Can Ja, LaMelo, Luka fill NBA star void for LeBron, Steph, KD?

By Ric Bucher
FOX Sports NBA Writer

If fan voting is any indication, there has been an air lock around the NBA’s most popular players for the past five years. 

In 2018, the top four All-Star vote-getters were LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant, in that order. 

This year? LeBron, Steph, KD and Giannis. In that order.

Which poses a potential problem.

While at least three of the four aren’t going anywhere anytime soon — and even LeBron, the eldest statesman at 37, has designs to play until he’s 40 — it begs the question: Who replaces them? Who are the next set of titans the entire world waits to see fight for supremacy? Whose marketability has both national and global appeal? Who provides the star power that has been a vital component of the league’s popularity?

"It’s a fair question," one Eastern Conference GM said. 

"I don’t see an issue because the world in general, and the NBA in particular, is great at manufacturing stars," another Eastern Conference GM said. "But we are talking about the greatest shooter to ever live in Steph, maybe the greatest scorer to ever live in KD and one of the greatest players ever in LeBron. Those are some big All-Star shoes to fill."

The GM left out Antetokounmpo because, at 27, he is one of the candidates to succeed the other three as the brightest star in the league’s constellation. But what’s troubling is that despite his achieving as much success as a player could hope to have over the past five years — two league MVP awards, a championship and Finals MVP honors — Antetokounmpo appears to be moving in the wrong direction, slipping in All-Star popularity from second to fourth.

That might be troubling, but it’s not entirely surprising. As global as the league has become and as great as several recent foreign-born players have proven themselves to be, when it comes to popularity, there still appears to be a healthy amount of ethnocentrism among NBA fans. 

Antetokounmpo is not alone among international stars who have surpassed their American counterparts on the floor but not in the imagination of NBA fans. Nikola Jokic is the reigning MVP of the league and arguably playing even better this season, yet he earned barely more All-Star votes than the Chicago Bulls’ DeMar DeRozan.

"Jokic, Giannis, Rudy Gobert, [Joel] Embiid, Luka [Doncic] and [Domantas] Sabonis are not selling shoes; kids are not running out to go buy whatever they’re wearing," another Eastern Conference GM said. "Even if it’s a fashion brand or non-sports performance piece, they’re not running out to buy it because those guys are wearing it. 

"They’re still following LeBron and Curry. They’re not following all those international guys to the level you’d think based on their performance on the court."

There’s also the matter of position, or style of play. Big men, no matter how charismatic, just aren’t as marketable. It could be argued that Shaquille O’Neal’s appeal is greater now as a retired gentle giant than when he was tearing down rims with his 7-foot-1, 325-pound body. Blame it on the innate affection for Davids over Goliaths or the greater relatability of someone closer to the average fan’s size. 

How a player plays matters as well. Even those closer to 7 feet than 6 (such as LeBron and KD) are viewed as smaller because they play primarily on the perimeter, facing the basket, a more relatable style to playground warriors.

So if the current crop of big men and international players — no matter how great or personable — can't be the man, who can? 

New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson, with his YouTube popularity, Duke pedigree, easy-going demeanor and acrobatic game, appeared primed to be the NBA’s Neo, but weight and injury issues have made him a forgotten man. That leaves the path clear for dynamic young players such as Ja Morant, taken No. 2 behind Zion in 2019, and Charlotte Hornets point guard LaMelo Ball. 

But having a game and personality with box-office appeal isn’t enough. LeBron had a made-for-Hollywood setup his first seven seasons as a Cleveland Cavalier: hometown kid, high school fame, hard-luck childhood, once-in-a-generation talent — and even that wasn’t enough to earn him anything more than a place at the table alongside Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade. 

Sitting at the head of that table requires being part of a championship-contending team, preferably one in a major market. LeBron, KD, Howard, Duncan and Russell Westbrook are all proof that a player can become a big-time star on a small-town team, but becoming the star is dependent on factors beyond individual excellence.

The challenge faced by Morant in Memphis and Ball in Charlotte is as much about sustained franchise success as it is establishing themselves as perennial All-Stars.

"There’s a lot to it," a third Eastern Conference GM said. "Ja is relatable because he’s a small-town kid, super athletic, and he’s normal size. Kind of like the Steph Curry phenomenon but for different reasons. LaMelo Ball is still a little more entertainment than great player to me. The way he plays the game doesn’t give me confidence he’s going to win big. That’s part of it, too. 

"If you’re talking about becoming the face of the league, you have to get to the conference finals and [NBA] Finals enough to where the casual fan, who doesn’t start watching NBA basketball until then, knows who you are. Not first-round knockouts and all that. You have to go deep into the playoffs, and it can’t be a one-time deal."

Unlike in the NFL, parity has never served the NBA well. Star players leading title-contending teams in big markets — Michael Jordan in Chicago, Kobe in Los Angeles, LeBron in Miami — is the formula that has drawn the biggest ratings and the most media attention. 

As a basketball fan, I enjoyed the NBA Finals that went seven games between the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons in 2005, but most of America did not. The ratings and market share for the seventh game of that series are the lowest in Finals history since the league started keeping track. The 1998 NBA Finals, conversely, remains the gold standard: the Bulls’ Hall of Fame duo of Jordan and Scottie Pippen vs. Utah Jazz HOFers John Stockton and Karl Malone — meeting to decide the championship for the second year in a row, no less.  

That series also marked the start of a fallow period for the league as far as star marketing. Vince Carter, based on All-Star votes, was the league’s most popular player, but his limited postseason success prevented him from capitalizing on it. Grant Hill and Allen Iverson faced the same issue. It wasn’t until three years later, when the superstar combination of Shaq and Kobe emerged, that the void left by Jordan began to shrink.

As historically great as KD, Steph and LeBron have been, ratings and viewership indicate that they have not returned the league’s popularity to where Jordan had it. If Morant or any of the other home-grown, up-and-coming stars can’t replicate the record-setting greatness of that threesome, what happens?

"I think naturally, potentially, it could decline," the second GM said of the NBA's popularity. "There is other [stuff] for people to do, other forms of entertainment. The game is still strong and in a healthy spot.

"But it is a star-driven league. And our stars are old."

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," the story of NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds," the story of NBA center Yao Ming. He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.