Which Chasers are really in the race?
Jack Roush has an enviable challenge.
With four races remaining in the NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup, it appears that his drivers Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth will be battling against each other to the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
The prize? NASCAR’s Sprint Cup championship.
Edwards dodged a bullet — and 42 competitors — at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday to finish 11th and extend his points lead to 14 over Kenseth, who gained one position to second in the standings with an 18th-place finish.
“I don't know that I've ever been excited about 11th place,” Edwards said. “This race was one that is nerve-racking for everyone. We came in here with a small points lead, and we're leaving with a bigger one. That's a huge day for us.
“Even though it's not a win, it's a big battle in the war.”
In the history of the Chase, the driver holding the points lead after the sixth race has won the title in five of seven playoffs. In 2006 and '07, Jimmie Johnson overcame 41- and 53-point deficits, respectively, to win his first and second championships.
Since Johnson is seventh in the standings and 50 points out of the lead, the “anybody but Jimmie” supporters can rejoice. He’s a full race behind Edwards and shows no promise for a six-pack.
Edwards, in the No. 99 Ford, likely would have to choke over the next four events for sixth-place Kyle Busch to become a factor again, given his 40-point hole.
A wreck on Lap 104 on Sunday, triggered by Marcos Ambrose tagging AJ Allmendinger, not only damaged Busch's No. 18 Toyota, but it took Kevin Harvick out of contention. Harvick, who entered Talladega second in the standings, only five points behind Edwards, soldiered home to a 32nd-place finish, one position ahead of Busch, who finished 33rd.
Certainly, if Edwards falters, Harvick could be right back in it and overcome his 26-point shortfall. However, he would have to fight and claw his way through two-time Cup champ Tony Stewart, wunderkind Brad Keselowski and Kenseth, whose dominant 2003 title run served at the catalyst for the Chase, to get there.
The title for the final events could easily be “And then there were four
. . . as in races and drivers. Here’s how the competitors stack up on the next four tracks:
Carl Edwards
Edwards’ next “battle” will Martinsville, and it will be a battle for him. He has only one top-five finish there in 14 starts. He finished 18th in the spring but posted a pair of eighths last season. Overall, his average finish is 16.9, but the telling sign is Edwards has led only three laps on the 0.526-mile track. However, if Edwards survives Sunday it could be difficult for his fellow Chasers to catch him. He has six combined wins at the final three tracks. Edwards has won two of the past three races at Homestead, site of the season finale and enjoys an average finish of 5.7 there, by far the best on the circuit.
Matt Kenseth (-14)
Kenseth is the king of consistency. Where Edwards still has weaknesses at certain tracks, Kenseth finds a better balance. Kenseth hasn’t been great at Martinsville, but he has completed 99 percent of laps raced at the track. He has posted two top fives and seven top 10s, including a sixth-place finish in the spring. Kenseth has led 68 laps on the half-mile, paperclip-shaped track and has an average finish of 15.8. Kenseth has also won on the final three tracks on the schedule, including at Texas in the spring, where he enjoys an average finish of ninth.
With crew chief Jimmy Fennig, a fellow champion, at the helm of the No. 17 Ford, expect Kenseth to get up to speed quickly at the newly reconfigured Phoenix. Kenseth’s numbers at Homestead aren’t stellar because of two earlier engine failures, but in the past six races there, he has posted two top-five and four top-10 finishes. And if there’s anyone who can get under Edwards skin, it would be his teammate.
Brad Keselowski (-18)
Did anyone expect Keselowski to be sitting third in the standings with four races remaining in the Chase? Yes, the pair of Keselowski and crew chief Paul Wolfe have won a championship together — in the Nationwide Series — but the stakes are much higher in Sprint Cup. Still, since Loudon, 13 races ago, Keselowski has posted an average finish of 6.4 and shows no sign of slowing down. And with the exception of Loudon, he has improved at tracks the second time around.
Will that be the case on the final four tracks? For a newcomer, Keselowski has a respectful 13.7 finish at Martinsville and has completed 99.9 percent of all laps. Both his Dodge and that of teammate Kurt Busch have experienced super fuel mileage this season, which will pay off for Keselowski at both Texas and Homestead, where he has yet to crack the top 10.
Keselowski did lead 32 laps in the spring in Fort Worth and posted a career-best 13th at Homestead last year. If there’s a question mark on the final four races, it would be Phoenix. Yes, it’s a new layout for everyone, but the blue deuce found its way into the wall twice during the tire test earlier this month. Keselowski must find a way to put those mistakes in his rearview mirror.
Tony Stewart (-19)
"Smoke" entered the Chase making a huge statement by winning the first two races. But the next four races have been all over the place, similar to the champ’s mercurial personality. Still, Stewart is the only driver of these four to win on all four remaining tracks.
Stewart, 40, was once a machine at Martinsville, where he has two wins (but none since 2006), has led 1,194 laps and has finished in the top 10 in 52 percent of his starts. Stewart’s last win at Texas was also in 2006, but he posted an average finish of fifth as recently as 2009.
Stewart's previous average at Phoenix is 11.9, but he was solid at the tire test. If he’s the only Chevrolet standing by then, expect the bow-tie brigade to rally around him for the season finale. And Stewart could use the assist. All of his success at Homestead came under the old configuration, when he won the first two NASCAR races. Although he has had two top 10s in his past three events, Stewart has also been mired in 30th and 22nd in two of the past four races. The team’s final result will rest on the driver.