Los Angeles Lakers 2023 NBA title odds on move after free agency

There was a time early last season when a reeling Los Angeles Lakers squad could be had at 200/1 in the NBA Finals odds market. That’s what happens when a team goes 2-10 in its first 12 games, including seven double-digit losses.

LeBron James & Co. ultimately righted the ship. The Lakers won a play-in game to earn a spot in the NBA playoffs, then advanced to the Western Conference finals, knocking out defending NBA champion Golden State along the way.

The run gave oddsmakers a good sweat. The Lakers always get plenty of action in championship futures odds, even when things are going sideways, and they were a big liability for multiple sportsbooks.

L.A.’s playoff surge is carrying over into early wagering on the 2023-24 NBA Finals market. BetMGM sports trader Hal Egeland gives his offseason insights on Lakers odds and action thus far.

Carry-Over Effect

The Lakers went a modest 43-39 in the regular season but finished on a 9-2 run. So Team LeBron was warming up even before the playoffs started, which proved necessary, since L.A. needed to beat Minnesota in the play-in round just to guarantee that playoff bid.

Then the Lakers took out Memphis and Golden State, winning both series in six games, before running into the Nuggets’ buzz saw. Los Angeles got swept 4-0 in the Western Conference finals, but the impression for next season had already been made.

"The Lakers showed that they were a title contender during their playoff run," Egeland said. "Things really started to click for the Lakers in the second half of the season. They restructured at the trade deadline, getting a key contributor in Rui Hachimura, among others and parted ways with Russell Westbrook, who never seemed to work with the Lakers.

"What may have been the most important revelation of their run was the performance of Austin Reaves. Father Time comes for everyone, even LeBron James. It was clear the Lakers needed someone else who could create his own shot and help take some of the offensive load off of LeBron. Austin Reaves was the answer."

As such, the Lakers’ recent re-signing of Reaves to a four-year extension gave an immediate boost to the team’s NBA Finals odds at BetMGM. Los Angeles opened among the top handful of teams at +1200, then slid back just a bit to +1600.

Now, with Reaves remaining in the fold, the Lakers are the +1100 sixth choice.

"Reaves was the biggest reason for the move," Egeland said, while noting the re-signing of D'Angelo Russell certainly helped. "But adding Gabe Vincent and Cam Reddish feels like a continuation of the trade deadline from last year — getting role players who can fit with their stars, as opposed to just going after the flashy names.

"From a bird’s-eye view, the Lakers’ roster is slightly improved from last year."

Always a Popular Play

As noted above, the Lakers get plenty of attention every year from public/recreational bettors. Much of that comes from the Las Vegas market, but L.A. — particularly with LeBron still playing on — has a nationwide betting following, no question.

That’s something BetMGM has to wrangle with each year when it comes to the Lakers’ championship odds.

"We’re well aware of the Lakers’ popularity, and it certainly is in the back of our minds when pricing up their futures," Egeland said. "But it doesn’t have a massive impact on our pricing. I’m sure we could post +800 right now and still take Lakers money, but we prefer to offer the fair price.

"There may be a slight lean [toward the Lakers] as the season progresses, but we don’t want customers feeling the need to go elsewhere to place a bet on their favorite team."

At the moment, bettors are perfectly comfortable playing Los Angeles to win the title.

"The Lakers are our most-bet team in terms of tickets, and in terms of money, they’re third behind only the  Nuggets and Heat," Egeland said, alluding to last season’s NBA Finals participants. "Since Reaves re-signed, the Lakers are the most-bet-on team, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s due to his signing. Betting on the NBA has slowed down overall, but as the season gets closer, I’d certainly expect more of the same action from bettors."

Translation: Like last season, when the Lakers were BetMGM’s biggest liability in the NBA Finals market, it’s extremely likely that LeBron & Co. will again be a big liability next season.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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