Can slumping Warriors recover to be NBA title threat?

By Ric Bucher
FOX Sports NBA Writer

Ah, Christmas 2021. How sweet it was for Golden State fans.

The Warriors vanquished the red-hot Suns in Phoenix that day to cement their status as the best team in the NBA, pushing their record to 27-6. The anticipated return of All-Star shooting guard Klay Thompson and promising second-year center James Wiseman was expected to elevate the Warriors even further and had the Bay Area envisioning an assured return to the franchise’s championship-winning ways after a two-year absence.

So what the hell happened? How is it that since that day, the Warriors’ record is a very pedestrian 18-15, dropping them to third in the Western Conference?

How is it that despite Thompson’s return, the Warriors’ offense has slid from fourth in offensive efficiency to 11th? How have they dropped that many games and remained No. 1 in defensive rating, despite the prolonged absence of their defensive quarterback, Draymond Green?

"There are so many variables," said the advance scout of a recent Warriors opponent. "Let me make a car analogy. Some cars you buy with a big V-8. Even if it’s not finely tuned, it’s going to run because it’s huge. That’s not the Golden State Warriors. They’re more like a turbocharged 4 or finely tuned six-cylinder. Because they’re not a big team. Their game relies upon movement, adjustments and timing.

"When they start to lose bodies, it’s not just the talent that they lose. It’s the timing, the cohesion, the subtle chemistry that makes them somehow greater than the sum of their parts."

The blazing start, which conjured memories of the Warriors’ all-time 73-9 season, might have been slightly misleading.

Golden State had the good fortune of playing 16 of its first 25 games at home and 18 of its first 31 games against teams currently headed for the lottery. They also remained relatively free of players being placed in healthy and safety protocol because of COVID, while a number of their opponents scrambled to find enough healthy replacements to field a team.

"There were games where teams were really suffering from COVID and injury, and it seems like lately the tables have turned," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "It seems like it’s our turn to go through some stuff."

The return of Thompson from two major injuries (a torn Achilles tendon and a torn ACL) proved to hurt the timing, cohesion and subtle chemistry mentioned by the scout more than helping. No athlete has ever returned from such severe back-to-back injuries, but Thompson, 32, was eager to not only play but also prove that he could recapture his five-time All-Star form.

What made Thompson so valuable pre-injuries was the ability and confidence to score 30-plus points if needed, but he was equally content to take on the toughest defensive assignments and serve as a decoy for his more heralded backcourt mate, Steph Curry. As a big guard (6-foot-6), Thompson also had a strong post-up game. 

The injuries have clearly taken away some of his speed, lift and agility, leaving him to shoot his way back to prominence. It has been tough to watch at times. He is currently attempting a career high in shots per minutes played and shooting career-low percentages, including below 40% from the 3-point line for the first time in nine seasons.

"There’s no way that’s not playing on him psychologically," the advance scout said. "These guys know their numbers. It doesn’t take much for the diminution of your physicality to have an impact on your game. He’ll go down as one of the greatest shooters of all time. But maybe he’s not that anymore."

Kerr agreed that Thompson’s return remains a work in progress.

"He’s so anxious to be what he was, and he’s trying to get it back all at once," Kerr said. "And I’ve talked to him about it. I think he’s forcing the issue a little bit. He’s taking some tough shots. But at the same time, we’ve got to give him some leeway. He has been through hell."

Curry, after observing firsthand the anguish Thompson went through the past two seasons, isn’t about to tell his fellow Splash Brother to temper his approach. "I’m like, yo, just keep being aggressive," Curry said. "You’re Klay Thompson. Don’t ever forget that."

Just as Thompson returned, the Warriors lost a few equally important bodies, most notably their veteran pair of 6-foot-6 forwards, Green and Andre Iguodala. If there was a secret sauce to the Warriors’ first championship team, it was the unique roles Green and Iguodala filled as undersized center and power forward in the vaunted unit known as the "Death Lineup" for its suffocating defense. 

Both Green and Iguodala could defend more traditional-sized big men and then pull them away from the basket on offense by operating on the perimeter as playmakers or point forwards. 

Iguodala is back after spending the previous two seasons with the Miami Heat, but Green has been a defensive linchpin since he broke into the starting lineup in 2014, making six All-Defensive teams since then and being named the Defensive Player of the Year in 2017.

That the Warriors still have their No. 1 defensive ranking is actually a reflection of how good they were at the start of the season, holding opponents to an average of 99 points per game in November. That ballooned to an average of 111 points allowed per game in February and 120 points through the first five games in March.

"It’s Draymond-related," Kerr said. "The defense really started to suffer over time. When he went out, we won for a while, but that was partly schedule-related. I remember texting Draymond, ‘I know we’ve won nine in a row, but we’re not the same. I can feel it.’ We weren’t locking people down. There were holes all over the place."

Green isn’t always recognized for how vital he is to the Warriors’ offense as well, even though this is the seventh year in a row that he has been their assist leader. His absence has forced Curry to be the primary playmaker, which has prompted Kerr to utilize the offensive staple of most NBA teams, pick-and-roll, rather than their unique split-screen, off-the-ball movement that creates catch-and-shoot 3s or back-door cuts for layups. 

It’s an offense that requires every player involved to read and react, which has made it a tricky proposition to utilize when the Warriors play rookies Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody extended minutes. The pick-and-roll formula has resulted in Curry expending more energy creating shots for teammates as well as creating his own, rather than moving without the ball and relying on Green to find him.

The challenge of incorporating Thompson and handling the absence of Green resulted in some of the worst shooting of Curry’s career in January.

"Steph is handling the ball and playing more pick-and-roll than ever, at least since I’ve been here, because we don’t have Draymond and Andre to get him off the ball," Kerr said. "And then the young guys are still figuring out the slips and the things that are available. But we also don’t have Draymond and Andre to deliver those passes on the slips."

Green has been out with a back issue since Jan. 11, though he announced on his podcast that he intends to return next week. Iguodala has missed 19 of the Warriors’ past 20 games, and his return timeline remains up in the air. Wiseman has yet to return from offseason knee surgery, but he is currently ramping up his activity with the Warriors’ G League team.

One Eastern Conference scout downplayed concerns about the current state of the Warriors. "This is that time of year when teams like them are just getting ready for the playoffs, trying to keep their home-court seed and not get hurt," he said. "Obviously, they’d like to be playing better. But a healthy Golden State that has played five or six games together before the playoffs start beats everyone."

An added advantage is that the Warriors have weathered setbacks and injuries on their way to a title before, so they’re not about to lose faith that the ultimate goal can be achieved, no matter how fragile they might currently appear.

"They understand there’s no linear path to a championship," the advance scout said. "Sometimes, you go three steps forward and no steps back. And then there are times you go two steps forward and three steps back in a week. They’ll weather that emotionally. But they need their parts."

That is what Kerr is counting on as well. 

"I do like our chances if we’re healthy because the continuity is real," he said. "When we’re really clicking, it is hard to guard us because what we do is unique and different."

But he also cautioned anyone who believes that simply having the same core — Curry, Green, Thompson, Iguodala — that won the first of their three recent titles is a guarantee they will land a fourth.

"We’re vulnerable," he said. "This isn’t 2015, that’s for sure."

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," the story of NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds," the story of NBA center Yao Ming. He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.