Ty Gibbs tops NASCAR prospect list heading into 2022 season

By Bob Pockrass
FOX Sports NASCAR Writer

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — Few would argue with the driver who sits atop my 2022 preseason prospect list.

Ty Gibbs won the NASCAR Xfinity Series rookie award after earning four wins and 10 top-10s in 18 starts last season. He’s set for a full-time season in 2022, and the next step for the 19-year-old grandson of Joe Gibbs is to handle the grind of a 33-race schedule.

"This is absolutely going to be a critical year for Ty because he's not just competing for race wins," said David Wilson, president of Toyota Racing Development. "This is where he needs to step back and make sure his goals are properly aligned. He's competing, first and foremost, for a championship. And that comes with winning races, obviously, but a completely different mindset than just jumping in the car eight times a year.

"Because in that respect, it's all about that one race — you're looking at the end of your nose. And so for Ty, it's broadening that horizon, it's taking a bigger-picture approach. It's establishing his brand."

Here is a look at my top 20 prospects to watch in 2022. Many compete in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series or the ARCA Series, whose seasons begin this weekend, with trucks Friday night and Xfinity and ARCA (national series) on Saturday at Daytona International Speedway.

But there are also some who are too young to compete in those series or other series but could eventually have a shot at a Cup ride.

A few parameters: This list consists of drivers age 28 or younger who don’t have more than a handful of Cup races on their résumés (so drivers such as John Hunter Nemechek, Daniel Hemric, Brett Moffitt and Josh Berry are not on this list) and don’t have full-time Cup rides. It is based primarily on talent, but the ability to land sponsorship is also taken into account, using my research and some input from a few driver scouts.

Previous rankings are from my prospect list published in August 2021.

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1. Ty Gibbs (age: 19, previous ranking: second): His four wins in 18 Xfinity races showed that his 18 wins in 47 ARCA national races the past three years were not just the product of having deep resources and possibly the best equipment.

2. Sam Mayer (18, third): Mayer averaged a 20th-place finish for JR Motorsports in 18 races last year. He struggled in several races, so why does he move up on this list? Because there is something to be said about being 18, learning the bigger tracks and maturing. Mayer's 2020 truck win at Bristol showed that he has talent. 

3. Sheldon Creed (24, fifth): The 2020 truck champion didn’t match his five wins in 2021, but he won three times and had the same number of top-5 finishes (nine). He will be tested while driving for Richard Childress Racing in the Xfinity Series this year, and he will need to be strong from the outset to show he belongs this high.

4. Noah Gragson (23, ninth): He has five wins and 30 top-5 finishes in 66 Xfinity races the past two years. Those numbers are solid but far from dominant. Gragson likely won’t be on this list much longer; he has 15 Cup races scheduled this season.

5. Zane Smith (22, fourth): He won a wild race at Martinsville in trucks last year and was second in the truck standings. He moves from GMS Racing to Front Row Motorsports for another year in trucks. He had the eye of Chip Ganassi for a Cup ride until Ganassi sold his team.

6. Chandler Smith (19, 12th): Smith earned two truck victories last year and had six top-5s along with winning the prestigious Snowball Derby race. His late surge allowed him to re-sign with KBM for another full season, and this could be his make-or-break year.

7. Corey Heim (19, 13th): He won six ARCA national races last year, but it would have been nice to see some better results in his three truck starts. Heim will get plenty more of those this year for Kyle Busch Motorsports.

8. Jesse Love (16, seventh): The back-to-back ARCA West champion finished in the top 10 in all 10 of his national ARCA starts last year. He does not, however, have a top-5 win in six starts in ARCA East, where there typically is a little more depth than in the West.

9. Carson Hocevar (19, eighth): His three top-5s and eight top-10s driving for Niece Motorsports in trucks last year certainly opened some eyes as far as his potential. He needs a win in 2022.

10. Ben Rhodes (24, 10th): The defending truck series champion turns 25 next week, and though he has found a nice home at ThorSport Racing, he needs some Xfinity starts (he hasn’t raced in the series since 2015) for the Cup teams to better evaluate him.

11. Hailie Deegan (20, 14th): Finishing 17th in the truck standings as a rookie is a sign that Deegan needs to make significant improvement. If she does — and there is something to be said about going to tracks for a second time, especially the bigger tracks, where she has little experience — she will move to Xfinity next season. If she doesn’t, many will wonder if her three ARCA West victories in 2018-19 led to a false sense of promise.

12. Christian Eckes (21, not rated): His truck win at Las Vegas and return to full-time truck racing with ThorSport will give him the opportunity to show that he can get it done on a consistent basis.

13. Derek Griffith (25, 19th): This highly touted prospect will finally get a chance to prove himself on the national level, as he will drive select Xfinity races for Sam Hunt Racing. At his age, Griffith doesn’t have a lot of time to prove himself.

14. Sammy Smith (17, 17th): The ARCA East champion had two top-5 finishes in three ARCA national starts last year. He is running all the ARCA races he can (though he can’t run Daytona because he’s not 18) for Kyle Busch Motorsports. 

15. Taylor Gray (16, 16th): Gray has 16 top-5s in 23 ARCA national races, an incredible stat. But he doesn’t have a win, so that’s the next step. 

16. Daniel Dye (18, 20th): The ARCA East runner-up, Dye won the ARCA national race last year at Berlin. GMS Racing is grooming this driver, and hopefully it can find a truck for him to run in some races later this year.

17. Austin Hill (27, 15th): Hill has eight truck victories the past three years, and his move to RCR, where he will be teammates with Creed, will give him a good measuring point as to where he sits in the prospect landscape.

18. Carson Kvapil (18, NR): The CARS Super Late Model tour champion will drive a Late Model for JR Motorsports this year. As Josh Berry and Sam Mayer have shown, that's a good way for JRM to notice a driver and eventually give him a shot in the Xfinity Series.

19. Isabella Robusto (17, NR): The young driver has been competing in Late Models and is the latest driver receiving significant support from Toyota.

20. Brent Crews (13, NR): It is kind of ridiculous to put a 13-year-old on this list. But the fact that he made the A-Main in his Chili Bowl prelim night, that he is part of Kevin Harvick Inc.’s youth division and that everyone is telling me to watch him is enough for me.

Others to watch: Tyler Ankrum, Toni Briedinger, Brandon Brown, Kaylee Bryson, Rajah Carruth, Mason Diaz, Jake Drew, Drew Dollar, Luke Fenhaus, Santino Ferrucci, Ernie Francis Jr., Kaz Grala, Tanner Gray, Riley Herbst, Brandon Jones, Derek Kraus, Raphael Lessard, Mason Massey, Ty Majeski, Thad Moffitt, Stefan Parsons, Layne Riggs, Myatt Snider, Kyle Weatherman, Josh Williams. 

Bob Pockrass has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s. He joined FOX Sports in 2019 following stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @bobpockrass. Looking for more NASCAR content? Sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass!