Into the Bears' Den: the most underrated and overrated players in the NBA

Dec 23, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) shoots the ball over Memphis Grizzlies forward Tony Allen (9) in the fourth quarter at Verizon Center. The Wizards won 100-91. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA arguably sparks more debate than any other in the league, specifically when comparing players. For this Monday edition of “Into the Bears’ Den,” our writers picked the most underrated and overrated players in the league.

Writers that participated in this Monday-edition NBA roundtable:

Some picks will shock you, others will make perfect sense, whether explained through statistics or the eye test. Let’s get started!

Ian Pierno (@IanPierno)

Feb 20, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) dribbles the ball as Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving (2) defends in the first quarter at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Overrated: Kyrie Irving

Related Story: MIke Conley and Kyrie Irving have the exact same advanced stats

Underrated: John Wall

John Wall has been hidden on a dysfunctional team in the nation’s capital, but he’s a once in a generation talent. The Raleigh-native can drop buckets in a variety of ways, he increased his 3-point percentage to 35.1 last year and is one top guards in the league when finishing at the rim .

Most of all, though, he’s the sole source of offense for the Washington Wizards. Wall averaged 10.2 assists per game last year, and those assists created 24.7 points per game for the Wizards. Only Rajon Rondo created more points per game via assists than Wall, though, it’s not hard to argue Rondo’s statistics in Sacramento, particularly his passing, don’t hold as much weight. 18.6 percent of Wall’s passes turned into assists (fourth in the NBA), a stat that’s even more impressive when noting that Wall led the league in touches per game with 98.7.

However, it’s not just passing that makes Wall special, but also his scoring ability. Averaging 19.9 points per game, Wall excelled at shooting jumpers, but also blowing past defenders with his sneaky speed. Of 22 players to log at least 35 minutes per game last season, Wall was fourth in average speed on offense, going 4.42 miles per hour. When he drives, he knows when to go for the finish, shooting 50.4 percent on drives while also getting just over 11 percent of his assists when building up momentum in getting to the hoop.

Before we finish up, we can’t forget his defense. Having some of the quickest hands in the league, Wall posted a 2.5 steal percentage. His 1.0 defensive box plus/minus doesn’t jump off the stat sheet, but it does when you consider “elite” point guards—including Steph Curry (0.1), James Harden (-0.4), Mike Conley (-0.5), Kemba Walker (-0.6), Derrick Rose (-0.2), Kyrie Irving (-1.4), Damian Lillard (-2.2) and Isaiah Thomas (-2.6)—posted far worse numbers, it puts his two-way value in context. 

Only John Stockton, Jason Kidd, Chris Paul, Magic Johnson, Brevin Knight and Rajon Rondo have had more seasons with an assist ratio above 40 and a steal ratio above 2.0 while also scoring at least 19 points per game than Wall. Considering Wall has only been in the league six years, it’s fair to assume he has a pretty good shot at rising up the ranks.

Parker Fleming (@PAKA_FLOCKA)

Oct 21, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Ricky Rubio (9) dribbles the ball as Charlotte Hornets guard Jeremy Lamb (3) defends during the third quarter at Target Center. The Timberwolves won 109-74. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Overrated: Brook Lopez

Brook Lopez is an excellent post scorer, but what else does he do? At 7’0” and 275 pounds, he’s an awful rebounder (7.4 career rebounds per game average). For a player that commands so many double teams out of the post, he has extremely low assist numbers (1.4 career assists per game average). On the other end of the court, he has a career defensive rating of 108. While he’s a superb scoring center, it is ludicrous to say that he’s a top-10 center.

Underrated: Ricky Rubio

In today’s NBA, shooting is an essential skill for great point guards. That has been the biggest knock on Ricky Rubio. His shooting percentages are horrendous (36.8 percent from the field, 31.8 percent from 3), but people overlook his elite passing and defense. He averages 8.3 assists per game for his career and was third in assist ratio at 41.4 while posting a steady 17.7 usage rate.. On the other end of the court, he is a straight thief at 2.2 steals per games and a steal rate of 3.3. He is only 25, and shooting is a skill that can always be developed. We have seen it with guys like Jason Kidd. If Ricky Rubio develops a jump shot, he’d be a top-5 point guard (don’t @ me).

Taylor Buckley (@sctaylor94)

Nov 19, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) and Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul (3) reach for the ball in the second half of the game at Staples Center. The Warriors won 124-117. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Overrated: Draymond Green

I’m sure you are wondering how can I say the fourth best option on a winning team is overrated. Well he is, Green is nothing more than a glorified system player. He benefits from being surrounded by two of the best shooters in the game, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Now add in the Slim Reaper, Kevin Durant, and Green will have so much room to work with. Sure Green is a good player, but he benefits more from his teammates than DeAndre Jordan does his. Defenses have to shrug off of him because of the weapons the Warriors possess. If you put Green on most any other team, he wouldn’t be the “superstar” people say he is. 

Underrated: Chris Paul 

As Ian was quick to point out in our BSB Slack, CP3 being underrated sounds ridiculous. Ian’s exacts words were “You are not writing about a first-team All-NBA player being underrated.” “CP3 is far from being under the radar,” “Get out of here,” and “That’s ridiculous.” But in today’s game, CP3 is very underrated. You constantly hear about how he can’t lead a team past the second round in the playoffs or that he can’t play on the same level as the likes of Curry, Westbrook, Lillard, Kyrie and Wall—which is ridiculous. Last season with Blake Griffin ou,t CP3 stepped his game up to a crazy level, he averaged 21.6 ppg, 10.3 apg, 4.6 rpg and 2.1 spg. That’s playing at a crazy elite level without a real second option. In the era of exceptional point guards, Chris Paul has always been the best or second best point guard at any given time, and yet always seems to overlooked when talking about elite point guards. It’s criminal. If it weren’t for a terrible final few minutes against Oklahoma City a few years ago or ill-timed injuries (fellow staff writer note: or blowing a 3-1 lead to the Rockets), the “Point God” would surely have a Conference Finals under his belt and we probably wouldn’t be talking about this. But until he makes it past the second round of the NBA playoffs, critics will continue to overlook and underrate him.

Ryan Schmitz (@XC_Gang_Schmitz)

Oct 17, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Los Angeles Clippers guard JJ Redick (4) dribbles up the court during the first half against the Utah Jazz at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Jazz won 104-78. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Overrated: Pau Gasol

To the normal NBA fan, Gasol’s numbers might make him seem like one of the better frontcourt players in the league. A closer look and you would realize that those numbers don’t help as much as one would assume. I credit Gasol as to why the Bulls took a tumble in the past year. Now I’ll admit it wasn’t entirely his fault—Derrick Rose hasn’t been the same type of player he once was, Fred Hoiberg needs time to grow as a coach and the team had some off-court issues. I still think Gasol hurt the team way more than he helped. He may look like a solid rim defender, but in reality, it’s all he can defend. He doesn’t move outside of two feet of the rim and thus hurts the team on defense. If an opposing team wanted to stretch the floor with him out there, they could do so with ease. He can’t move laterally to defend any drives and provides poor help defense. On offense, he is a mirror. He slowed down the Bulls’ offense by only playing post up ball and becoming a black hole when he got the ball. He never moved outside the lane. This also hurt Joakim Noah, who then had to float around the perimeter. Gasol puts up good numbers, but he doesn’t help the team. Maybe Popovich can change this and use his talents, which he does have a plethora of, to help the team.

Underrated: J.J. Redick

I had some trouble finding a guy who I felt was really underrated. The reason I decided upon Redick was because I felt he may have been the least known from the players I was choosing from. With that being said, Redick is known pretty solid commodity in the league today. He has come a long way from his Duke days and now is a big part of the Clippers. I doubt most NBA fans would realize that he has averaged over 16 points per game the last few seasons. He plays a major role in the Clippers’ offense as well with the multiple screens he gets on each possession. Redick has perfected his craft and became a very efficient shooter. Last year, he shot 47 percent from 3. Having him on the floor opens up the offense so much for DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin and Chris Paul. One defender has to shadow Redick around the court, which leads to an open lane for Paul drive and lobs. Redick might not be able to carry a team on his own, but he could be one of the most important reasons for the Clippers’ success.

Austin Usery (@AustinUsery)

Oct 21, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) dribbles the ball past Toronto Raptors guard Norman Powell (24) during the second half at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Overrated: Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal, the wonder kid from St. Louis. Yeah, Beal isn’t as good some some people (Wizards fans) make him out to be. While Beal does have a career average of 16 points per game, he doesn’t really do much else. The biggest knock against Beal has always been about whether he can stay on the floor. Over Beal’s four-year career, he has only played more than 65 games once. Another knock against Beal is his defense. When Beal guards a player, they have an 11.9 percent increase in FG% from inside 6 feet. As well as when Beal’s opponent is behind the 3-point arc, they shoot 37.1 percent. I just don’t believe that Beal is deserving of the 5 year, $128 million contract that he was “rewarded” with.

Underrated: Nikola Vucevic

Yes, Vucevic has his struggles on defense, but nobody is even talking about how good he has been on offense. Vucevic last season averaged 18.2 ppg and 8.9 rpg. For a center, these are very solid numbers. The thing that separates Vucevic from most other high-profile centers is his ability to shoot free throws. Over his career, Vucevic has shot 73.1 percent and last season even improved upon that at 75.3 percent. It’s not hard to see why he has found so much success. He has all the post moves you could think of and at 7-foot, 260 pounds, he has the size to go up against anybody. If you think I’m wrong then all you need to do is watch the Magic during the NBA’s opening week. 

Mike Parrott (@MikeParrott_)

Oct 16, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) reacts after a play against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the first quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Overrated: Russell Westbrook

The Oklahoma City Thunder, a team that went from amazing luck (three top-5 NBA Draft picks in a row…) to an unlucky franchise after losing two of the top five players in the current NBA. But hey, Steven Adams, Jeremy Lamb and Kevin Martin are much better than James Harden if you think of quantity over quality. 

Anyway, OKC has had to forfeit the keys to the franchise to Russell Westbrook, the most overrated player in the NBA. Yeah, the guy who just averaged 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 10 assists per game, basically LeBron-esque numbers. So surely he’s not overrated. But let me take you back to the 1960’s when another tall point guard put up absurd stats:

Oscar Robertson.

For the now defunct Cincinnati Royals, Oscar averaged 29.3 PPG, 10.3 APG, and 8.5 RPG. However, the biggest thing about those Royals teams were their lack of success. The best way to put Robertson’s career into words was an excerpt from Bill Simmons’ ‘Book of Basketball’:

If you took out the accolades in that passage you could replace Oscar’s name with Westbrook’s and it would make complete sense.

How does all this translate to Westbrook being the most overrated player? Because way too many people are pegging him as the MVP, even coming second in the latest NBA GM survey. But only one time has a player not been on a top-3 seed and won MVP, and that was Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1976 on a 4-seed Lakers team.

Is Westbrook a good player? Absolutely. Is he an NBA MVP candidate? No way. OKC are on the low-end of the playoffs this year, definitely not a top 3-seed. If Westbrook guides the OKC to a top-3 seed then I’ll take everything I’ve said back. But a player who has put up empty stats for his career and ran one of the best scorers of all-time in Kevin Durant out of town, you’re not an MVP or will reach the second round again for a long time.

Mike Parrott (cont.)

Oct 19, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) dribbles as Dallas Mavericks guard Wesley Matthews (left) defends during the second half at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Underrated: James Harden

Harden is a top-3 player in the NBA.

Why do I think this for a player who doesn’t play defense? Because he’s about to put up a season that will be comparable to Steph Curry’s immaculate 2015-16 season.

How is he underrated? Harden just put up 29 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 7.5 APG and surely he made an All-NBA team, right? Right? Now that’s why he’s underrated.

Harden has just found himself in the perfect position to replicate a Curry season. He’s got the best offensive coach ever in the NBA as his main-man in Mike D’Antoni in which Harden is D’Antoni’s wet dream for his offense. Steve Nash won two MVPs playing the D’Antoni offense, Raymond Felton actually looked valuable under it and Linsanity happened. Now, imagine instead of having a mid-30s man running it, you have an athletic, late 20s player with insane handles, amazing court vision, a great shot and an uncanny ability to draw fouls? Daryl Morey approves of that sentence.

Why does this make him a top-3 player as I boldly said? Because Harden has already put up insane stats for a team with an interim coach and a sulky big man who always moans for post-ups when he was statistically the best roll-man in the NBA. Now imagine when he has complete control of the offense with the perfect players around him to maximize his offense.

This is gonna be the best offense in the NBA this upcoming season and it will solidify Harden as a top-3 player with the Rockets taking the third seed in the West.

Ryan Snellings (@rsnellings25)

Oct 19, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) flexes against the Los Angeles Lakers during the fourth quarter at Valley View Casino Center. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Overrated: Stephen Curry

Yes. The 2 time MVP is overrated. “But Ryan, he holds the top-3 spots in the single season 3- point list and has virtually limitless range! He even can shoot shots from the tunnel!” Bah, humbug, reader. Besides, how many shots from the tunnel has he made in a game? None? I thought so.

Snark aside, Steph is a top- 5 player in the league (Give me LeBron, KD and Russ above him), but during last year’s historic season, there was chatter that he was not only top of the league, but also possibly the best ever.  Now, I’m not here to say that Steph Curry is trash and that everyone should drink the haterade. The dude can virtually shoot anywhere and has amazing handles. On any given night, he has the potential to drop 50 and was the leader of an NBA best record 73-9 team.

His defense is severely overrated. He cannot guard elite point guards and is often masked on the lesser of the opposing guards. His defense is masked though, in part, to having good defenders surrounding him. Expect that continue this year when he shares the court with Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green, all of whom are great defenders. Curry has a career DBPM of -0.5. Last season, he also failed to cement himself in any sort of G.O.A.T talk, much less the best player currently in the league, when he was part of a team that blew a 3-1 lead. Curry did fail to show up in the last tnree games of the season, though, which a 2-time MVP should not do. Among all the talk of the league being “rigged” and LeBron/Kyrie’s dominance, Curry’s lack of performance was lost. Curry’s game score (game score was created by John Hollinger to give a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game. The scale is similar to that of points scored, (40 is an outstanding performance, 10 is an average performance, etc.) for the last three games of the series were: 16.5, 14.7 and 5.1. Two of the three were just barely above average performances, while game seven’s performance was abysmal.

If Westbrook has the season many think he will, he could easily pass Curry for title of best point guard in the league. I’m sure conversation will arise along the lines of “Could Curry carry a team similar to what Westbrook is doing?” It’ll be an interesting topic once the time comes. Curry is still an amazing talent, but let’s pump the brakes on this G.O.A.T talk and even best player in the league talk for now.

Ryan Snellings (cont.)

Oct 17, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Los Angeles Clippers guard Austin Rivers (25) dribbles up the court during the first half against the Utah Jazz at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Jazz won 104-78. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Underrated: Austin Rivers

The Seed. We’ve all seen and mocked “Here comes Austin Rivers” time and time again. We also mock him for getting put on his dad’s team and getting a nice shiny contract. He’s an easy target on a Clippers team that has lacked depth at the backup point guard spot.

The kid can play decently, though. And remember, he’s just that: a kid. Austin just turned 24 in August. He has time to expand his game and really become a premiere bench player. Right now, he’s not a great shooter and I, along with others, don’t think he’s being utilized in the correct way. Rivers is not a point guard. This past season was his best TS%, at .523. There’s still room for improvement. He needs to be featured as an off-ball guard paired with a distributor. Putting him on the floor with Jamal Crawford, as often is the case, doesn’t allow him to use his skillset on offense. Rivers has also increased his driving ability. As referenced on this Hoops Habit article:

Austin also has greatly improved his defense. Per the same article:

Clips Nation also broke down River’s improvement on defense citing:

I’ve already broken down how affecting a shot alone can greatly benefit a team, specifically the Memphis Grizzlies, so this part of Rivers’ game shouldn’t be overlooked. His defense is greatly improving and Doc has even toyed with the idea of playing him at small forward this season for his defensive abilities.

I’m not advocating that Austin be a starter in this league, but he is severely underrated and can be a productive bench player and give some good starting minutes when players go down to injury. Let’s all give Austin Rivers another season to prove that he does belong in the league, whether or not he’s on his dad’s team.

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