Sprint Cup Race No. 25: Darlington preview and prediction

The next to the last Sprint Cup regular season race is Sunday night at “The Track Too Tough to Tame,” with a lot at stake for drivers who have not clinched a spot in the Chase.

After an exciting end to the race at Michigan International Speedway — where Kyle Larson clinched his spot in the Field of 16 becoming the first graduate of the NASCAR Drive for Diversity and NASCAR Next programs to win a race — one less spot is open for those seeking to make the Sprint Cup Chase.

With just two events left on the regular season schedule, it becomes a “Win and You’re In” scenario for those not close enough to get in on points, and for those who are, it is crunch time if they plan on going for the title.

Brad Keselowski (4 wins), Kyle Busch (4 wins), Kevin Harvick (2 wins), Carl Edwards (2 wins), Denny Hamlin (2 wins), Jimmie Johnson (2 wins), Matt Kenseth (2 wins), Kurt Busch (1 win), Joey Logano (1 win), Martin Truex Jr. (1 win), Kyle Larson (1 win), Tony Stewart (1 win) have already clinched a spot, while Chris Buescher, who also has a victory, needs to hold on to his top 30 points position to make it as well. Currently he holds the final spot, a mere seven points in front of David Ragan.

That leaves just three spots left, and right now Chase Elliott (27 points above Ryan Newman on the cutoff line), Austin Dillon (+21) and Jamie McMurray (+15) have the inside edge. On the outside looking in are Newman (15 points behind Jamie McMurray on the cutoff line), Kasey Kahne (-52), Trevor Bayne (-58) and Ryan Blaney (-71).

One driver who will not make the Chase is Dale Earnhardt Jr., who will sit out the remaining regular season races, this week and next at Richmond. Because he does not have a win, he has fallen out of the top 16, sitting in 22nd.

For the rest of the field, Edwards will be looking to go back-to-back in the Bojangles’ Southern 500. The driver of the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 ARRIS SURFboard Toyota Camry came from two laps down to take the lead following the last round of pit stops, leading the last eight laps for the win. It was the first Darlington race held on Labor Day weekend since 2003.

“Darlington is one of the most fun races of the year – it’s a historic event and with the throwback paint schemes and everything,” said Edwards in a recent Toyota press release. “We won the race last year. It was one of the biggest wins of my career. Our Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have been really fast. We’ve been working well together as a team. We’ve got a special paint scheme to honor Tony Stewart’s first paint scheme that he had at JGR (Joe Gibbs Racing). Here it is his last season, so that’ll be cool. We’ll just go have a good time. We’ve got two races before the Chase to get a couple more bonus points and hopefully a couple trophies.”

PIT NOTES:
A number of teams will have throwback paint jobs on their cars for this year’s edition of the Southern 500, and as part of the celebration Ken Squier, Ned Jarrett and Dale Jarrett will be in the NBC booth to call part of the race. It is the second year in a row where Darlington Raceway will hold “Throwback Weekend,” and the focus this time around will be on the 1975-84 era of the sport.

PREDICTION:
Carl Edwards may be the defending champion; however, it is now or never for those looking to make the chase. Kasey Kahne moved up one spot in the NASCAR Power Rankings, and despite finishing in the top 10 at Darlington just four times in 13 tries, he is too far out to have a reasonable chance of making the Chase on points alone. He has the speed and would be the third and final Hendrick Motorsports team to make a run at the championship.

LONG SHOT:
While he really isn’t that much of a long shot per se, Ryan Blaney is on the verge of getting his first win and helping the single car Wood Brothers Racing team make the Chase. The 22-year old is coming off a terrific fourth place finish at Michigan, and that momentum could carry over to Darlington.