NASCAR Chase Contenders Learning What The Math Already Indicated: Wins Matter

Math, even in an engineering-based sport such as NASCAR, is apparently hard.

When most of the competitors in any NASCAR series talk about The Chase and the new format, it often includes some version of winning is important.

Yeah, of course. 

A win earns a driver 55 points. Second is worth 35 points. If a driver sweeps both stages and wins and earns the point for the fastest lap, that means the driver will earn at least 23 points more than any other driver and potentially 60-70 points on a driver who doesn’t have a good day.

So when Joey Logano went on a tear during the summer, going from 20th in the standings to inside the top 10 in a matter of weeks and when Kyle Larson put a decent buffer between himself and the field by earning max points at Kansas, the math was startling.

Even Tyler Reddick winning the first three races and bolting to a 100-point lead on the field early in the year wasn’t enough to warn many. He had a 110-point lead after 10 races and ended up third in the standings to the tune of 133 points behind Denny Hamlin after 26 events.

"Maybe we’re not as smart as we think," Logano said with a laugh during a recent virtual news conference.

"Look at Tyler Reddick at the beginning of the year. He was checked out [and] I already penciled him in as the regular-season champion," Logano said. "I figured that was for sure, but as quickly as they get out there and take a big lead it can change just as quick if someone else gets hot at the right time.

"We’ve seen it. We’ve lived it."

It should have been apparent to everyone, right? If anyone had run some models, they would have noticed how much fluctuation in the standings could come when someone wins.

When his driver won at Texas earlier this year, Chase Elliott crew chief Alan Gustafson indicated he felt a driver could viably win the title even if he was not near the top of the standings at the start of The Chase.

"When you look at how Tyler started the season and the lead that he had over the course of the first five or six weeks, I'm like, ‘Gosh, 100-point lead, they'd have a hard time messing that up, really,’" Elliott told me and other reporters last week.

"And little did you realize — or little did I realize — people stack a couple wins, and guys can have 70-plus point days if they're having a good day. ... Certainly, the added bonuses of winning and those 20 points certainly, and potentially the fastest lap, if you have that. I know it doesn't sound like a lot, but every one stacks."

Even with the ability to make a run or increase the gap with points, the biggest difference between this Chase and the former elimination Chase is that going into Charlotte this weekend, there would still be 12 drivers vying for a title because a win could advance them to the next round.

After this race, there would still be eight drivers who could have a good shot at winning the title.

Now there are six, and even that’s a little bit of a reach since two of the drivers are at least 80 points back. 

Yes, that might be doubting the math again, but you’ve got to figure that a driver more than 100 points out is going to need three wins in the final six to be able to cut the gap on the drivers who are at the top and surging already.

Tyler Reddick is the driver in seventh, the driver who is 106 points out of the lead. After five races this year, Reddick had a 61-point lead on the field and he had won three races. After six, he had a 95-point cushion.

It was a cushion that went away and he eventually lost the lead after the 18th race of the season. 

There are only five races left. The math tells us everyone has a shot. The reality tells us not everyone has a shot.

What the drivers do know is they pretty much have to win at some point over the final five races to win the title.

And in some ways the outlook is the same as always.

"Everybody here is the best of the best and they can turn it on and figure things out," Blaney told me and other reporters on Saturday. "That’s why you continue to work and never give up.

"They’ve been able to do that very well and it’s going to take a lot to catch them."