2024 NBA Finals odds: Can red-hot Mavericks conquer luck of the Irish?
After hitting the Mavs to get out of the West before the playoffs started, and then again before the Western Conference finals against Minnesota, I probably shouldn’t press my luck and go with Dallas again.
And let’s be realistic: The matchups — for the first time in the playoffs — don’t favor Dallas.
RELATED: Why does everyone doubt the Boston Celtics?
It’ll be difficult for rookie center Dereck Lively to have as much of an impact in this series as he did in the last two rounds, since he can’t be camped out near the basket against the Celtics and their five-out motion offense.
The season-long data says Boston is the side, which is why it is so heavily favored (-225).
Or, maybe we should toss the full-season data out the window because Dallas has been a different team since the trade deadline?
The teams did meet on March 1, at full strength, and if you’re into small sample sizes, the Mavericks were throttled 138-110.
Boston shot 21-of-43 on 3-pointers and rolled.
While Luka got whatever he wanted and finished with 37 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists on 56% shooting, Kyrie put up a stinker in his return to Boston.
One small, key difference to note is that Derrick Jones Jr, a pivotal postseason starter, came off the bench in that game. I suspect he’ll defend Jayson Tatum and/or Jaylen Brown.
Boston doesn’t play with a true center like Minnesota. Rudy Gobert's presence down low enabled Lively to be a rim protector and a huge force on the interior.
Who will he defend here?
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Kristaps Porzingis shoots five three-pointers a game. Al Horford made seven of them against Indiana in a game last series.
I don’t think Jason Kidd will abandon the Lively-Daniel Gafford pairing, but I do think a guy who could emerge with 20 minutes a night is Maxi Kleber, who might play a lot of small-ball five.
Kleber was instrumental in the crucial Game 5 win over the Clippers, going 5-for-7 from distance. In the 2022 second-round upset of the Suns, Kleber shot 46% on 3-pointers.
I’ll be looking at Kleber Overs, assuming he’s fully healthy.
I’d like to see a game before making a pick on the series. I’ll ride with Dallas — again — but it does seem like a tall order to expect them to go into a fourth straight playoff series without home court advantage and come out on top.
The Mavs, however, have been delivering big-time in the playoffs, going 6-1 straight up and 6-1 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs.
The Celtics, meanwhile, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games because the market continues to price them based on their regular-season dominance.
PICK: Mavs (+500 at Fanduel Sportsbook) to win the NBA finals in 6 games
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Long shot MVP
Jrue Holiday, 50-1
You could make a case he’s the fifth-best player in the series. So why would I take the chance?
He’s the best defender here, and his experience could be massive, as he’ll likely toggle between Luka and Kyrie Irving. You’re not stopping either player, but you can certainly slow them down in spurts or in pivotal moments.
I also suspect the Mavs will try to "hide" Luka on Holiday defensively, as he isn’t as attack-minded as Tatum, Brown or even White. But Holiday shot a career-best 42% on 3-pointers this year.
In the 2021 NBA Finals, he led everyone in assists and steals.
The only precedent for a player like Holiday winning Finals MVP was Andre Iguodala of the Warriors in 2015, who won primarily for his defense on LeBron James despite Bron averaging 35.8 points, 13.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists.
PICK: Jrue Holiday (+5000) to win Finals MVP
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. Follow him @jasonrmcintyre.
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