how the Cavaliers nearly pulled off a miracle upset against the Warriors in the 2015 NBA Finals, despite Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love going down earlier in the playoffs (with Dellavedova playing a critical role in that to boot).

But it’s not that simple.

Because while the Cavs did give the Warriors a scare…that’s really all it was. A scare. The Warriors quickly shifted to a smaller, faster lineup. Golden State then chose to switch on every single screen, dared role players to beat their All Star-caliber athletes, and just did their best to make life hard on LeBron James.

Teams will quickly adjust to the Bucks, playing their small-ball lineups and watching as Giannis struggles to carry the entire offense while Michael Carter-Williams clanks jumper after jumper from 18 feet.

Milwaukee isn’t denying this shortcoming, though. They’ve already made clear that they’re looking to deal Greg Monroe as he has been overpaid and under-delivering ever since signing in the summer of 2015. The caveat, however, is that they won’t accept any deal not involving a shooting guard.

In the modern NBA, you have to have strong guard play. Unfortunately for the Bucks, their guards don’t even look to be replacement level. That has to be rectified if they want to compete at a playoff level.

Mar 14, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) drives against the Memphis Grizzlies during the second half at FedExForum. Memphis defeated Milwaukee 96-83. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Milwaukee’s MIP: Giannis

With all of these moving parts, the Milwaukee Bucks’ season is ultimately going to live and die by the continued development of Giannis Antetokounmpo. So much of EVERYTHING that Milwaukee does is going to be revolving around the Greek Freak.

I’ve mentioned him at point forward ad nauseum, which is fair, given that Milwaukee is going to run this set into the ground. It’s obvious given their major offseason signings, particularly at point guard. They didn’t sign ball handlers and distributors. They signed players who are comfortable off-ball, who do the majority of their damage spacing the floor and playing defense.

As such, the team’s offense is going to play heavily into Antetokounmpo’s strengths. In addition to the point forward set, you’re going to set a large amount of slashing to the rim from the wings, pick and pops, and any other host of attacks that lean on Giannis’ passing and the surrounding pieces’ athleticism.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bucks are going to look to switch everything. Giannis is a key catalyst here. His wing-span and speed will allow the Bucks to play guys like Delly and Monroe longer minutes because he can compensate for so many of their defensive shortcomings.

On a differently constructed team, Monroe’s slow play recognition and frequent poor positioning would make him a complete liability on defense. Giannis, however, masks this because his 19-foot wingspan (give or take a few feet) seals off otherwise open passing lanes and essentially cuts the court in half.

This is huge for a team that needs big minutes from Monroe, given their lack of true shot creators on offense.

Obviously, Parker and Middleton (when he’s healthy) are important for Milwaukee. The loss of Middleton alone has already drastically altered the Bucks’ backcourt outlook. But when it comes to Giannis? There’s absolutely no way for the Bucks to do what they want to without the Greek Freak. He’s integral to literally everything.

A Successful Season For The Bucks Would Entail…

But with that in mind, what does a successful season look like for Milwaukee? Because of the volatility between their last two seasons, they are a tough team to project.

In my opinion, they don’t necessarily have to make the playoffs in a quickly improving Eastern Conference but they need to at least be in the discussion. There’s a cluster of teams that are all going to be hovering in the 40-45 wins range, ranging from the Atlanta Hawks to the Charlotte Hornets. The Bucks, by all measures, are just as talented as those teams.

Obviously, youth and some potential roster shakeups (*cough* GregMonroe *cough*) could cause the team to ultimately fall short of the playoffs. But if they can make a strong charge at the post-season, while still bringing back a young core in Antetokounmpo, Middlton, and Parker? You would have to feel pretty good about that as a Bucks fan going into next summer.

Sept 26, 2016, St. Francis, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks players Michael Carter-Williams (5) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) wait to be photographed during media day.. Angela Peterson/Journal Sentinel via USA TODAY NETWORK

Prediction

Ultimately, the Milwaukee Bucks are somewhat of a sweetheart of mine. They’re unconventional, tons of fun when clicking, and kind of goofy. If I had written this preview about a month ago, I would have made the bold claim that they’ll be in competition for a home playoff series (yea, I went there).