Do the math: Your NASCAR Chase scenarios heading to Richmond

By Tom Jensen
Published

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series rolls into Richmond International Raceway this weekend with 14 of 16 drivers already locked into the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Saturday night's Federated Auto Parts 400, the 26th and final race of the Sprint Cup regular season, will decide who the last two Chase participants will be.

In theory, 19 drivers can still race their way into the Chase. The reality is more like a handful have a real shot of qualifying for NASCAR's 10-race, season-ending, playoff round.

Here's the Chase lineup so far:

Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have three victories each.

Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick are both two-time winners.

Drivers who made it into the Chase by winning once are AJ Allmendinger, Aric Almirola, Kurt and Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Kasey Kahne.

Matt Kenseth is locked into the Chase on points.

Per NASCAR, here are the scenarios for the 19 drivers who still have a chance to make the Chase at Richmond:

If there is a repeat winner at RIR, Kenseth and two other winless drivers would make the Chase. If there is a first-time 2014 winner, Kenseth and one other winless driver would make the Chase.

Any currently winless driver who wins at Richmond, and is in the top 30 in the NASCAR Sprint Cup driver points standings, would get a spot in the Chase.

Only Ryan Newman controls his own destiny Saturday night.

If there is a repeat 2014 winner, or if Kenseth wins, Newman is guaranteed a spot in the Chase if he finishes 41st or better; or 42nd with at least one lap led; or 43rd and the most laps led. If there is a new winner other than Kenseth, Newman is guaranteed a Chase spot with a finish of 18th or better; 19th and at least one lap led; or 20th and the most laps led.

Barring an awful night, Newman looks to be in good shape.

Greg Biffle controls his own destiny if there is a repeat winner. If there is a repeat 2014 winner -- or if Kenseth or Newman wins -- Biffle is guaranteed a spot in the Chase if he finishes 22nd or better; or 23rd with at least one lap led; or 24th and the most laps led. If there is a new winner other than Kenseth or Newman, Biffle needs to out-point Newman by 19 points and stay ahead of Clint Bowyer and Kyle Larson.

Bowyer and Larson are the only other two drivers who can race their way into the Chase on points. Bowyer is 23 points behind Biffle, while Larson is 24 back.

Drivers who can only make the Chase with a win at Richmond are: Paul Menard, Austin Dillon, Jamie McMurray, Brian Vickers, Marcos Ambrose, Casey Mears, Martin Truex Jr., Tony Stewart, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Danica Patrick, Justin Allgaier, Michael Annett, David Gilliland, David Ragan and Cole Whitt.

Of those 15, only Stewart has won at Richmond before. In fact, Stewart has three victories here. 

In the first 10 editions of the Chase, four times drivers have raced their way in at Richmond: Jeremy Mayfield in 2004, Newman in '05, Kahne in '06 and Vickers in '09. Jeff Gordon was added as a 13th driver last year, as well.

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