Chicago Bulls: Jimmy Butler An MVP Contender
Chicago Bulls small forward Jimmy Butler is off to a hot start and should be considered a legitimate MVP candidate this season.
Playing for Team USA in the Olympics last summer is already proving to be beneficial for Chicago Bulls small forward Jimmy Butler.
After a breakout season in 2014-15, Butler made his second straight All-Star team last season and is looking like an MVP candidate early in the 2016-17 season.
Despite adding veterans like Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade, Butler is still the leader of the Bulls and has led them to a 10-6 record. The Bulls have been one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference to start the season, and Butler is a big reason for their early season success.
Through 16 games, Butler is only playing 35.2 minutes per game, which is his lowest mark since becoming a starter in 2013-14. Still, Butler is averaging career highs in scoring and rebounding at 25.8 and 6.6 per game, respectively, to go with averages of 4.1 assists and 1.6 steals per game.
Plus, he’s shooting a career-high 49 percent from the field and 42.6 percent from three.
There are still 66 games left in the regular season, but ranking 10th in scoring is still telling of how good Butler has been for the Bulls this season.
In fact, according to Basketball Reference, Butler and Kevin Durant are tied for second in the NBA with 3.0 offensive win shares, only trailing James Harden who has 3.3 offensive win shares in 17 games.
Butler has come a long ways from being an incompetent scorer early in his career, although before this season, he still struggled with being a consistent scorer.
Even though he averaged more than 20 points per game in each of the past two seasons, Butler hung around 46 percent shooting from the field and never topped 38 percent shooting from three in the past two seasons.
The script has flipped this season, though. Out of wing players who have played in at least 10 games this season, Butler is 10th in true shooting percentage with a ridiculous 63.1 percentage.
Since becoming a rotation player for the Bulls in 2012-13, Butler’s best true shooting percentage mark was a mere 58.3 percent.
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This season, Butler is a more efficient scorer and is effectively shooting from behind the arc. Along with a career-high three-point percentage, Butler has six games with multiple three-point makes, compared to just three games with no threes.
Through his first 16 games last season, Butler already had six games without a three-point make.
He’s become a reliable top option on offense for the Bulls while maintaining his status as one of the best defensive players in the league.
Leading the Bulls with 0.7 defensive win shares and 1.6 steals per game is impressive, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.
Butler is always guarding the opposing team’s best offensive player, while leading the team in minutes per game.
It’s rare to have a player be a team’s best player on both sides of the floor because usually a team wants to preserve the legs of their top scorer. His role on the Bulls rivals what Kawhi Leonard does with the San Antonio Spurs.
The Bulls simply need Butler on the floor to be effective. His plus-10.7 plus/minus per 100 possessions while on the court is easily the highest on the Bulls this season.
In fact, Dwyane Wade, who ranks second in win shares for Chicago, only has about half the plus/minus Butler does — Wade comes in at plus-5.4.
To put in perspective how much better the Bulls are with Butler on the floor, MVP front-runners James Harden and Russell Westbrook are at plus-9.2 and plus-6.7, respectively. When on the floor, Butler makes the Bulls a completely different team.
Butler has the numbers and he makes a big enough impact on the Bulls to be considered an MVP candidate, but it will come down to how the Bulls finish the season.
Since the 2006-07 season, not counting the lockout shortened season in 2011-12, only two players have won the league MVP on a team with fewer than 60 wins.
Durant won it with the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2013-14 when the Thunder won 59 games and Kobe Bryant won it in 2007-08 when the Los Angeles Lakers had 57 wins.
The Bulls would have to kick it into another gear to hit those marks, as they’re on pace to win 51.3 games this season. That being said, if Butler continues this level of play, and the Bulls finish near the top of the Eastern Conference, he will end the season as a legitimate MVP candidate.
Besides, the MVP doesn’t always go to the best player. Therefore, even if James Harden and Russell Westbrook continue their ridiculous production, it would be hard to say they’re MVP-worthy if their team misses the playoffs or barely squeaks in.
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Along with an amazing amount of wins, the league MVP hasn’t been on a non-division winning team since 1998-99 when Karl Malone and the Utah Jazz finished second with a 37-13 record.
While the Bulls will almost certainly finish behind the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Central Division, it’s a lot easier to make the case for a player from a second or third seed than a player who led his team to a seventh or eighth seed.
It shows that personal statistics aren’t everything. It also depends on how their team does.
The Bulls’ last MVP winner, Derrick Rose in 2010-11, is an example of the importance of team performance. Rose didn’t have the best statistical season, but he led a young Bulls team to a 62-20 record and the top seed in the conference.
Butler won’t lead the 2016-17 Bulls to the same heights, however he and Rose have eerily similar stat lines and this year’s team has a chance to shock the NBA world as much as that year’s team did.
Here’s a look at Rose’s MVP season and Butler’s 2016-17 season:
Rose is a point guard and Butler is a wing player, therefore it’s expected that their assist and rebound numbers are swapped. Although, Butler has Rose beat in every other category, and arguably has a bigger role when taking into consideration his impact on both ends of the floor.
Butler can’t drop off in the second half of the season as he has in years past, but right now he’s in prime position to be a dark horse in the MVP race.
If the Bulls keep winning, it will be because Butler maintains this production. If that happens, it would be hard not to give him a serious look at the end of the season.