Richmond a perfect precursor to Chase

This is it.

Saturday night, the field will divide into those who have a shot to win the championship and those who do not. And some NASCAR drivers who currently appear to be in the second category will gain ground and be in the heat of the race.

This, though, will be a different Richmond International Raceway event. In the six previous seasons, when the Chase for the Sprint Cup field was set in this race, a host of drivers headed to the track with a shot at breaking into the group. In some seasons, those were high-profile drivers who were left on the outside looking in. Men like Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth fell to the wayside when they couldn’t overcome their points deficits in a final dramatic push to the championship.

Others, like Jeremy Mayfield, turned in a stunning win to burst onto the Chase scene. This year, it will take a catastrophic meltdown by Clint Bowyer, and, technically, by Greg Biffle, to allow for any changes in the Chase field. Biffle only has to finish 42nd in a 43-car field to guarantee his spot – and that finish is required only by a mathematical outlay of events that require him to falter while Ryan Newman would have to lead the most laps and win the race.

Bowyer needs only to finish 28th or better to snare his own spot. Again, he can finish deeper in the field if the perfect storm of competitor success doesn’t also occur.

So this race is less of a battle for the final Chase berth than in the past. But that might mean it is even more of a battle, overall.

After all, with less-cautious protecting of one’s Chase spot, drivers have more freedom to run aggressively.

For men like Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards, there’s a vast difference in finishing first and finishing second at Richmond. There is absolutely no difference in finishing second and finishing last.

Why not? Because after the Richmond race, the field will be seeded through a system that awards 10 bonus points for each win over the course of the season. So, for the 10 drivers already locked into the Chase field, the only thing that can alter their post-Richmond position is a victory.

So far, only seven Chase drivers have won a 2010 Cup race. Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have five wins apiece. Current points leader Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have three each. Kurt Busch has two. Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle have one. Gordon, Edwards, Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth and Bowyer, who is currently 12th in the field, have none. If Newman overcomes his 117-point deficit, he has one win and will leap over several contenders. Jamie McMurray, who is 128 points back, has a pair of wins.

Clearly, a Richmond victory could be a huge bonus for any of the Chase contenders. And that could alter the nature of the racing on the .75-mile short track come Saturday night.

Richmond has long been viewed as a tough little track to manage anyway, one where a missed turn can result in a multicar incident and where caution flags often fly freely. The 400-lap race offers little breathing room and no time to relax. Now, with everyone impatient to get to the front, it could offer even more of a battle.

Among Chase drivers, Johnson and Stewart lead the pack with three Cup wins each at the track. Dale Earnhardt Jr. also has a trio of victories there. Among Chase contenders, Gordon and Kyle Busch each have two wins; Bowyer, Burton, Kurt Busch, Harvick, Kenseth, Newman and Martin have a win each.

So who could be this weekend’s Air Guard 400 winner? Anyone, but watch out for the Chasers – especially with so much at stake and so little at risk.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at which three Chase contenders have historically finished at or near the top at Richmond. Bear in mind that several of the drivers who will leave Richmond with a shot at the championship have traditionally fared relatively well at the track:

Kyle Busch: No one has been hotter than Busch in recent years at Richmond. He has three consecutive top-five finishes and has won two of the last three Cup races there. In 11 starts, he’s finished in the top five nine times. He’s the most recent winner there and brings a stellar finishing average of 5.5 to the track. Oh, and he’s generally great under pressure and is hungering for those 10 bonus points, making him one to watch Saturday night.

Denny Hamlin: The Virginia native was beset with problems through one stretch of races at the track, leading numerous laps before being sidelined with a win practically in sight. He’s still earned a Cup win at the track and, in nine starts, has earned five top-10 finishes, four of them top-fives. He brings an average finishing percentage of 8.8 to the track and is looking to grab the top position heading into the Chase and regain his momentum heading into the championship run.

Tony Stewart: The series' most recent winner, Stewart heads to a track where he’s comfortable and confident. He has three victories at Richmond and, in 23 starts there, has tallied 15 top-10 finishes, nine of them top-fives. He heads into this weekend with an average finishing position of 10.9 – and looking to visit Victory Lane for the second consecutive week.

While these men try to add to their success at Richmond, others are hoping to overcome a string of poor results at the sometimes daunting little track. Which three drivers would probably prefer to be ushering in the Chase at another site?

Jamie McMurray: Although he enters Richmond with only an outside shot at making the Chase, McMurray knows how important stepping up in this event is. He’s left Richmond just a few points shy of the championship-determining field on two previous occasions. It’s just not his best track. In the past, McMurray has only three top-10 finishes in 15 Cup starts there. He brings an average finish of 25.2 at the track, worst among all Chase contenders.

Kurt Busch: The Penske driver is rebuilding momentum after a series of races in which he didn’t enjoy his strongest performances, and would like to continue that push at Richmond. He’d also like to add another victory to his tally. While he has won at Richmond before, in 19 starts Busch has tallied just six top-10 finishes, three of them top-fives, and enters the weekend carrying an average finishing position of 17.8. He’s clearly looking to significantly improve on that this weekend.

Matt Kenseth: The Roush Fenway Racing driver is kind of cruising along this season with a series of consistent finishes, but not necessarily regularly challenging for wins. Now he heads to the Richmond track where he once won in stunning fashion, recovering from losing laps early, but where he has only the lone victory in his 21 starts. Kenseth has nine top-10 finishes, three of them top-fives, for an average finish of 17.0 at the track.