Surprise drivers in 2023 reflect on Cup seasons so far

Racing at Talladega Superspeedway always has fans braced for a possible surprise winner. The nature of racing in the aerodynamic draft that allows most cars to race in the main pack can make things unpredictable — and it can make for someone unexpected or unproven to hoist the trophy.

Ross Chastain won for just the second time in his Cup career a year ago at Talladega. Bubba Wallace earned his first career Cup win at Talladega in October 2022.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. earned his first career Cup win at Talladega back in May 2017, David Ragan won the first race for Front Row Motorsports at Talladega in May 2013, and Brad Keselowski won the first race for Phoenix Racing and himself in April 2009.

In the theme of surprises, some drivers have stood out so far in 2023. And when making this list, the thought was who has stood out beyond potentially doing well at Talladega and Daytona.

Stenhouse was 26th in the standings last year and now sits 13th this year. You might want to say it's because of the Daytona 500 victory, and that certainly helped. But he was averaging 16.1 points a race last year. This year, not including the Daytona 500, Stenhouse is averaging 21.9.

In the back of Stenhouse's mind: the fact that if there are more regular-season winners than the 16 spots in the playoffs, that he would get one of those spots based on points, which would be the tiebreaker among those with one win.

"We set the goal this offseason [and then] especially after we won, from there on out trying to average 23 points a race," Stenhouse said. "We're trying to gauge, make sure that if there are 17 winners, that we are far enough up on points.

"That's all we're focused on — being consistent, trying to hit our goals on points per race and doing a decent job of that."

Michael McDowell has built on a season in which he finished 23rd in the standings last year (he would have been 19th without a big penalty) and is 18th this year. But the biggest difference comes in the points — he averaged 20.9 points a race last year and 22.2 points this year. That isn't a huge jump, but it has come with a new crew chief in Travis Peterson, who came from Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing.

What's even more impressive is that McDowell ranks 13th this year in points when not counting the "superspeedway" racing events of Daytona and Atlanta. McDowell won the 2021 Daytona 500 for the only Cup victory in his 438 starts.

"We had 12 top-10s last year, so I feel like we're picking up where we left off last year," McDowell said. "We executed decent as far as not having terrible finishes.

"I feel like we should be further up. I have made too many mistakes." 

Staying in the Front Row Motorsports camp, how about Todd Gilliland, who is 23rd in the standings — and still 23rd when not counting the two superspeedway events? Gilliland was 28th last year and averaged 14.75 points a race. This year, he's averaging 18 points a race.

FRM opted prior to the season to put Zane Smith in the No. 38 Cup car for select events in 2023, leaving Gilliland without a ride for six races. Gilliland did a five-race deal with Rick Ware Racing and will drive the FRM No. 36 — its third, part-time car — this weekend at Talladega. Gilliland will use Smith's truck crew but will have his spotter move with him.

"I have confidence in myself, and I know my crew chief has a lot of confidence in what he's doing," Gilliland said about his regular crew chief, Ryan Bergenty. "That's the biggest thing — believing in what you're doing is right.

"I feel like we can keep surprising people for sure. ... Our cars are much faster and my experience is definitely a lot better [not being a rookie]."

Corey LaJoie finished last season 31st in the standings and sits 22nd nine in races into 2023. He has taken advantage of decent runs at Daytona and Atlanta — he ranks 26th overall when not including those two races. Last year, he averaged 12.9 points a race; this year he's averaging 19.2.

"I still think that we have a little bit of a ways to go to where our true potential is," LaJoie said.

And then there's rookie Ty Gibbs for Joe Gibbs Racing. Is being 20th in the standings a surprise? Not really but after a slow start, he had four consecutive top-10 finishes before Martinsville.

"The next step is trying to finish in the top five, but we're just going to keep our heads down and keep working," Gibbs said.

So will any of these drivers win Talladega? Stenhouse has a win there in his career and McDowell and Stenhouse have won two of the past three Daytona 500 races, so they both would not be a surprise if they win at Talladega.

"[Us winning] being a total shocking surprise, I would hope not, but at the same time, winning a race in the Cup Series is shocking enough, so hopefully we can get it done," McDowell said.

There are 16 spots available in the playoffs for drivers who win a race and then any leftover positions to winless drivers based on points. 

None of these drivers think they are close enough to what eventually would be the cutoff on points for winless drivers to make the playoffs. They are thinking win, just as Stenhouse did to kick off the season.

"We have a shot of being fast enough and consistent enough that if the opportunity presented itself to point our way in, we potentially could do that," McDowell said.

"My mindset is we have to win."

LaJoie has the confidence his team can continue to make people look at them as potential upsets in the making.

"I believe I'm a playoff guy," LaJoie said. "I want to continue to hone my skills and show that more often. ... On paper, there's only two or three teams that have a smaller budget or less people working on the cars than we do."

What To Watch For

When talking about Talladega Superspeedway, one of the first things mentioned is the big crash.

Last year, those crashes didn't happen near the end. They happened before the end of the second stage, in fact.

Except for a crash coming to the finish of the spring race, neither final stage had a caution for crash. The fall race had a late caution when Daniel Hemric was stalled on pit road.

Did that happen because drivers didn't want to take risks? Or did they feel they couldn't make the moves?

The final laps of Talladega are often thrilling, but the setup for those final laps potentially could take place much, much earlier in the race.

Thinking Out Loud

NASCAR did something unprecedented Tuesday — it asked for a penalty to be reduced during an appeal.

Kaulig Racing was making its last-ditch plea to the NASCAR Final Appeals Officer for the penalties issued to the Justin Haley team at Phoenix, penalties that received a slight reduction from 100 points to 75 points in the initial appeal.

A different initial appeals panel a week earlier had wiped away the points penalty for all four Hendrick teams for a violation of the same rule. 

NASCAR, citing fairness, asked final appeals officer Bill Mullis to rescind the points penalty for Kaulig to make the two rulings consistent. Mullis agreed.

This was the right decision by NASCAR. It could have avoided all appeals and just adjusted the penalty, but it obviously wanted to prove a point — no pun intended — that a points penalty was justified. Once it did that, NASCAR knew the poor optics of a powerhouse team such as Hendrick receiving a more favorable decision than a young team such as Kaulig. 

NASCAR's credibility, like that of most sports leagues, is often debated by passionate fan bases. This was a good and easy move by NASCAR to add to its case that it treats everyone fairly.

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They Said It

"My leg feels good. I've had a good couple of days since Martinsville and feel like I'm in a good place going into the weekend." —Chase Elliott on his return following surgery for a broken leg

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass, and sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass.

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