Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers: Advanced Stats Game Outlook

Oct 6, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) defends Chicago Bulls guard Dwayne Wade (3) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Pacers won 115-108. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Bulls look to bounce back tonight on the road against the Indiana Pacers. Let’s take a look what to watch for in Indianapolis.

Counting tonight and the preseason, the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers will play their fourth matchup together in less than 30 days. To say each team “knows what’s coming” would be an understatement.

So far against the Pacers, the Bulls split their preseason matchups. One week ago today, the Bulls beat the Pacers in a statement game with a 118-101 blowout victory. In that game Doug McDermott had 23 points, Jimmy Butler added 16 and Rajon Rondo had 13 assists (and likely could of had a lot more if he wasn’t limited to 25 minutes that night).

The Bulls played real well against the Pacers defense, which according to NBA.com/Stats, is ranked one of the worst defensive teams in the league right now. (More on that to come.)

But, the true highlight of these Bulls-Pacers matchups is the epic battles between the two elite small forwards: Jimmy Butler and Paul George. Both were Olympic gold medalists this past summer, and both are the faces of their respected franchises.

In their matchup last weekend, George had 20 points on 8-for-12 shooting, including 4-of-5 from deep. Butler only had 16 points on 6-for-9 shooting, but played a great game overall grabbing five rebounds, three assists and finishing with a plus-minus of +11 (George -6).

Oct 29, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Taj Gibson (22) shoots the ball as Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (33) defends during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Thumbing through some advanced stats of both teams, there was a few that jumped out

For the Pacers, the stats weren’t so kind. Indiana has the worst Diff% (Percentage Points Different) in the NBA at (3.6). To put that in perspective, the Bulls are ranked in the top 10 at (-1.2) and the league leader is the Miami Heat at (-4.2)

Opponents are shooting really well against the Pacers, too. The DFGM% (Defended Field Goals Made) against the Pacers is at 44 percent, ranked last in the NBA. In terms of efficiency overall as a team (+/-), the Pacers rank in the bottom half in the league at -5.6 percent.

For the Bulls, the stats look pretty good. It’s been well-documented that Chicago has a rather favorable schedule to start the year, so it’ll be interesting to see when they come back to earth a little bit. Chicago’s offense ranks third in the league in OffRtg (Offensive Rating- the number of points scored per 100 possessions) at 111.3. That ranks only behind the league leader Cleveland Cavaliers (114.8) and the Boston Celtics (111.4).

More impressively, this Bulls team has been able to efficiently shoot the 3 and rebound the basketball. The Bulls rank in the top three in 3-point percentage at 39.7 percent, along with being a threat on the boards at 50.2 a game (second in the league).

Oct 6, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; The Chicago Bulls players look on during the national anthem prior to their game against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

Right now, ESPN Pick Center has the Pacers as a -3 point favorites to win at home tonight. Honestly, I am indifferent on the prediction, with the lack of defense for the Pacers but also being at home after the Bulls come off a back-to-back night, anything is possible.

It’ll be interesting to see what direction head coach Fred Hoiberg goes with Dwyane Wade’s minutes. After logging 33 minutes last night against the New York Knicks, the Bulls could look to scale Wade’s minutes to ensure his longevity this season. Wade has looked sharp to start the year, averaging 19.6 PPG in 29.5 minutes a game.

Knowing the Pacers poor defensive numbers, I believe the Bulls will come out of the gates running and looking to steal one on the road. The Bulls are the better team right now, while the Pacers are still trying to put it all together.

A clash of one of the league’s worst defensive teams and statistically one of the best offensive teams should be a fun one.

My prediction: Chicago wins on a big game from Jimmy Butler.

Let’s #FlyTheW in Indy, Bulls fans.