NASCAR stars on playoff bubble with two races left in regular season

INDIANAPOLIS — Some of NASCAR's biggest stars could potentially miss the Cup Series playoffs, which shouldn't surprise anyone.

The nature of the win-and-in playoff system creates a little bit of that dynamic.

Last year, former Cup champions Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski missed the cut to make NASCAR's version of the postseason.

This year, 2020 Cup champion Chase Elliott faces a must-win situation in the last two weeks.

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Another four drivers who made the playoffs last year — Alex Bowman, Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon and Chase Briscoe — all face must-win situations. Daniel Suarez, who also made the playoffs last year, currently is the first driver outside the cutoff, 28 points behind Bubba Wallace.

If another driver outside the bubble wins, that pushes out Wallace, who is seeking his first career playoff berth.

The 16-driver NASCAR playoff field consists of the regular-season champion and then 15 drivers based on number of wins with ties broken by points. So far, 13 drivers have clinched playoff berths with wins and two races — Watkins Glen and Daytona — remain to determine the final three spots.

Former Cup champions Kevin Harvick (+145 on the current cutoff) and Brad Keselowski (+143) are winless this year but would make the playoffs as long as there are not two new winners in the final two races. If there are two new winners, one of them would miss.

"I missed the playoffs in 2013 and then last year in 2022, and it stinks for you, but the sport moves on it just like you weren't even there," Keselowski said. "It's a very humbling moment when you miss the playoffs when you've had a lot of years of success. I have a lot of empathy for whether it be Chase or some of the other guys on the outside."

Last year, Truex missed the playoffs because he didn't win in the regular season even though he was top-five in the point standings.

"The reality is that's the moments the system was meant to create," Keselowski said. "And sometimes it can create those moments whether the sport wants them or the fan base wants them or not.

"That's just part of our sport right now."

The fan base probably wants the win-and-in scenario right now because it is the only way Elliott can get into the postseason. Elliott has been voted the most popular driver in the sport for five consecutive years. He has not won and is out of contention by points at least partly because he has missed seven races — six because of a broken leg suffered in a snowboarding accident and one for a suspension for egregiously wrecking Denny Hamlin.

"Without the playoff system, our season would have been over," Elliott said. "You're not going to miss six weeks and points your way back in probably, not unless you just run really, really good.

"It's given us an opportunity to get back in the ballgame. We're going to keep working really hard just like we've been doing and show up prepared every week to go to work and hope that we can get going in the right direction."

Finishing second Sunday on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course was going in the right direction, but Elliott knows that time is running out.

He at least is carrying some momentum into Watkins Glen, which historically has been one of his best tracks. He has two wins there and was in contention last year when he tangled with teammate Kyle Larson on the final laps.

"I certainly had a fast [car at Indy] and you have got to be fast to have a shot to win, so that was good," Elliott said. "We just need to be a little better."

Adding to Elliott's pain of finishing second Sunday was the fact that Michael McDowell, one of the drivers on the brink of the playoff bubble, won and clinched a spot in the playoffs.

It also made Wallace's playoff situation more precarious. He had a 58-point cushion on the cutoff going into Indianapolis but now with at most three instead of four drivers getting in on points, that gap shrunk to 28.

Road courses are not Wallace's strength and while he is a solid superspeedway racer, he knows that there is a good chance of being collected in a wreck at Daytona.

How is Wallace handling it all? He's trying not to stress over it.

"When you don't give a damn about things, that makes things fun, right?" Wallace said. "When you start thinking and overthinking — that dials yourself right out and it's not fun.

"I'm a damn good person at overthinking things, especially when it comes to road-course racing and taking the fun right out of it. You've just got to go out and get back to the basics."

Wallace said this is a little bit new to him because in the past, wrecks and mistakes have kept him from being in a position to make it on points.

"I've never been in this spot," Wallace said. "My dad probably watches this stuff and he's probably right there with me — we've always hated points racing and it's always bitten us for some reason. ... But we're here.

"We're making the most of it."

Bowman has made the playoffs in each of the past five years driving for Hendrick Motorsports. Now he's perilously close to missing the cut in a year in which he broke his back, forcing him to sit out three points races. He also had a 60-point penalty for a car body violation earlier this year.

Not known for road-racing prowess and not a huge fan of the superspeedways, Bowman vowed to make the best of the next two weeks.

"It's not two of my best racetracks by any means," Bowman said after a fifth-place finish at Indianapolis. "I think I was sitting on the couch for my best racetracks this year, but at the same time, we'll go give it our all.

"We're not going to lay down and quit. And days like today where we come to a racetrack that we've struggled for last couple years and excel at it and come out of here with a good finish — a couple things happen, and the scenario could be different. So we've got a shot at it for sure."

Thinking Out Loud

After three years of races on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, it certainly seems to be a good time to move to the oval for next year.

I'm among those who would have liked this race to have remained on the oval, which just seems more prestigious. But moving to the road course did change the dynamic and added intrigue.

With the way the Next Gen car has performed on intermediate-style tracks, it's time to see how it does on an oval. Goodyear is conducting a tire test on the IMS oval Monday and Tuesday and that is a good sign that NASCAR will make a return to making only left-hand turns at Indianapolis next year.

In The News

--Michael McDowell and Todd Gilliland have had their options picked up at Front Row Motorsports to remain in their Cup seats. The team's truck series driver, series defending champion Zane Smith, is now allowed to look for another ride because the team didn't offer him a spot in its Cup lineup.

--Kevin Harvick said Saturday that he dealt with a significant rib injury over the past couple of months. When he was in Italy in June, he fell down a flight of stairs and busted his ribs, an injury that took several weeks of recovery all while Harvick was racing.

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Stat of the Day

Michael McDowell leads all drivers in points earned in the 10 races on road courses in the Next Gen car. But that was the case even prior to him winning Sunday.

They Said It

"Are we going to be a Championship 4 team? I don't know. But I bet we'll piss some people off in that first round." —Michael McDowell on clinching a spot in the playoffs with his win at Indy

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass, and sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass.