Could Timberwolves' Zach LaVine win the Most Improved Player award?

Feb 11, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Harrison Barnes (40) attempts to drive to the basket through Minnesota Timberwolves guard Zach LaVine (8) in the second half at Target Center. The Warriors won 94-91. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Through two years in the league much has been said of Timberwolves’ guard Zach LaVine’s athletic ability. This season is different, however, with LaVine playing the best basketball of his young career and competing for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award.

Fans and writers alike are marveling at the growth of Dallas Mavericks forward Harrison Barnes. One could easily argue that Barnes is the leading candidate for the league’s Most Improved Player award.

But seemingly lost in the shuffle of the NBA season is Timberwolves shooting guard Zach LaVine, who is quietly ballin’. While he may be completely overlooked, at least from a national perspective, I do believe that LaVine should be in the conversation for the NBA’s Most Improved Player.

First, let’s look at each player’s per-game numbers last season with their respective teams.

Dec 13, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Zach LaVine (8) dribbles the ball against Chicago Bulls guard Dwyane Wade (3) during the second half at the United Center. Minnesota defeats Chicago 99-94. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

2015-16 Per-Game Comparison

In 66 outings, including 59 starts last season, Barnes shot 46.6 percent from the field while averaging 11.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 0.9 turnovers per game. Barnes connected on 1.2 of his 3.2 three-point attempts per game while making 1.5 of his two free throw attempts, good for 38.3 percent from three and 76.1 percent from the line.

As part of the 73-win Warriors, Barnes seemed to be largely an afterthought. Much of his role was to hit the occasional three and play solid defense. At best, Barnes was a spot-up shooter on a historic team, which is nothing to scoff at, of course. Every great team needs it’s role players.

LaVine’s on-court role last year fluctuated. Wolves fans saw him suit up as a point guard, shooting guard, and a sixth-man. To say that LaVine was misused for much of the past two seasons would be an understatement. Fortunately for Zach, the former interim head coach had to find a job elsewhere.

In 82 appearances, 33 of which were starts, LaVine averaged 45.2 percent from the field to go with his 14 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.9 turnovers. LaVine attempted 3.9 threes per game, connecting on 1.5 of them as well as making two of his 2.5 free throws per contest.

To sum up the per-game number comparison, take a look at the chart below.

Next up, we’ll take a look at the advanced stats for these two players from last season.

Dec 10, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Harrison Barnes (40) handles the ball while Houston Rockets forward Ryan Anderson (3) defends during the third quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

2015-16 Advanced Statistic Comparison

Last year, while on the floor, Barnes used 15.9 percent of the Warriors plays and had an effective field goal percentage of 53.1. Barnes also had a player efficiency rating of 12.3 — below the league average of 15. Though Barnes had 4.9 win shares according to Basketball-Reference.com, he also managed to log a Box Plus/Minus of -0.2.

LaVine, on the other hand, used 23.5 percent of the Wolves plays with an effective field goal percentage of 55. LaVine finished the year with a player efficiency rating of 14.3, 2.6 win shares and a Box Plus/Minus of -1.4 on a team that won 44 fewer games than Barnes’ Warriors.

Side-by-side, there seems to be another mixed bag. Though LaVine posted a higher usage rate, effective field goal percentage and PER, Barnes deserves the edge. This is due to more win shares, a better Box Plus/Minus, and the fact that Barnes’ per-game averages were similar to LaVine’s with a dramatically lower usage percentage.

Now, what have these two players been up to this year?

Nov 30, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Zach LaVine (8) shoots over New York Knicks center Marshall Plumlee (40) during the fourth quarter at Target Center. The Knicks defeated the Timberwolves 106-104. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Per-Game Comparison

Harrison Barnes, now a member of the Dallas Mavericks, is currently averaging 20.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.5 turnovers per game on 46.3 percent shooting from the field. He’s also converting one of his 2.9 three pointers and 3.2 of his 3.7 free throws, which is good for 86.5 percent and 34.3 percent, respectively.

This past off-season Barnes signed a four-year, $94 million deal with the Dallas Mavericks, effectively making him the Mavs’ franchise centerpiece for the near future.

As shown by the stats above, Barnes has assumed this role nicely. However, Barnes is a much different player from a year ago. This is demonstrated by the fact that this year 56.4 percent of Barnes made field goals are unassisted, compared to just 26.8 percent last year. That’s a lot of iso-ball.

LaVine, now in his third year with the Timberwolves, has continued his role from the end of last year as the team’s starting shooting guard. Through 24 games, Zach has taken off, averaging 20.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.8 turnovers on 47.3 percent shooting. He’s converting 2.5 of his 6.7 three-point attempts, good for 37.5 percent, and 2.8 of his 3.2 free throws.

The former UCLA Bruin has quickly become the Wolves’ gunner. At times, it seems that Zach sees the rim and nothing else, as evidenced by taking off-balance, contested shots. This may seem like a bad thing, until you realize Zach is connecting on 48.7 percent of his shots with a defender within four feet of him. Shockingly, this category of shots make up 50.8 percent of Zach’s shot attempts.

As evidenced above, these two players are putting forth very similar results this season, though their respective teams’ win totals have not yet benefited from this. There isn’t a clearly better player simply by going off of the per game numbers, and both Barnes and LaVine are playing the best basketball of their careers.

Let’s move on to advanced statistics.

Dec 9, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Harrison Barnes (40) shoots against the Indiana Pacers at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Advanced Statistic Comparison

Through 24 games, Harrison Barnes has used 26.4 percent of the Mavericks’ possessions, which is way up from last year’s 15.9 percent. He also has an effective field goal percentage of 49.2. With a player efficiency rating of 16.9, a Box Plus/Minus of -2.5, and 1.3 win shares, the advanced statistics aren’t as kind to Harrison Barnes as they were last season.

Zach LaVine, on the other hand, is a different story.

Zach currently has a usage percentage of 22.5, down only slightly from 23.5 percent in 2015-16. With an effective field goal percentage of 55, a player efficiency of 16.7, two win shares to this point and a Box Plus/Minus of 0.4, Zach has improved in every area.

Side-by-side the numbers look like this.

Once again, the advanced stats help us determine the more productive player.

Though Barnes has a higher usage percentage by nearly four percent, LaVine comes out on top. The reason for this is simple: LaVine has put forth similar per-game numbers with a lower usage rate and a much higher effective field goal percentage.

That being said, our original question was not who is the more productive player. The question was, who should win the NBA’s Most Improved Player award? The case can be made for both.

Whom Should Win The Award?

Harrison Barnes moved from the 73-win Golden State Warriors to the now cellar-dweller Dallas Mavericks. While his usage percentage has gone up by nearly 10 percent, this has simply translated to an increased point-per-game average. The rebounding averages are slightly increased, but everything else has remained the same or taken a bit of a dip, including his effective field goal percentage.

It should be noted that this is Barnes first time being a leader in the NBA. As a four-year role player, Barnes has immediately assumed the role of go-to-scorer and has been far more successful than most. This is a factor that should not be overlooked in this discussion due to the weight that currently rests on the former Tar Heel’s shoulders.

LaVine, like Barnes, is also on a cellar-dweller team. However, the statistics and on-court production show just how much the young guard has grown.

LaVine’s usage percentage is down by one percent, but he’s made more of his opportunities than he did a year ago. His effective field goal percentage has increased significantly, all while taking nearly three more three-pointers per game. His points per game is up by 6.5 points, and for the first time in his career, he has a positive Box Plus/Minus.

At the end of the day, it comes down to what you value more in a Most Improved Player. Do you value the player who has assumed a leadership role but from an advanced stats perspective has only increased his touches? Or do you value the player who continues to have the same role but has shown great improvement in that area?