Do-over: A year later, 2014 NBA Draft doesn't look so great

A year ago, plenty of people spoke about the 2014 NBA Draft as one that could be an all-timer.

Maybe it wouldn’t become the Jordan/Olajuwon/Barkley draft of 1984, and maybe not the Kobe/Ray Allen/Steve Nash draft of 1996, and maybe not the LeBron/D-Wade/Melo draft of 2003 -- but a year ago it was a common thought the 2014 draft had a real shot at landing on a second tier behind those great talent grabs.

One year later, early returns have it as a dud.

Of course, there is a problem with placing a final judgment on an NBA Draft just one year after these young men walked up to the podium and shook commissioner Adam Silver’s hand -- namely, that it’s still way too early to judge.

Some players have already made their splash (see rookie of the year and No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins). Others still need time to develop (looking at you, Dante Exum and Zach LaVine). And some have dealt with injuries: Bucks second overall pick Jabari Parker tore his ACL just 25 games into his NBA career, 76ers third pick Joel Embiid has yet to play a game due to a foot injury, and Lakers seventh pick Julius Randle played exactly one game before he broke his leg. Fellow lottery pick Dario Saric of Sixers is still playing in the Turkish professional league.

So how would things look different if we did the whole thing over again a year later?

Don’t be surprised that this partial redraft . . . looks a whole lot like the original. It’s a simple question of sample size. It’s not big enough yet to make bold statements on players who performed better or worse than expected.

That said, there are some surprises, too, in a new ranking of the top 10 – not based on team fit but rather on projected NBA future.

Andrew Wiggins is one pick who seems to be living up to his predraft billing.

1. Andrew Wiggins, SF, Timberwolves (No. 1 in 2014 draft) -- Even though the Cleveland Cavaliers are playing in the NBA Finals, they can’t be too pleased in retrospect about sending Wiggins to Minnesota, where he was named rookie of the year and led all rookies by a wide margin in scoring and minutes. He played all 82 games and got better as the season went on, averaging 23.3 points per game in April. There was plenty of debate before the draft about whether the No. 1 pick ought to be Wiggins, Parker or Embiid. I thought that debate was silly a year ago; it looks even more silly now.

2. Jabari Parker, SF, Bucks (No. 2 in 2014 draft) -- What did Parker do during his abbreviated rookie year, which ended before Christmas with a torn ACL, to make you think any differently about him? His scoring average (12.3 ppg) would have ranked second among rookies if he had played the entire season. He proved himself capable of scoring at the next level like he did in college. Assuming he returns at 100 percent, the Bucks got exactly what they were hoping for when they took Parker in this spot a year ago.

3. Joel Embiid, C, 76ers (No. 3 in 2014 draft) -- It’s the same argument as with Parker: Why would you feel any differently about Embiid than you did a year ago? The Sixers knew his injury would keep him out of action during his entire first year in the NBA. That strategy worked out well with Nerlens Noel, who made the all-rookie first team after sitting out his first year. Embiid remains the biggest risk/reward player in the 2014 draft. As I said a year ago, he could end up as one of two players from that epic 1984 draft. He still has the potential to become either Hakeem Olajuwon, an all-time great, or Sam Bowie, an all-time injury bust. Embiid falls in with the Sixers’ strategy of taking a lot of home run swings and hoping a couple of them connect.

4. Elfrid Payton, PG, Magic (No. 10 in 2014 draft; Aaron Gordon was actual pick) -- Payton is the first surprise of this redraft, putting the mid-major darling of the 2014 draft in the spot where his Orlando Magic teammate Gordon was drafted. It would have been difficult for Payton to have had a better first year. He led all rookies in assists, averaging 6.5 while playing all 82 games, nearly double what the second-place rookie had. Meanwhile, he limited his turnovers, which was one knock on him coming into the NBA. In fact, Payton’s 2.63 assist-to-turnover ratio ranked first among rookies and put him in the upper third of NBA point guards. He scored (8.9 ppg) and rebounded (4.3 rpg), too, and led all rookies in steals (1.7 spg). The Magic may have hit a home run with Payton, who was a near-unanimous selection for the all-rookie first team.

5. Marcus Smart, PG, Celtics (No. 6 in 2014 draft; Dante Exum was actual pick) -- Nothing we saw from Smart in his rookie season should make us feel any differently about him than we did a year ago. He’s one of the fiercest competitors in all of basketball, and though he still showed temper issues (see: Matt Bonner crotch punch), he again proved himself to be a winner. Smart was the only lottery pick to play in a postseason game this year. And the biggest skill question about Smart heading into the draft -- could he shoot adequately from 3-point range? -- appears to have died down, as Smart hit 33.5 percent in his rookie year. That’s nothing spectacular, but it still was eighth-best among rookies and an improvement over his college numbers. It was also good enough to get Smart elected to the all-rookie second team.

6. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Nuggets (No. 16 in 2014 draft; Marcus Smart was actual pick) -- He’s still only 20 years old, so he has plenty of time to develop his enormous body and killer instinct into a solid NBA center for years to come. Nurkic was first in rebounding (6.2 per game), second in blocked shots (1.1) and third in player efficiency rating among the 2014 draftees. His ability as a post presence and a rim protector ought to provide a foundation for the Denver Nuggets to build around.

7. Nikola Mirotic, PF, Bulls (No. 23 in 2014 draft; Julius Randle was actual pick) -- Question: Which player led all rookies in player efficiency rating? Answer: It was the Mirotic, who was tied for 69th in the league (with the Boston Celtics’ Jared Sullinger) at 17.93. Although his relatively advanced age (24) means his ceiling is lower than that of some of the teenagers in this list, Mirotic proved he ought to be a solid NBA player for years to come.

8. Julius Randle, PF, Lakers (No. 7 in 2014 draft; Nik Stauskas was actual pick) -- Randle played exactly 14 minutes in the NBA before he broke his leg. So just like Parker, why should we change any previous thoughts we had about him? Randle looked quite good in the preseason as a rebounder and a scorer. He’s still a dominating, Zach Randolph-type body who has more ball skills than he was able to show during his one season at Kentucky. With Randle plus whomever the Lakers decide to add with the second overall pick in this year’s draft, LA will have something to build upon.

9. Zach LaVine, G, Timberwolves (No. 13 in 2014 draft; Noah Vonleh was actual pick) -- No, winning the NBA slam dunk contest does not a basketball player make. But it’s fun! And marketable! And maybe -- just maybe -- it portends a nice future for LaVine in Minnesota. The idea of Ricky Rubio throwing alley-oops to LaVine and Wiggins and possibly Karl-Anthony Towns sounds like fun for years to come at Target Center. Plus, even though he struggled to adapt to the finer points of the NBA game, LaVine’s numbers were pretty darn good for a rookie. He was second among rookies in assists (3.6 apg), third in points (10.1 ppg), seventh in 3-point shooting (34.1 percent) and, most impressive of all, first in free-throw shooting. Hitting 84.2 percent from the line could mean LaVine develops into an elite NBA shooter.

10. Jordan Clarkson, PG, Lakers (No. 46 in 2014 NBA draft; Elfrid Payton was actual pick) -- The only second-rounder who became an all-rookie first team selection, Clarkson was one of the biggest surprises of the 2014 draft class. The Missouri product got to play some serious minutes for a rebuilding Lakers team, and he made the most of it, becoming one of only five rookies to average more than 10 points per game. His player efficiency rating was second among rookies, placing him ahead of NBA veterans like Draymond Green and Manu Ginobili. Is he a point guard to build a team around? No. And perhaps the Lakers end up jettisoning Clarkson in favor of possible 2015 No. 2 overall pick D’Angelo Russell, the talented Ohio State point guard who has NBA scouts buzzing. But in his rookie year, Clarkson proved himself more than capable of starting at point guard in the NBA.