Did Mavericks' Game 2 win without Luka solidify a series victory?

When the Dallas Mavericks announced that Luka Dončić would be sidelined for Game 2 of their first-round playoff series with the Jazz, their odds to advance plummeted substantially.

Only Joel Embiid had a higher usage rate than Dončić during the 2021-22 regular season, and one can argue that no player's offensive imprint is larger on his team's than the three-time All-Star. He's the Mavs' consummate do-it-all commander, and when he's absent, Dallas' lineup is irrevocably altered. 

That theme showed itself during the squad's 99-93 loss to Utah in the series opener Saturday.

But four quarters, eight Maxi Kleber 3s and 41 Jalen Brunson points later, the Mavs were deadlocked in a 1-1 series tie following a spirited 110-104 home victory on Monday. And many onlookers believe Dallas owns clear possession of the series' momentum with Dončić's dynamic presence projected to return for Thursday's Game 3.

However, that projection remains just that — a projection.

"There are decisions to be made," Mavs first-year head coach Jason Kidd said regarding Dončić following Monday's win.

"He's in a great place," he continued. "I think he’s definitely going in the right direction. He’s doing more each day. He’s been happy, he’s been joking. He’s doing everything he can do up to this point, and hopefully he can play soon. But if he can’t play, we’ve got to play without him."

Dončić single-handedly elevates Dallas' success rate when he's on the floor.

The Mavs' 22-25 (.468) record without the three-time All-Star morphs into a winning one (148-116, .561) with him in the mix. They also see spikes in points per game (111.8 vs. 109.6), +/- rating (+2.2 vs. +0.1) and offensive rating (114.7 vs. 112.1) when Dončić is in the lineup.

How much longer can Dallas survive without its superstar?

Well, in Nick Wright's mind, Dallas advancing to the next round is already a foregone conclusion despite the uncertainty surrounding Dončić.

"We're about to get the best point guard of the last 15 years against the next-best point guard of the next 15 years," Wright said Tuesday on "First Things First."

"All [the Mavs] needed was a split to roll, and for Luka to come back. And he's going to come back. … Then all of a sudden, it's 2-2 at worst. So yes, the Jazz blew it because that's what they do. … The Mavs are going to win this series, and then we're going to get Mavs-Suns."

Chris Broussard wasn't so gung-ho to pack it in for Utah though.

"I'm not putting the Jazz to bed — It's not over," Broussard said.

"It's 1-1, and Utah is a bad road team. They were the fourth-worst road team in the playoffs. So the fact that they're going home 1-1, they're not feeling terrible about themselves. I think they're a team that's disjointed, and not fully there mentally. They blew an opportunity to go up 2-0 without Luka, but Dallas has some work to do still."

Colin Cowherd agreed that the series was Dallas' to win, but focused on Utah's long-time shortcomings as a franchise. According to "The Herd" host, the Jazz are consistently a "good" team — nothing more, nothing less.

"I see a well-run organization, a rabid fanbase and a remarkable defensive player in Rudy Gobert. But one injury to Joe Ingles or [Bojan] Bogdanavic, and they're not a championship team. In fact, they're not even a conference championship team. In Quin Snyder's eight seasons, he has no conference finals. It's not because he's not a good coach, or they don't have a good front office or good players. There's just no excess. It's got a ceiling." 

Dončić's timetable to return remains up in the air, but if Dallas can get fractions of the showings it did from its role players on Monday, and add Dončić back in the fold, Utah's going to have an incredibly tough task ahead of it.

And so might the rest of the West.