Looking at VORP shows the Memphis Grizzlies' drafting struggles

Dec 3, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Former basketball players Jerry West and Oscar Robertson sit court side during the game between the UCLA Bruins and the Kentucky Wildcats at Pauley Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

In a recent article by Polygraph, they re-drafted using VORP with the past twenty drafts from 1988 to 2008. How did the Memphis Grizzlies stack up?

In this article, I’ll be taking a look at how the Memphis Grizzlies stacked up in those drafts and how well they drafted for their position in each draft. I’ll break it up using the previous four general managers in Grizzlies history who had complete control in those drafts. None of the general managers had super long stints and a few had very short stints so be careful how much you look into this.

Stu Jackson (1994-2000)

Drafted Player	Actual Pick	Year	Overall Pick	Actual VORP Position
Bryant Reeves	1-6	1995	6	30
Lawrence Moten	2-9	1995	36	24
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	1-3	1996	3	9
Roy Rogers	1-22	1996	22	27
Chris Robinson	2-22	1996	51	26
Antonio Daniels	1-4	1997	4	14
Mike Bibby	1-2	1998	2	5
J.R. Henderson	2-27	1998	56	VORP too low
Obinna Ekezie	2-8	1999	37	34
Antwain Smith	2-22	1999	51	VORP too low

Stu Jackson became the first general manager of the then, Vancouver Grizzlies. Jackson had a lot of early picks, so his average pick position was 18.11 if you exclude J.R. Henderson and Antwain Smith because of their low VORPs which caused them to be unranked in the re-draft, was Jackson a good drafter? Unfortunately, no, with an average redraft position of 20.66. At first glance, it may not seem like horrible only redrafting on average of two positions behind actual draft position, but its probably worse than what it really shows. Jackson had some second rounders save his average draft position in Chris Robinson and Lawrence Moten. He had four picks within the first six picks of different drafts. Those picks averaged out to a position of 14.5 per pick. Part of the reason the Grizzlies couldn’t consistently compete in their early years was because Jackson was whiffing on his top picks. Those top picks are supposed to be the players you build around and become stars in the league. Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Mike Bibby are the only ones of those who did that and Bibby hit his peak with another team. If Jackson could have nailed even one of those picks, the Grizzlies could have looked different with say a Michael Finley or Tracy McGrady.

Billy Knight (2000-2001)

Draft Player	Actual Pick	Year	Overall Pick	Actual VORP Position
Stromile Swift	1-2	2000	2	17
Pau Gasol	1-3	2001	3	1
Shane Battier	1-6	2001	6	2
Will Solomon	2-5	2001	33	30

Antonis Fotsis

2-20

2001

VORP too low

Billy Knight was in control of the Grizzlies for two seasons as general manager. One of the seasons, he was in charge happened of the Grizzlies’ debut in Memphis. He got fired after the one dismal season in Memphis, but ironically, he may have been the best drafter of all the general managers in the history of the Grizzlies. He picked better for his position in the three picks from 2001 that counted for the re-draft. His one pick from 2000, Stromile Swift, may have been a slight bust, but we’ll give him a pass for that as the pick still had a first round re-draft grade on it and Swift was a very solid player for the Grizzlies. In his one year as general manager, Knight drafted the top two players in the 2001 draft. Gasol became the star of the Grizzlies until he was traded for his brother, the next star of the Grizzlies. Shane Battier had a nice career for Memphis that ended up leading to the Grizzlies obtaining Rudy Gay. The 2001 draft kept talent in Memphis and set up the future for what it is today so something could be said for Billy Knight’s short tenure as general manager of the Grizzlies.

Jerry West (2002-2007)

Draft Player	Actual Pick	Year	Overall Pick	Actual VORP Position
Drew Gooden	1-4	2002	4	13
Robert Archibald	2-3	2002	32	VORP too low
Troy Bell	1-16	2003	16	VORP too low
Sergei Lishouk	2-20	2004	49	VORP too low
Hakim Warrick	1-19	2005	19	42
Rudy Gay	1-8	2006	8	5
Kyle Lowry	1-24	2006	24	2

Who would’ve guessed that the worst drafter out of all the Memphis Grizzlies’ general managers would one of the greatest players of all-time, Jerry West? I don’t think I need to average out the pick positions as you can clearly see he struggled getting value out of his picks. West took over the team for four drafts and of those four, only one draft had a player improve on his position in the re-draft. One of those players, Kyle Lowry, ended up playing for the Grizzlies for only two seasons. although that wasn’t West’s fault. Rudy Gay had a solid career with the Grizzlies and was there when things first started to look up and the team started contending. His other draft picks all ended up struggling as Memphis Grizzlies. Drew Gooden played one season with the Grizzlies so he doesn’t count either. West’s next three picks all had VORPs too low to re-draft and one of those includes a first rounder in Troy Bell. Hakim Warrick, Jerry West’s other first rounder, never developed with his athleticism and was gone after his four-year rookie contract was up.

Chris Wallace (2007-Present)

Draft Player	Actual Pick	Year	Overall Pick	Actual VORP Position
Mike Conley Jr.	1-4	2007	4	5
O.J. Mayo	1-3	2008	3	17
Donte Greene	1-28	2008	28	38

I could give Chris Wallace the benefit of doubt since only two years are being rated here, but luckily, we get to look into the crystal glass and judge some of his picks since 2008 even if Polygraph doesn’t want to go that far. With proof in the previous three listed picks, Wallace has struggled as a drafter. Recently, a majority of his guys haven’t it made it through their rookie contracts before getting cut including his latest victim, Jordan “I can’t stay healthy enough to see the court” Adams. Every one of his picks that got re-drafted ended up lower than the original draft pick. Mike Conley only slipped one spot and has been huge to the success of the organization, but the rest of Wallace’s draft picks can’t say the same. Wallace has done an excellent job fielding contending teams, but it makes you wonder how he could do if he could draft. What if Chris Wallace had never traded Kevin Love, for example, and stuck with him? Marc Gasol, Kevin Love and Mike Conley dynasty sure would have been fun to watch.

Overall

Mar 27, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace and guard Vince Carter watch during the fourth quarter against the Golden State Warriors at FedExForum. Warriors defeated the Grizzlies 107-84. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Are the Grizzlies good drafters? If you take out all the picks who had VORPs too low to redraft (which includes 16th pick Troy Bell), the Memphis Grizzlies still draft worse than original position. The original draft position averages out to roughly the pick 15.5, while the re-draft position comes into play at 18. I don’t find it very surprising as three out of the four general managers would be rated as bad drafters and the only good drafter lasted two seasons with the organization. Will Chris Wallace improve upon this problem and turn the Memphis Grizzlies into one of the best organizations at finding talent, starting with the picks up Wade Baldwin IV and Deyonta Davis? Only time will tell.