Is Harry Giles worth the risk of a Miami Heat draft pick?

Draft experts believe Harry Giles could be a steal, despite knee injuries that threatened his early career.

Often times the word potential is all the NBA Draft is based off of. Particularly when teams venture outside of the top five picks, as the Miami Heat seem poised to do with 13-game win streak under their belt. The downside is that the front office has not looked great with a number of their first round selections.

Therein lies the problem with Miami’s latest fortunes.

According to the Sporting News’ Sean Deveney, the Heat have gone from trying to trade away assets to trying to bring one in for a playoff run–preferably in the form of a power forward. Which could equal more wins, putting more pressure on the organization’s scouts to come up with the right reach for the roster.

If you ask ESPN’s draft expert, Chad Ford, Miami’s postseason efforts will come up considerably short. At least based on his latest mock draft that finds the Heat falling to the tail end of the lottery with the No. 10 pick. A range too deep to net a Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, Dennis Smith, Malik Monk, Jonathan Issac or Josh Jackson. Ford has his eyes elsewhere though:

“Harry Giles remains the trickiest prospect in the draft to evaluate… When he plays 14 minutes or more, good things seem to happen in flashes. But overall, he still doesn’t look like the Giles we saw in high school… I don’t think the Heat (or Wolves, for that matter) should pass on him, though. He’s shaking off a lot of rust right now, but when he gets fully healthy, he has superstar potential.”

It is a little strange to hear a 5.4 points, 4.4 rebounds per game guy talked about in terms of being a future star in the league, however Ford believes that if Giles is given the proper time to heal, he could have the Joel Embiid-effect on a team.

Those thoughts may not register with fans who have not followed Giles from the time he was being considered a potential No. 1 pick coming out of high school. At that stage, the 6-foot-11 power forward was viewed as the perfect prospect, due to his ability to play both ends of the floor at an elite level. Two ACL tears (both knees), an MCL tear, meniscus tear and an arthroscopic procedure, later, has put that future potential in doubt.

Yet Ford still believes, “His work ethic and toughness fit Miami’s culture perfectly.” What does not fit is his abilities–or lack there of–as a stretch-4.

Dec 19, 2016; Durham, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Harry Giles (1) drives the ball against Tennessee State Tigers forward Ken’Darrius Hamilton (4) in the first half of their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. This is the first time that Duke Blue Devils forward Harry Giles (1) has played in a game this season. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

Giles’ game is not necessarily suited for the role that Bosh was altered into playing. A role that everyone knows is needed to give Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside space to operate in the paint.

Giles has not even attempted a three-point shot in the first 13 games of his collegiate career. But perhaps he will develop a bit of a face up game, à la a young Amar’e Stoudemire after knee surgeries stripped him of much of his athleticism. Because the last thing the Heat need is another injured Duke player who cannot put the ball in the basket (sorry Justise Winslow).

The risk is usually higher than the reward in these situations, but if Giles can work back into his old form the Heat would come away with a steal. Even if it is not in line with Pat Riley’s rebuild.