Game Day Preview: OKC Thunder take on ice cold Heat

The OKC Thunder tip-off in Miami tonight in what marks the start of 12 road games in their next 15 dates. Game Day Preview breaks down the match versus the Heat.

In their previous meeting this season the OKC Thunder dispatched of the Heat 97-85. Looking back to that November 7th, home date the win came with some notable oddities. Playing in his seventh game as a pro, rookie Domantas Sabonis notched his first career NBA double-double. Joining Sabonis in registering that mark were Russell Westbrook and Enes Kanter. Given how well Kanter played on Christmas Day one might assume he’s looking to continue his good fortune.

Oladipo won’t play, but as Tony Heim poignantly observed the Thunder’s initial concern over his absence has given way to the squad discovering chemistry and offensive production.

Donovan has put more of an emphasis on sets for the offense, but the players are also just playing better in Dipo’s absence. Domantas Sabonis put up a career-high 20 points against the Celtics two nights ago. The game before, Alex Abrines posted his own career-high with 18 points against the Pelicans. And Christmas Day was the Enes Kanter show.

Meanwhile, the month of December has been frosty for the Heat who’ve suffered a 5-game and 3-game losing streak. Furthermore, they’ve lost 9 of 13 games. Of Miami’s four wins only one was against a team above .500 (the Jazz).

Heading into the match the Thunder have seemingly turned a corner offensively with the squad now ranking above the middle mark in both defense (10th) and offense (15).

With that, let’s break down the match:

Rotations:

Oklahoma City Thunder Starters:

Point Guard: Russell Westbrook
Shooting Guard: *Anthony Morrow
Small Forward: Andre Roberson
Power Forward: Domantas Sabonis
Center: Steven Adams

Oklahoma City Thunder Bench:

Point Guard: Semaj Christon
Shooting Guard: Alex Abrines
Small Forward: Jerami Grant, Kyle Singler,
Power Forward: Nick Collis on , * Josh Huestis
Center: Enes Kanter, Joffrey Lauvergne

Notes:

Image reference: NBA.

Full stats available via nba.com/thunder

Miami Heat Starters:

Point Guard: Goran Dragic
Shooting Guard: Josh Richardson
Small Forward: Justise Winslow
Power Forward: Josh McRoberts
Center: Hassan Whiteside

Miami Heat Bench:

Point Guard:Tyler Johnson
Shooting Guard: with McGruder questionable and Waiters out Miami are extremely thin at SG
Small Forward: James Johnson
Power Forward: Luke Babbitt, Derrick Williams
Center: Willie Reed, Udonis Haslem

Image reference: NBA.

Full stats available via nba.com/heat

Key Match-ups:

Andre Roberson versus Justise Winslow: Having lost Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade the Heat find themselves searching to restructure. Most pundits expected Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra would turn to Hassan Whiteside or Goran Dragic. But, the stats point clearly to Winslow as the player Miami are gearing the restructure around.

As per John Schuhmann: “Among 262 players who played at least 500 minutes last season and have played at least 300 minutes this season, only three guys – Harrison Barnes, Russell Westbrook and George Hill – have seen a bigger jump in usage rage. And though he’s missed 16 of the Heat’s 31 games, Winslow has taken just one fewer shot in the clutch this season (20) than he did all of last season.”

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Though Winslow may be the man his scoring will predominantly come in the paint given his struggles shooting from the field.

Steven Adams versus Hassan Whiteside: Adams was huge in the win versus the Wolves, both in scoring and guarding Karl- Anthony Towns. His reward is to face off against Whiteside who is averaging 18 points and a league leading 14.9 rebounds per game.

Keys to Win:

With a 10-21 record the Heat reside with the Nets and Sixers in the Eastern Conference basement. Though there have been injuries to address, clearly the loss of the teams two biggest stars has put Pat Riley into a rebuild mode.

Preseason I opined it would behoove the Heat to tank this season and grab a star in the loaded 2017 draft. Next season the Heat own their pick, but only if they finish in the bottom 7, otherwise their pick will go to the Pelicans. And so, as much as Riley hates to lose, it seems more likely the reason Spoelstra is putting the ball in Winslow’s hands to end games has more to do with getting him experience for the future than to win games. Why else wouldn’t Goran Dragic be taking those shots?

Regardless of the Heat’s regression they still rank 11th defensively, therefore the Thunder can’t afford to take Miami for granted. The Heat haven’t played since Friday, so enter the night on four full days rest.

For the OKC Thunder, expect their game plan to be simple – continue to play precisely the way they have over the past 3 games. Specifically that means focusing on defense first and ball movement. This new found reserve offense works to the Thunder’s advantage since the Heat’s bench is inexperienced and lacks depth. Moreover, Waiters is out and McGruder is questionable which leaves the Heat extremely thin in the backcourt.

From a personnel perspective the Thunder should try to pull Whiteside away from the paint and limit Dragic’s ability to get the ball out in transition (where he is at his best). Conversely, the Thunder should push the pace since the Heat rank 27th in points and will attempt to keep the score low as it offers their best chance at victory.

Cyborg Russ:

Westbrook may well be the key as he enters the contest averaging 41 points in his past 4 games. His 31 points and 15 assists Christmas Day tied a record just Tiny Archibald and Oscar Robertson had achieved on the holiday. Westbrook has just one triple-double in these past 4 games, so might we see another this evening?

Westbrook has a tendency to maintain, or rather get what he needs to keep his triple-double average when it gets precariously close to dipping below in any of the stat categories. I point you to his 17 rebounds versus the Knicks and Pelicans or his 22 assists versus Phoenix. His current averages of 31.7 points, 10.4 rebounds and 10.9 assists has me pondering if tonight might find Cyborg Russ crashing the boards or simply going for the triple sweep.

As mentioned this game marks the first of 12 games out of 15 that will occur on the road. Strangely however, it might serve to bring the recently gelling squad even closer.

Walking Wounded:

OKC Thunder:

Victor Oladipo – wrist, good news, bad news scenario here, Donovan updated Oladipo is finally shooting the basketball, but will not play on Tuesday. Note: CBC Sports notes Dipo is targeting January 1st to return.