Dwight Howard is the Dallas Mavericks' last hope for relevance
The Dallas Mavericks are in a tricky situation. Nearing the end of Dirk Nowitzki's Hall of Fame career, they're currently stuck in the mud as an average team with no tangible trade assets to get better in a hurry. Their 2016 first-round draft pick is owed to the Boston Celtics unless it lands in the top seven and their best players (besides Dirk) are either declining veterans or about to enter free agency.
The Mavs have a ton of cap space this summer, but so does just about everybody else, and unless they willingly choose to put Dirk through a painful Kobe Bryant-esque farewell tour, they'll almost certainly have to overpay in free agency to remain relevant.
Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard is one potential target, but the Mavericks don't have any interest in giving him a four-year maximum contract, which is exactly what Howard will likely seek Here's why they should (via ESPN Now):
Sources says the Mavericks' interest in Dwight Howard as a free agent this summer will be dependent on the price. The Mavs do not intend to be in on the bidding for Howard if it's in the neighborhood of a max contract, which would have a starting salary of more than $30 million. The Mavs made Howard their primary target and offered a max contract in 2013, when the center signed with the Rockets. However, concerns about the 30-year-old Howard's durability and desire have caused the Mavs to decide that he isn't worth a nine-figure investment over four years at this point.
Even as the salary cap rises to approximately $90 million this summer—and $108 million in 2017—Howard is a risk. He's a 30-year-old big man who's been in the NBA since he was 19. There are serious miles on that body, and in recent years we've seen multiple signs that his production value may soon fall off a cliff. Last season, he had knee surgery, and a few years before that he had a back operation. This is bad news for a basketball player, especially one who relies on physical dominance.
But if Dallas wants to make any meaningful short-term strides as Nowitzki's retirement nears, signing Howard isn't the worst idea in the world.
First of all, he's still a very good player. Sure, his scoring is down and there's some concern over his decreasing role in Houston's offense, but Howard's field goal percentage is currently a career high (61.4) and his rebounding and free-throw rates are right around his career average. (Considering he's arguably the best rebounder of his generation, this is a hopeful sign.)
It's also strange to hear that the Mavericks, of all organizations, is worried about a long-term health risk, considering they just gave a 29-year-old Wesley Matthews $70 million only a few months after he tore his Achilles. The comparison isn't entirely fair considering Howard's deal would be worth about $31 million in the first year alone, but on principle it's a legitimate point.
Add Howard, re-sign Chandler Parsons, and all of a sudden the Mavericks have two very good pieces beside Nowitzki to give themselves a shot in the dark at making noise in the playoffs.
Are those three good enough to win a championship? Of course not, but Howard can still be the spinal chord of a good defense. He still lessens pressure on the perimeter and deters shots at the rim.
This year, Houston's opponents are attempting 36.1 percent of their shots in the restricted area when Howard is off the court, and only 31.1 percent when he's on. He's a very real, very large deterrent, and would help out a team like Dallas that's weak on the boards and can stand to improve protecting the basket.
To boot, Howard is an excellent/willing screen-and-roll player who'd fit nicely in their system, the same way a 32-year-old Tyson Chandler did last season.
The back half of any max contract for a player who's 30 is bad news, but in this circumstance it may be better for Dallas to just close its eyes and cross that bridge when they get there. Rick Carlisle and Nowitzki overachieve every season regardless of their supporting cast, so it's only right to wonder what can be accomplished with a powerful force like Howard patrolling the paint.
Why not roll the dice and see what happens?