Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson? A lot can change as the Cup Series playoffs unfold
By Bob Pockrass
FOX Sports NASCAR Writer
DARLINGTON, S.C. — Watching Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson battle for the win Sunday at Darlington Raceway, it was difficult not to envision them battling that way all the way through to the championship in nine weeks at Phoenix Raceway.
But history says to not get too excited over the opening round of the playoffs, especially the opening race.
Only once in the seven years of a format in which drivers are eliminated after a series of three-race rounds has the driver who won the playoff opener won the championship. That happened in 2017, when Martin Truex Jr. captured the title.
In two of the past three years, the winner of the playoff opener didn’t make it to NASCAR’s version of its "final four" — the four drivers eligible for the title in the final race. Last year, Kevin Harvick won at Darlington, one of his nine wins of the year, but was eliminated in the semifinal round.
"The first rounds are maybe not the greatest indicator on who’s going to win," said Alan Gustafson, the crew chief for defending Cup champion Chase Elliott. "I think you have to be competitive at those rounds. Certainly, you have to be really good.
"But the guy that’s strongest in the first round, I wouldn’t say would necessarily be the odds-on favorite to win the championship. ... I would say more than the first round, probably just the whole body of work of the season would be a better indicator than the first round."
If looking at a body of work, maybe it would be proper, this year, to look at Larson and Hamlin. They finished 1-2 in the regular-season standings. Larson won five points races and the all-star race. Hamlin did everything but win, posting 13 top-5 finishes in the 16-race regular season before outlasting Larson at Darlington.
"I would love to race Larson in the last race, the same as I would have loved to race Harvick last year in the final race," said Hamlin, who won seven times last year. "But you just never know.
"This is the format, right? And you just never know because it's a three-race season, and what you did for the first 30-something, when you get down to the end, just doesn't matter."
The rounds of the playoffs are quite distinct. The first round (Darlington, Richmond, Bristol) is three shorter tracks — Darlington is the biggest at 1.366 miles in length — at which NASCAR runs a high-horsepower, reduced downforce aerodynamic package.
The second round is considered maybe the most unpredictable, with a standard, 1.5-mile track at Las Vegas followed by a superspeedway (Talladega) and a road course (Charlotte).
The third round, in which it is harder to rely on playoff points earned during the season because the field gets cut from eight to four, includes two low-horsepower races (Texas and Kansas) followed by the shortest track on the circuit in Martinsville. The championship is then on the 1-mile track at Phoenix.
Hamlin said after his victory that he doesn’t fear that what happened to Harvick will happen to him.
"It's not a fear of performance. I can tell you that," Hamlin said. "On performance, we're good enough. We should be in the final four.
"It's the everything else — it's everything else that happens in the middle of a race that can take you out."
Points are reset following each round, though drivers carry over playoff points from past victories and the regular-season standings into all the rounds except the championship. Winning early in the playoffs can make a difference — albeit a little difference — in a later round.
Looking for more NASCAR content? Sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass!
But drivers indicated that it can be a little tough to build momentum during the playoffs.
Phoenix and Richmond are the most similar, but beyond that, there isn’t a lot that drivers will learn in this opening round that will correlate to tracks later in the playoffs.
"When we go and reset at Vegas ... all that’s going to matter about Darlington is what bonus points we scored there," Gustafson said. "There are lessons learned, but that’s every day. I think in general, when you’re talking about the playoffs, it’s very individual per race."
But this whole season has focused on Hamlin and Larson. Shouldn’t it be reasonable to envision the championship coming down to Hamlin and Larson?
"Oh my gosh, there's just so much racing left, who knows, right?" Hamlin said.
"We thought that 2020, when we won seven races, me and Harvick were locked. Harvick wasn't a lock, and it came down to the last lap at Martinsville, and it was going to be him or me."
Hamlin won’t take the role of championship favorite yet just because he won at Darlington. He hasn’t won enough this year to show that anyone should consider him to have a better chance than Larson, who led 10 more laps than Hamlin on Sunday.
"At one point we're thinking, ‘Well, they're just going to win every week,’" Hamlin said of Larson. "From their mindset, it's like, they got the speed, they got a great driver, so they probably should win every week.
"But you just never know what can happen. That's why they race these races."
For more up-to-date news on all things NASCAR, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!
Thinking out loud
Some might be critical of Kyle Busch's entering the garage at a somewhat high rate of speed following his accident at Darlington. While he probably needs to be reminded to enter the garage in a cautious fashion, there is no reason for any penalty.
Busch entered the garage where he was supposed to do so. There were some cones there, but there also was a lane open for cars to go to the garage.
Crew members are used to scrambling out of the way of cars, and whenever there is a caution, people on pit road should be aware that cars could be going in and out of that area.
The area was not packed with people, and there haven’t been as many people on pit road for most races as there were in pre-pandemic times. It’s understandable if Busch didn’t expect to see many people in the lane toward the garage.
NASCAR said it will visit the issue, as it does with many issues, in its review of the race early this week. Don’t expect any penalties from it.
Social spotlight
Stat of note
At a racing time (doesn’t include any red flags) of 4 hours, 10 minutes, 3 seconds, the Southern 500 was the longest race of the season.
They said it
"I don’t know what the math says. ... Run good or [expletive] get out." – Kyle Busch after an accident put him below the current playoff cutoff
Bob Pockrass has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s. He joined FOX Sports in 2019 following stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @bobpockrass. Looking for more NASCAR content? Sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass!