NASCAR Contender Rankings: Clinching Scenarios For Last 3 Drivers In The Chase

What more is there to say in these rankings than what was said last week?

The Hendrick Motorsports team will say all the right things, but they’ve got to feel good about their position for Kyle Larson to win his third Cup title as he enters the season finale Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 67-point lead on Christopher Bell and a 70-point lead on Denny Hamlin.

Max points in a race is 76, with NASCAR awarding points on a 10-to-1 scale to the top 10 in each stage. 

One point goes to the driver with the fastest lap in the race and 55 points to the winner and the rest of the race finishers on a 35-to-1 scale.

Eliminated (Alphabetical Order)

Ryan Blaney (Team Penske No. 12 Ford)
Chase Briscoe (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota)
Chris Buescher (RFK Racing No. 17 Ford)
William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet)
Austin Cindric (Team Penske No. 2 Ford)
Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet)
Ty Gibbs (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 54 Toyota)
Carson Hocevar (Spire Motorsports No. 77 Chevrolet)}
Joey Logano (Team Penske No. 22 Ford)
Ryan Preece (RFK Racing No. 60 Ford)
Tyler Reddick (23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota)
Daniel Suarez (Spire Motorsports No. 7 Chevrolet)
Bubba Wallace (23XI Racing No. 23 Toyota)

Here’s What To Know About Clinching Scenarios:

— Larson owns the tiebreaker with three wins in The Chase, while Bell has one and Hamlin has none.

 — Larson clinches with nine points at Homestead, which is 28th place with no stage points. Eight stage points or seven stage points and the fastest lap point will also clinch it.

— Bell needs to win and earn 14 stage points (or 13 stage points and the fastest lap point) for any chance.

— Hamlin needs to win and earn 17 stage points (or 16 stage points and the fastest lap point) for any chance.

So my contender rankings should be obvious, as only three drivers remain of the 16 who started the playoffs.

Can Hamlin win at Homestead? It’s doubtful, as he has finishes of seventh, 30th, third and fifth at the track in the Next Gen era. He just isn’t typically as strong as Larson, Tyler Reddick and others at the track that rewards running up against the wall.

Bell won the 2023 race at Homestead, which was just the second Next Gen race at the track. He was 11th in 2022, fourth in 2024 and 29th in 2025. He could be a threat. He hasn’t won on a 1.5-mile track all year but did earn 73 points in his victory to open The Chase at Darlington.

Larson wins the title as long as he doesn’t beat himself. He occasionally does beat himself at Homestead, as the track lends itself to a driver willing to drive on the edge to make something happen. But this track will also occasionally bite a driver trying to make a move. If he needs to take his mind off what could happen, maybe he should just start working on his championship speech.