13 reasons James Harden deserves to be NBA MVP
UPDATE: James Harden dropped 51 on the Kings on Wednesday night.
This is the third of four posts this week on "Why Player X is the NBA's MVP." The other three featured players are Russell Westbrook, LeBron James and Stephen Curry (Thursday).
It's been a long time since an MVP race has been this tight, but here are 13 reasons why James Harden should ultimately take home the award.
1. He's had less help than any other candidate
The Rockets were supposed to be a two-man show after losing Chandler Parsons in free agency and striking out on Chris Bosh, but they haven't even been that.
Dwight Howard has only played in 35 games, and he's playing the worst basketball we've ever seen from him. Terrence Jones has played in just 25 games. Patrick Beverley missed significant time and is now out for the rest of the season.
No other MVP candidate has dealt with those kind of injuries to fellow starters, save for Russell Westbrook.
Stephen Curry has had Klay Thompson and Draymond Green with him every step of the way, and LeBron has had Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. Harden has had ...Trevor Ariza and Donatas Motiejunas? That's not quite the same.
2. Advanced stats love him more
Dealing solely in single-number metrics designed to capture a player's overall impact is a dangerous game, but it's telling that Harden leads the league in WAR, Win Shares, Win Shares per 48 and Offensive Real Plus/Minus this season. By those formulas, he's the MVP.
3. He's been more durable
No player has drawn more fouls this year, or even come reasonably close. Harden has been to the free throw line 739 times this year, which is 168 (!) more times than anyone else in the league.
Yes, Harden could sell ice to an Eskimo. Drawing and exaggerating contact is arguably his biggest strength. Any way you slice it, though, Harden is getting hit a lot every game. Even with all the fouls, he's still holding up better than anyone, as he leads the league in total minutes played.
Harden has played in 14 more games than Westbrook and 9 more than LeBron. With the margin for error being so tight in the MVP and playoff races, Harden's durability is a huge part of his case.
4. Houston's offense is 29th in the league with him off the floor
Without him on the court this season, Houston has an offensive rating of 96.2, which would be better than only the lowly Philadelphia 76ers extrapolated over a full season. The Knicks are better offensively than the Rockets are without James Harden. Think about that for a second.
What about the other candidates? Cleveland's offensive rating without LeBron on the floor is 104.3. Golden State's without Curry is 103.2. Oklahoma City's without Durant is 101.2. Again, Houston without Harden is 96.2. That's how valuable he is to Houston.
5. He's the league leader in multiple categories
He leads in minutes played, free throws and free throw attempts, as discussed earlier. Perhaps most impressively, though, is that Harden leads the league in total points by over 300 points. And before you think it's all about scoring, keep in mind that Harden is fifth in total assists and third in total steals as well.
6. Houston's next six minutes leaders all have PERs below 15
For Player Efficiency Rating (PER), a rating of around 15 is typically league average. Trevor Ariza, Donatas Motiejunas, Patrick Beverley, Jason Terry, Corey Brewer and Josh Smith all rank below that mark.
Before you run to the "he doesn't make his teammates better" argument, remember that Harden averages 7 assists a night and leads the league in offensive real plus/minus. He does make his teammates better —€“ they just can't do a whole lot unless he's spoon-feeding them wide-open looks. None of the previously mentioned players can create their own shot, and if they do, it's often a bad one. Oh, hey, Josh Smith. Didn't see you there.
7. He uses less possessions than LeBron and Westbrook
Harden has a reputation as a ball-hog, and while it's true that the ball is in his hands quite a bit, it's still not on the same level as LeBron or Westbrook. Harden has a usage rate of 31.3, while James checks in at 32.6 and Westbrook smokes them all at 38.3.
Basically, Harden's per game numbers would be even more impressive if he used as many possessions as Westbrook does. When you compare Harden's scoring efficiency (60.1 true shooting percentage) to Westbrook's (53.6 true shooting percentage), it makes you appreciate his 27.2 points per game a lot more than Westbrook's 27.6.
8. He's been more clutch than any other candidate
If we define a "clutch" situation as the game being within 5 points with less than two minutes left, Harden has blown away his competition. LeBron is shooting 37.9 percent under those parameters. Westbrook is shooting a ghastly 32.7 percent. Curry's sample size is smaller, but he's shooting 42.9 percent (and 1-for-7 from three).
What about Harden? He's much more in line with his regular numbers, shooting 45.5 percent from the field and from three. Let's just leave this here.
9. The Rockets have the fourth-best record in the league
The fourth best! The ghost of Jason Terry, in the golden age of point guards, is his main backcourt partner! This is crazy!
10. His defense has improved
Maybe the biggest knock on Harden's MVP case is his defense. And while it's true that James, Westbrook and Curry are all superior defenders, Harden isn't nearly the sieve he's been in the past. In fact, Harden's Defensive Real Plus/Minus rating (0.72) is in the green this year, and it's actually better than Westbrook's (-0.64).
You don't hear this much, but it's tough to be a great defensive player when you shoulder so much of the scoring load. If Curry gets tired, he can let Klay take the wheel. Harden can't do the same with Trevor Ariza, unless he wants his team driven off a cliff.
11. Westbrook's accomplishments are overblown
Time to get to the mudslinging. Westbrook has carried the Thunder to a likely playoff spot without Kevin Durant and, yes, that's impressive. He's certainly had some help from the other teams in the West, though. The Suns have imploded since the trade deadline, going 9-12 in that timeframe. The Pelicans have been better at 12-8, but still, it's not as though the Thunder are really being pushed.
Maintaining the 3-seed in the West is a tougher task than winning the 8-seed. Harden has had less help, he's played in way more games, and his team has been better.
12. He's more valuable to his team than Curry is
Maybe it's not fair that Curry's case is victimized by the quality of his teammates, but if we want to get literal, it's called the Most Valuable Player award. It's not the best player award —€“ LeBron would win every year. It's not the best player on the best team award, or else Tim Duncan would have more hardware.
Look at it this way: Would Golden State still be a playoff team this year if you replaced Curry with an average guard? Probably. Would Houston? No way.
13. He's played against tougher competition than LeBron
Five teams in the Eastern Conference are over .500. Just five. Plain and simple, LeBron has feasted on inferior competition much more than Harden has. The degrees of difficulty, especially since LeBron is flanked by two of the best offensive players in basketball, are vastly different. LeBron deserves the MVP nearly every season, but this isn't one of them.
No one has been more valuable to a legitimate contender than Harden has. He's the MVP.
All stats are accurate as of March 31 and are via Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
Follow D.J. Foster on Twitter: @fosterdj