2024 NBA Finals predictions: Experts' picks for Celtics vs Mavericks

The NBA Finals are finally here, and bettors are enthusiastic about diving into wagers for the huge matchup between the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks.

The Celtics — led by Eastern Conference MVP Jaylen Brown and All-Star Jayson Tatum — are currently -220 favorites to win the championship. 

After notching the best regular-season record, Boston defeated the Heat, Cavaliers and Pacers in the Eastern Conference playoffs en route to its second Finals appearance since 2022. 

Dallas, on the other hand, hasn't had a trip to the last dance since it won it all at the conclusion of the 2010-2011 season. Ironically, now-head coach Jason Kidd was the point guard for those championship Mavs. 

Currently led by Western Conference Finals MVP Luka Doncic, Dallas's odds to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy are currently +184. The Mavericks defeated the Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves to punch their ticket to the Finals.

Now that the championship series is upon us, bettors are focused on the best ways to wager on the matchup.

Our experts — Sam "Sammy P" Panayotovich, Geoff Schwartz, Jason McIntyre and Will Hill — are here to help.

Let's dive into their picks.

SAMMY P

Celtics to win NBA Finals

This price is as high as -230 in Las Vegas and DraftKings is currently dealing the floor at -210. Please get the best number. I'm far from the biggest C's fan, but the Green Teamers would've been -400 or higher against Dallas before the postseason started. This is just too cheap, and you get the deeper and more complete team. I even thought about firing Jayson Tatum to win Finals MVP at -110 but decided not to overthink it. 

PICK: Celtics (-210) to win NBA Finals

JASON MCINTYRE

Kristaps Porzingis shoots five 3-pointers a game. Al Horford made seven of them against Indiana in a game last series. 

I don’t think Jason Kidd will abandon the Lively-Daniel Gafford pairing, but I do think a guy who could emerge with 20 minutes a night is Maxi Kleber, who might play a lot of small-ball five. 

Kleber was instrumental in the crucial Game 5 win over the Clippers, going 5-for-7 from distance. In the 2022 second-round upset of the Suns, Kleber shot 46% on 3-pointers. 

I’ll be looking at Kleber Overs, assuming he’s fully healthy. 

I’d like to see a game before making a pick on the series. I’ll ride with Dallas — again — but it does seem like a tall order to expect them to go into a fourth straight playoff series without home court advantage and come out on top. 

The Mavs, however, have been delivering big-time in the playoffs, going 6-1 straight up and 6-1 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs. 

The Celtics, meanwhile, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games because the market continues to price them based on their regular-season dominance. 

PICK: Mavs (+500) to win the NBA Finals in six games 

Long-shot MVP

Jrue Holiday, 50-1

You could make a case he’s the fifth-best player in the series. So why would I take the chance? 

He’s the best defender here, and his experience could be massive, as he’ll likely toggle between Luka and Kyrie Irving. You’re not stopping either player, but you can certainly slow them down in spurts or in pivotal moments. 

I also suspect the Mavs will try to "hide" Luka on Holiday defensively, as he isn’t as attack-minded as Tatum, Brown or even White. But Holiday shot a career-best 42% on 3-pointers this year. 

In the 2021 NBA Finals, he led everyone in assists and steals. 

The only precedent for a player like Holiday winning Finals MVP was Andre Iguodala of the Warriors in 2015, who won primarily for his defense on LeBron James despite Bron averaging 35.8 points, 13.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists. 

PICK: Jrue Holiday (+5000) to win Finals MVP

WILL HILL

There’s been a push and pull all postseason with the Celtics — "They haven’t played anyone … but they can only play who’s in front of them." Both sides are correct, which is why the Celtics are so hard to evaluate. I landed on them winning in seven because I think if we’re picking teams playground style, after the two best players for each team, the next three players off the board would all be Celtics (Holiday, Porzingis and Derrick White). 

It’s been eight years since we got a Game 7 in the NBA Finals. I think that changes this year with the Celtics winning it all in the season’s final game.

PICK: Celtics (+350) to win NBA Finals in seven games

GEOFF SCHWARTZ

It’s quite simple: I believe the Mavericks are going to beat Boston four times to win the NBA title. And when that happens, Luka will be the MVP because the Mavs are not beating the Celtics without him playing well. 

The Celtics are a deeper squad with more scorers and more ways to win. However, they are not trustworthy. I keep seeing Boston fans with the retort of, "The Celtics are just bored," just waiting for the Finals to play their best basketball and so on. These are value excuses when you’re the Kansas City Chiefs, a multiple-time Super Bowl winner. It’s a valid excuse for a LeBron James team who doesn’t play quite to its standard, but we know LeBron will have his team ready. Boston has not won anything to deserve this amount of trust. 

One other reason I believe in the Mavericks is their ability to close games. Doncic and Kyrie Irving are better at finishing games than Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown or even a healthy Kristaps Porzingis, back for this series. If any of these games get close in the fourth quarter, I know who I’m riding with to win the game for their team. 

PICK: Luka Doncic (+205) to win Finals MVP 

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