NASCAR: Five Drivers Most Likely To Win At Richmond

Apr 24, 2016; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Kurt Busch (41) races driver Kyle Busch (18), driver Kevin Harvick (4), and driver Carl Edwards (19) during a restart in the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

NASCAR’s final race before the Chase is approaching and there are still spots up for grabs. Take a look at five drivers who could win on Saturday.

We’re less than two weeks away from the Chase but the focus will be on this weekend as one of NASCAR’s most important races of the season is next on the schedule.

Richmond International Raceway features two NASCAR races every year. The first usually comes in April, and this season, we saw a thrilling finish in which Carl Edwards was able to get past Kyle Busch in the final turn. The second comes in early September as Richmond decides who will make the Chase and who’s quest for the championship comes to an early end.

The 0.75-mile track is one of a kind as it is the only track of that length in the circuit. Richmond features turns much wider than the typical short track and laps are usually completed in the 15-second range. It’s the perfect setup for a race that determines the postseason field.

Coming into the weekend, there will be just three Chase spots available since we’ve seen 13 different winners in 2016.

Chase Elliott (+39), Austin Dillon (+31) and Jamie McMurray (+22) all hold comfortable leads over Ryan Newman, who is the first driver below the cut-line. But as we’ve seen in recent seasons, anything can happen when a spot in the Chase is up for grabs.

Check out a few drivers who could win this weekend.

Aug 19, 2016; Bristol, TN, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Busch (18) during practice for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

The Favorite: Kyle Busch

Stats at Richmond:

Kyle Busch has been enjoying another great season in 2016 and there’s no doubt he’ll be a factor at Richmond this weekend.

The track has been one of his best over the years. His average finish of 6.9 is the best among active drivers and his second best average finish among all tracks.

Throughout his career at Richmond, Busch has been quite incredible. He won four races in four years (2009-2012) and he has six second-place finishes at the track. Besides Jeff Gordon, Busch has the most top-5’s out of all active drivers, with the next-highest total coming in the form of Tony Stewart’s 11.

He’s finished outside of the top-15 just four times in 22 starts and has led 1,018 laps, which is the fourth-best total among active drivers. He’s also led over 225 laps in three different races.

Coming into Saturday, Busch will be riding a streak of two-straight second places finishes at Richmond and he’ll certainly be looking for some momentum heading into the Chase where he will look to defend his title as champion.

Kyle Busch is your favorite heading into the weekend.

Aug 21, 2016; Bristol, TN, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during the rain delayed Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Contender No. 1: Kevin Harvick

Stats at Richmond:

It’s simple. Kevin Harvick is a contender no matter what track layout NASCAR visits. This weekend, Harvick will be even more dangerous as he’s earned five top-10 finishes at short tracks so far this season.

His career at Richmond has featured three wins. The first came back 2006, after he led 54 laps, the second came in 2011 on a day where Harvick led more than half of the race (202 of 400 laps) and his most recent win came in 2013 when he drove from seventh to first in just one lap to lead the final three laps of the race.

With an average finish of 10.6, Harvick will definitely be near the front of the pack on Saturday, but one thing to watch will be his pit crew’s performance.

He criticized his team after last weekend’s race at Darlington, when two late stops caused him to slide back in the order. It wasn’t the first time his team has had issues on pit road this year, and in response to that, he gained two new members from Danica Patrick’s crew.

If all goes well on pit road, Kevin Harvick could find himself in Victory Lane at Richmond again.

Jul 29, 2016; Long Pond, PA, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Carl Edwards (19) during qualifying for the Pennsylvania 400 at Pocono Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O

Contender No. 2: Carl Edwards

Stats at Richmond:

Carl Edwards is currently racing through one of his best seasons and along the way, he’s earned an impressive win at Richmond.

Back in April, Edwards led 151 laps at the track and earned his second win of the season after a bump and a pass in the final turn of the afternoon. That wasn’t the first time Edwards had reached Victory Lane at the track, as he had made a visit back in 2013 after leading 46 laps.

He hasn’t had as much success at the track as the previous two drivers mentioned, but he’s had dominant days–like in 2013 when he led 206 laps despite a 10th-place finish.

If Edwards continues to race the way he has throughout the course of this season, I expect him to make a deep run in the Chase. He fell just short of making it to Homestead in 2015, and with the power we’ve seen from the Toyota cars this year, there’s no reason why he can’t go the distance.

Expect Carl Edwards to go hard for the season sweep at Richmond when cars hit the track on Saturday night.

Aug 19, 2016; Bristol, TN, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Joey Logano (22) during practice for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Contender No. 3: Joey Logano

Stats at Richmond:

Joey Logano has made a name for himself over the past couple of seasons with his racing at short tracks. Since 2014, he has four wins on such tracks with one coming at Richmond.

That race at Richmond came back in the spring of 2014 as Logano went on to lead 46 laps en route to a victory. But that hasn’t been his only highlight at the track. Through the first eight races of his career there, Logano struggled, as he earned just one top-10, but since then he’s been solid.

Logano has finished six of his last seven races at Richmond in eighth or better and he’s currently running on a streak of five straight top-10 finishes there, with all 165 of his laps led coming in those races.

It hasn’t been a routine season for Logano–as he’s only captured one win–but he’s still third in the overall driver standings, falling right behind his teammate, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick.

Look for Logano to stay near the front of the pack again this weekend.

Apr 8, 2016; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Ryan Newman (31) drives down the front stretch during qualifying for the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Underdog: Ryan Newman

Stats at Richmond:

There’s going to be a lot of notable names battling for a win and a spot in the Chase on Saturday, but Ryan Newman is the one that stands out the most.

Initially, he was just seven points behind Jamie McMurray for the final spot, which meant there was a possibility that he could race himself in on points. However, after failing post-race inspection and losing 15 points, he now finds himself 22 points behind McMurray, meaning he most likely needs a win to get in.

If there’s one thing we know about Newman, it’s that he seizes every opportunity he gets. Last weekend, he led nine laps late at Darlington and used strategy to earn a better finish. We’ve seen him race his way through the Chase before too.

Though Newman hasn’t won since 2013, he has made it to Victory Lane at Richmond once before–even if it was back in 2003.

It would certainly shake things up if he won, but situations like these bring out the most aggressive Ryan Newman we know. He could pull off a huge win this weekend at Richmond.