NASCAR playoffs: Breaking down the unpredictable Round of 12

Published Sep 21, 2021 9:50 am ET

By Bob Pockrass
FOX Sports NASCAR Writer

Welcome to the round of the unpredictable.

It's also known in the NASCAR world as the Round of 12. Or, for those who prefer a more general sports term, the quarterfinal round.

The second round of the NASCAR playoffs consists of a 1.5-mile track (Las Vegas), a superspeedway (Talladega) and a road course (Charlotte’s "Roval" course). Superspeedways are notorious for unpredictable and unexpected results — good and bad — because of big crashes. The road courses can be feast or famine because few cars get lapped on a road course, meaning one incident or excursion off-course can send a driver from second to 25th or worse.

Las Vegas? It is wide enough that drivers can go four-wide on restarts as drivers jockey to get to the preferred groove.

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"You see plenty of times in the four-wide moments, all it takes is a car to touch each other, knock a fender in, cut a tire down," Joey Logano said. "It has happened there. It will happen again. ... Then you bring up Talladega and the Roval.

"The Roval [at Charlotte] is one of the [tamest] race tracks of the three."

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Let's break down the Round of 12. NASCAR will eliminate the four winless drivers with the fewest points in the round after Charlotte:

FINAL FOUR-BOUND

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Kyle Larson (1-seed): He was the only one listed in this category when the playoffs started and is still the only driver who has separated himself enough from the field and earned enough playoff points that he should have no issue advancing through the next two rounds. You can talk about the unpredictability in this round all you want, but Larson won Las Vegas earlier this year (his first as a Hendrick driver) and has two road-course wins this year. No sweat.

KEEP ON KEEPING ON

Martin Truex Jr. (2): Truex posted two top-5s and one top-10 in the opening round, and if he does that again, he’ll advance. He was sixth at Vegas earlier this year, and it will be important that he does well again. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has two top-10s in his three Charlotte road-course starts.

Denny Hamlin (3): Hamlin finally snapped his season winless drought three weeks ago at Darlington. He was fourth at Vegas in March and is always a threat at the superspeedways. If he gets in a bind to have to perform at Charlotte, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver doesn’t have a top-10 finish in the three races on that road course, so that could be a concern.

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Kevin Harvick (12): Why would Harvick be in this grouping, considering that he is the lowest seed? Well, he was the lowest seed going into the previous round, and he clinched a spot in this round before the final race even ended. The only drivers with top-10s in each of the first three playoff races: Larson, Truex, Hamlin ... and Harvick, who ranked third among them in points scored in the playoffs. His biggest concern was that he was 20th in Vegas earlier this year. Harvick is the only Stewart-Haas Racing driver remaining and the only driver not from Hendrick, Gibbs or Penske.

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BUTTON UP

Chase Elliott (6): Elliott had too much misfortune in the opening round to think that if he does what he has been doing, he’ll be fine. The Hendrick driver has had speeding penalties, confusion on pit road and contact on the race track, and he ranked ninth among playoff drivers in points earned in the opening round. If it comes down to the Charlotte road course, there is no doubt that he can get it done, as he has won two of three races there and also has two road-course wins this year. He was 13th at Vegas in March.

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NEED FOR SPEED

Kyle Busch (5): Busch wasn’t happy with his car often in the first round, as his team just didn’t have enough to keep up with the leaders at Darlington and Bristol. His 60 points earned in the opening round were 15th among the 16 playoff drivers and worst among those who advanced. The two-time Cup champion was third at Las Vegas earlier this year and needs to get off to a good start. If it comes down to the Charlotte road course, things could be dicey: The Joe Gibbs Racing driver hasn’t finished top-10 at that track in his three starts there since that hybrid road-course-and-oval began in 2018.

Alex Bowman (7): Bowman’s performance will have to improve from the first round if he wants to advance, and his record this year says that could be a tough task. He was 27th at Vegas earlier this season, he has one top-10 in the three superspeedway races, and he hasn’t had a top-10 in the past four road-course events, despite his Hendrick teammates winning three of those events.

William Byron (8): Byron was impressive in rallying from 18 points behind the cutoff to finish third at Bristol to vault in the points and into the second round. The Hendrick Motorsports driver was eighth at Vegas earlier this year and second at Talladega. His road-course races have been feast-or-famine, but he has two top-10 Charlotte road-course finishes.

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Joey Logano (9): Logano was ninth at Las Vegas, but matching that could be tough, as the Penske organization is still behind in the 550 horsepower package. What could be promising is that Logano is one of four drivers — along with Elliott, Bowman and Ryan Blaney — with top-10 finishes in each of the three Charlotte road-course races. A strong Talladega, at which the Penske drivers have won two of three races this year (Brad Keselowski at Talladega in April and Ryan Blaney at Daytona last month), is a must.

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Ryan Blaney (4): Blaney has an 11-point cushion on the cutoff, and that might not be enough. But first, the good news: He made it out of the opening round, which he failed to do last year. Also, he was fifth at Las Vegas in the spring and won the last intermediate-track race at Michigan, as well as the last superspeedway race at Daytona. The Team Penske driver might need some restarts to fall his way to advance.

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Brad Keselowski (10): He was second at Las Vegas and won at Talladega earlier this year, so no problem, right? Keselowski’s mercurial season — and his departure after this year to be a co-owner and driver at Roush Fenway Racing — probably doesn’t give his team a lot of confidence. But he did have a seventh, sixth and 13th in the first round. The Penske drivers ranked fifth (Logano), sixth (Keselowski) and seventh (Blaney) in points earned in the round.

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Christopher Bell (11): Of the remaining drivers, Bell is the one with the least playoff experience (first year) and Cup experience (second year). The Joe Gibbs Racing driver was seventh at Vegas earlier this year and did win on the road course at Daytona, but for Bell, it likely will come down to whether he can earn a top-10 at Talladega. He has not had a top-10 at Daytona or Talladega in his Cup career.

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Bob Pockrass has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s. He joined FOX Sports in 2019 following stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @bobpockrass. Looking for more NASCAR content? Sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass!