Bench Booker? And Other Off-Day Thoughts

I had been looking into some information trying to come together with some sort of piece today, and I ended up touching on a bunch of topics with some of the other Valley of the Suns writers.

Here is a summary of the top-5 topics about the Suns that we discussed.

Nov 21, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Phoenix Suns head coach Earl Watson talks to his team from the sidelines during the fourth quarter against the Washington Wizards at Verizon Center. Washington Wizards defeated Phoenix Suns 106-101. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

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Mar 10, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Phoenix Suns head coach Earl Watson looks on in the second quarter against the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets defeated the Suns 116-98. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

3. Is it the Coaching?

This morning Gerald Bouygues of Hoops Habit wrote “5 Areas for Improvement” for the Phoenix Suns. A very interesting read (after you have finished this article), but one thing popped out to me that Gerald kept referencing: the Suns’ coaching.

He references the Suns’ league lead in pace yet the fact that they are not running-and-gunning. This is a topic that I touched on recently myself, as the Suns do not appear to have an identity, of which could easily manifest into wins if they played an actual up tempo game.

Not only that, but it is very strange to see a team in the modern NBA who shoots as much as the Suns, but not shoot many three’s – They are 21st in the league in three-point shots attempted. And 3rd overall in two-point field goals attempted.

Gerald also mentions that Watson “refuses to actually install an offense,” something that again, with their lack of identity, is apparent.

This is where he really breaks down the team’s lack of production, for a supposed “motion offense”.

“But the problem with the Suns’ 23rd-ranked offense (100.7 points per 100 possessions) is not a lack of talent; it’s a lack of purpose, execution and distribution. With Watson leaving his players to figure things independent of an actual set offense, it’s not surprising a Suns offense the relies so heavily on four score-first players suffers from very little playmaking.”

Ugh. He’s right..

Without giving away too much because the article is absolutely worth reading, Gerald further touches on the lack of rookie play for the players who ARE actually the future of the franchise, something most Suns fans have been questioning all season. Personally, I understand why Chriss is in the starting lineup because it puts Dudley on the bench allowing for his veteran presence to play with the younger unit.

However, Chriss didn’t play himself into the starting spot, it came out of necessity. And to be honest, he hasn’t played himself into keeping that positing in perpetuity. Dragan Bender and Tyler Ulis, however, have seemingly played themselves into more minutes (the energy the provide every time they are on the court is palpable), and yet they scrape for their flashes of court time, which is both few, and far between – especially for Ulis who is already an 8x DNP-CD, and played in three games for less than five minutes.

In regards to Bender, he is active on defense, but on offense still looks like the same, run to a spot on the court and stand there player he was in the preseason. Does he even know what his role is? What his identity is on the court? For a motion offense, why does he not appear to move very much?

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2. Does Tyson Chandler Positively Effecting the Suns’ Pace?

The statistic “pace” has become a positive buzzword surrounding the Suns this season as it is the one statistic where they have consistently ranked number one in the NBA. In fact the Suns are currently sitting atop the league at 101.8.

Pace is the estimate of the number of possessions for a team in 48 minutes, so it is at least partial evidence that the Suns are continuing their quick, run-and-gun style that the franchise has been known for for many decades.
This topic came about as I had a hunch that the Suns’ VAUNTED pace had been positively and significantly effected by Tyson Chandler on the court (and his above-average rebounding), over the games when he was out.

Unfortunately we have a nearly 50/50 look at Tyson in the starting lineup vs out due to the passing of his Mother and his extended absence.

*All statistics were averaged without the 11/25 Minnesota game. Since he came off the bench, something that will not happen regularly, I took all stats from that game out of the equation.

I first checked on a couple other peripheral statistics including record where I found that with Tyson Chandler in the starting lineup the Suns are 3-7 and 2-5 when he is away.

Team rebounding is barely changed between his presence or his absence as the Suns grab 45.9 with him in the starting lineup, and .2 more at 46.1 with him not in the lineup.

As surprising as that was to me, this shocked me even more: Phoenix’s offense AND defense improves with him not active. The Suns’ average final score with Tyson starting is 107.7 – 114. Their average score without him? 108.25 – 111, a net gain of .55 and 3.0 points.

I was also curious about the team’s field goal percentage since Chandler is shooting 72.3% from the field and again, there was a very slight positive uptick without him on the court. The Suns, with Chandler starting, shoot 44.3% from the field, and 44.9% without him

With so much statistical parody without Tyson Chandler vs his starting, I began to figure that the team’s pace would also be fairly identical, and that my initial prediction that Chandler’s presence positively effected the stat would be wrong.

And wouldn’t you believe it:

Pace With Chandler: 101.5
Pace Without Chandler: 101.4
Pace High With Chandler: 106.0
Pace Low With Chandler: 96.2
Pace High Without Chandler: 107.8
Pace Low Without Chandler: 93.3
Times Pace Below 100 With Chandler: 3
Times Pace Below 100 Without Chandler: 2

All of these stats fall in the exact opposite impression that I had had prior to doing the research, and to be honest, I do not know what that really means.

One would assume, as I had, that the Suns are better with him. He rebounds like no player the Suns have ever had before, and with him in the starting lineup, Len is allowed to come off the bench providing Phoenix with a center who on most teams would be starting.

Maybe with the knowledge of this information General Manager Ryan McDonough will more willingly trade Chandler as his statistical absence is not a detriment to the team – in other words, trading Chandler isn’t exactly tanking

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Nov 27, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker reacts in the second half against the Denver Nuggets at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Nuggets defeated the Suns 118-114. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

1. Bench Book?

I don’t know if I am entirely serious about this, but hear me out:

As a starter this season, Devin Booker has scored over 20 points seven times, including 30+ four times. However, while he has his higher scoring breakout games, they are not consistent and he scores 0-15 more often (9 times) and has scored less than 20 points 11 times total.

Let’s also look at it this way: when Devin Booker scores 20 points or more, he averages 29.2 points. When he scores less than 20 points, he averages 12.6. So thus far on the season, he is either feast or famine. He’s either going to score a lot, or hardly at all.

Overall, while his three-point shooting percentage has been almost identical as his rookie season (34.1% now compared to 34.3% last season), his field goal percentage (-1.2%), free throw percentage (-4.0), and eFG% (-1.6) are all down significantly over last season.