Miami Heat: 5 storylines to watch in the 2017 NBA Draft Combine

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1. Johnathan Motley's return from meniscus injury

Though Johnathan Motley isn't a recognizable name to the casual NBA Draft observer, he's still an interesting prospect. Especially for teams in need of help at the 4.

Motley's a 6-foot-9 power forward with a reported 7-foot-3.5 wingspan. He's long, agile and possesses some skill in the mid-to-high post, but still hasn't been able to extend his range to the three-point line.

As a junior, the former Bear averaged 17.3 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.1 blocks per game on .522/.281/.699 shooting splits. His best performance came on Jan. 17, when he dropped 32 points and 20 boards on Texas' 21st-ranked defense (per KenPom) and fellow first round big man prospect, Jarrett Allen.

Although presently Draft Express (DX) has him slotted as the 41st overall pick to the Charlotte Hornets, he did peak as high as 23 on their mock-ups in mid-March. With a good showing in the combine, he's capable of jumping up the Heat's draft board.

Over the next few days, Motley has to prove a couple of things. First, that his injured meniscus, which he tore during Baylor's Sweet 16 loss to South Carolina, is fully healthy. According to DX, he was just recently cleared to practice.

Next, Motley has to show NBA teams that he has stretch-4 potential, which won't be easy considering the low volume of attempts during his career (shot 49 threes total in his three years at Baylor). Nonetheless, his shooting form is far from broken, so he's not a total lost cause either.

He's one to keep an eye on for Heat fans.

Next: A Wing's 3-Point Shooting

 

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2. Is Justin Jackson's shooting for real?

North Carolina's small forward is one of the draft's fastest-rising prospects.

From mid-second round to late lottery on DX's mock-ups, no one has helped themselves more in 2016-17 than Justin Jackson.

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He's got great size for a 3 (reportedly 6-foot-8) and can score from anywhere. Jackson's great in transition, can get to the basket despite semi-questionable ball handling, and can finish in traffic. His stock has risen most, though, thanks to his improvements from three.

After shooting sub-30 percent from deep as a freshman and sophomore, he improved that mark to 37 percent as a junior.

Two porous years and one good one from beyond the arc. Is that enough to accept Jackson being a capable three-point shooter as an absolute? Probably not.

What's more, in postseason play (in both the ACC and NCAA Tournament), he regressed back to hitting 31.7 percent of his threes. As the competition got tougher, he was still able to average over 18 points per game, but his three-point prowess wilted.

That makes the combine vitally important for him. If he can prove to NBA teams that he can really shoot it, he'll go in the lottery; if he doesn't, he may fall back to the 20s.

Early on, he's apparently been impressive.

Take it for what it's worth, but currently, DX has Jackson going to Miami at No. 14, giving us even more reason to watch him closely over the next few days. He would give the Heat size on the wing, scoring and defense so yes, I'd be very much okay with that coming to fruition.

As long as his three-point shooting is real.
Next: Another Wing's Athleticism
 

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3. Luke Kennard's questionable athleticism

Duke's Luke Kennard was the most efficient scorer in college basketball in 2016-17.

The former Blue Devil averaged 19.5 points on tidy .490/.438/.856 percent shooting splits as a sophomore. His true shooting percentage (62.9) and effective field-goal percentage (57.9) also impressed, especially when you account for the high volume of jumpers he attempted (only 18.4 percent of his shots came at the rim, per Hoop Math).

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Basically, Kennard is a big-time scorer who excelled while playing in the toughest conference in America. So why isn't he a surefire lottery pick?

One overly-simplified explanation is his athleticism. He doesn't have the quickest first step and won't be throwing it down on NBA defenders anytime soon. Though he does make up for it some with his scoring, his average physical tools put a cap on him as a prospect.

But what if he were to show up at the combine and surprise his detractors with impressive, albeit unexpected, results in athletic drills?

Potential NBA players get their power, agility and speed measured through 3/4-court sprints, the vertical jump test and lane agility drills, among other examinations. If Kennard were to produce higher numbers than expected in those tests, he would shoot up draft boards.

Looking at this from a Heat perspective, do they really need to add another combo guard type, considering they're likely to re-sign Dion Waiters?

No, probably not. But if they were drafting solely based on best player available, Kennard deserves to be up for discussion, especially if it turns out he's more athletic than presently given credit for.
Next: A Power Forward's Measurements
 

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4. Does John Collins have the physical tools to become a plus-defender?

John Collins is basically the power forward version of Kennard: an extremely efficient scorer with potential limitations that may hurt his prospects at the next level.

After a quiet freshman campaign, Collins exploded as a sophomore. In 2016-17, he became the second player in ACC history (dating back to 1992-93) to average at least 19.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks while shooting over 60.0 percent from the floor. The other player to do it was some guy called Tim Duncan.

Offensively, even though Collins operates mostly from the within the mid-post, he's still a monster. The questions about his next-level outlook arise when we look at the other end of the floor. Because even despite his high block average, his biggest weakness is his defense.

His Wake Forest team finished the season ranked an incredibly low 176th overall in defensive efficiency (via KenPom). That's just absurdly bad. And though it can't all be pinned on Collins, he certainly didn't do much to fix it.

Thanks to his quick feet and sturdy frame, he's got the tools to become a passable defender, at the very least. The aspect of the combine that will be important for him is getting new measurements.

As of right now, the last time Collins' length was recorded (according to DX) was at the 2013 Nike Elite 100 Camp, when he measured in with a T-Rex-like 6-foot-8 wingspan.

If that number is still sub-7-foot today, we can forget about him ever defending at a high level in the NBA. But if that measurement proves to no longer be accurate, he would make a lot of sense for the power-forward-needy Heat at No. 14. After all, he's one of the best the position has to offer in this draft class.
Next: Will This Per-40-Minute Stud Shine Against Elite Competition?
 

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5. Will Zach Collins look the part against elite competition?

If we were to get a look at the Heat's actual draft board, I'm almost certain Zach Collins would be near the top. Among big men in this draft class, Gonzaga's stretch-5 has one of the highest ceilings.

For a 7-footer, Collins is extremely agile. That quickness coupled with his nimble feet not only helps his post-game (which is already pretty impressive), but also his potential on defense.
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Thanks to his athletic tools, he projects as a guy who can both protect the paint and chase around modern NBA floor-spacing power forwards. Collins has excellent instincts defensively, as well, which are shown best with his 4.1-block-per-40-minute average.

In fact, his entire per-40 minute stat line (23.2 points, 13.6 rebounds and 0.6 threes) is otherworldly for a kid who is still just 19 years old.

The main issue with the former Bulldog's draft prospects is the amount of playing time he received as a freshman. Because Gonzaga was loaded with upperclassmen talent in 2016-17, Collins played a mere 17.3 minutes nightly.

Thus, seeing how he fares playing 5-on-5 against the most elite young talent the NCAA has to offer will be important for pro scouts. If he shines, he'll go top 10.

So as Heat fans, we should root for him to look… flustered in that portion of the combine. Which, when I think about it, feels kinda messed up to admit. But I don't care.
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In actuality, we're totally pulling for you, Zach! We just want you to slide far enough to land in Miami.

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