Daytona 500 tiers: Breaking down the full 40-car field

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — Who is going to win the Daytona 500?

The unpredictable nature of racing at Daytona International Speedway gives nearly every driver in the field a chance.

I tried to describe those chances here as I break down the 40-car Daytona 500 field as drivers prepare for 200 laps Sunday (2:30 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App). The order in the groups is by starting position.

Former Winners

Can these former Daytona 500 winners repeat?

Starting spot: 3. Joey Logano (Team Penske No. 22 Ford): All he’s been doing is winning. He won the 2022 season finale to capture the Cup championship. He won his qualifying race Thursday night, giving him momentum to kick off this season. He won the 2015 Daytona 500 and has four career superspeedway wins. It would be no surprise to see him earn career victory No. 32 on Sunday night.

6. Austin Cindric (Team Penske No. 2 Ford): Cindric pulled off the upset a year ago as a rookie in winning the Daytona 500. It would be an even bigger upset for him to go back-to-back for his first two career Cup wins — not because he doesn’t have the talent but the only driver to win back-to-back Daytona 500s in the last 13 years is Denny Hamlin. In fact, Hamlin is the only driver to have multiple Daytona 500 wins in the last 13 years. 

11. Michael McDowell (Front Row Motorsports No. 34 Ford): McDowell historically has been a strong superspeedway racer and his 2021 Daytona 500 victory (his only Cup win, which came in his 358th Cup start) proves that. He does have a new crew chief this year so whether they are in sync could be key.

13. Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford): In his final Cup season and his last Daytona 500, Harvick won’t feel guilty doing more taking than giving. He won this race in 2007, one of the biggest of his 60 career Cup victories. He has one top-10 in his last six superspeedway starts and only two top-10s in his last 10 Daytona starts.

18. Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota): With three Daytona 500 wins and five on the superspeedways, if he is near the lead at the end, he’ll have a chance. He already has defied the odds as he is the only driver to have won more than one Daytona 500 in the last 13 years. He hasn’t finished top-10 in his last three Daytona starts so maybe he is due again. What Hamlin does well is he can win when leading going into the final lap (as he did in 2019 and 2020) as well as when he’s not, as he was fourth with a lap to go before winning in 2016.

27. Austin Dillon (Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevrolet): Never count out the No. 3 at Daytona. Dillon won in 2018 and also won the most recent race at Daytona, winning a battle of attrition in August. He knows how to make moves in the draft — he was 12th with 10 laps to go in the 2018 Daytona 500.

39. Jimmie Johnson (Legacy Motor Club No. 84 Chevrolet): The two-time Daytona 500 winner (2006, 2013) hasn’t raced in Cup since the 2020 season finale. Even after 60 laps Thursday night, he said he wasn’t ready for the Daytona 500. But he felt after some practice Friday and Saturday, he should be. One advantage for Johnson: He isn’t running the full season so if he wins, he won’t take a playoff spot — which could be an incentive for a competitor to push Johnson instead of someone else.

One Spot Better?

Past Daytona 500 second-place finishers needing one more spot:

7. Ryan Blaney (Team Penske No. 12 Ford): Cindric blocked him on the final lap last year. Blaney surely hasn’t forgotten. Nor has he forgotten he finished second in 2017. Nor has he forgotten he finished second in 2020. Lessons have been learned and will be put to use Sunday night.

8. Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet): Elliott, who was second in the 2021 Daytona 500, won the most recent superspeedway race (at Talladega in October), and he seems confident in what moves will work as the Next Gen car enters its second season. Elliott also is tied with Michael McDowell for the longest active top-10 streak in the Daytona 500 — with two top-10s in the last two years.

15. Bubba Wallace (23XI Racing No. 23 Toyota): Wallace has two runner-up Daytona 500 finishes — in 2018 and 2022 — but his other Daytona 500s haven’t gone well (38th, 15th and 17th). Team co-owner Michael Jordan will be here watching, and Wallace would love nothing better than to get Jordan (in addition to himself) to victory lane at Daytona.

16. Martin Truex Jr. (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota): He once lost the Daytona 500 by 0.01 seconds to Denny Hamlin. That is a sign that it is fate — either that he will win it one day after such heartbreak or won’t. In 73 career superspeedway starts, he has no wins, three seconds, six top-5s and 16 top-10s. He has just three top-5 finishes in 35 Daytona starts. Then again, he won the opening two stages of the Daytona 500 before finishing 13th.

36. Kyle Busch (Richard Childress Racing No. 8 Chevrolet): Busch was stout in his duel before getting turned and now will have to come from the back in a backup car. That might not be as difficult as it seems and at least his tenure at RCR has started with him feeling the cars are fast.  Busch has led 324 laps in the Daytona 500, the most laps of any driver who hasn’t won the race. He was second in 2019.

Winners In Summer Race, Can Win 500?

These drivers (in addition to Blaney and Busch) have won the summer Cup race at Daytona, but still are looking for a 500 win.

4. Aric Almirola (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 10 Ford): He won his duel Thursday and is oozing with confidence as he knows how to get to victory lane at Daytona — he has won two of the qualifying races in his career as well as the 2017 summer race at Daytona. He nearly won the Daytona 500 in 2018 before he was spun by Austin Dillon while trying to hold the lead. 

10. Brad Keselowski (Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing No. 6 Ford): Keselowski didn’t make many friends last year with his aggressive pushing, which continued in his duel. Whether that comes back to haunt him remains to be seen. He won the 2016 summer race at Daytona. Riding a 62-race winless streak, Keselowski’s last Cup victory came at a superspeedway as he captured the win in October 2021 at Talladega.

21. William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet): Byron won a big late-model race earlier in the week at a short track near Daytona. Don’t count him out. He won the August 2020 race at Daytona and was second in the 2019 summer race. The Daytona 500 though hasn’t been kind, with finishes of 40th, 26th and 38th in his last three starts in the race.

25. Erik Jones (Legacy Motor Club No. 43 Chevrolet): Jones has a knack for winning at some of NASCAR’s most historic tracks, including a July 2018 victory in the Cup race at Daytona. Having a couple of teammates in this race could be big for help in the draft. He will have to overcome recent frustration with Daytona as he hasn’t had a top-10 there since the 2019 Daytona 500.

28. Justin Haley (Kaulig Racing No. 31 Chevrolet): Haley won the 2019 summer race on a pit strategy call as the rain began to fall. But if he wins it straight up, few would consider it a huge upset. He has finished in the top-15 in four of his last five superspeedway races.

31. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (JTG Daugherty Racing No. 47 Chevrolet): He’s a solid superspeedway racer — he won two superspeedway events in 2017, including the summer Daytona race — but still inconsistent. He doesn’t have a top-10 in his last 10 Daytona starts nor his last 10 superspeedway starts overall.

Ready To Pounce

Drivers who don’t fit in the above categories who have the best chance to win.

1. Alex Bowman (Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet): He hasn’t learned much about his car in the draft because it was trimmed out for single-car speed to win the pole. He’ll have to be a quick learner Sunday. He hasn’t finished top-20 in his last three Daytona 500s and just has one top-5 at superspeedways.

2. Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet): Larson has a fast car. Can he make the right moves in the draft? So far he has not been able to on the superspeedways, especially recently. He has only one top-5 finish on superspeedways, a fourth at Talladega in 2022. His best chance in the Daytona 500 came in 2017 when he ran out of gas while leading on the final lap.

5. Christopher Bell (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota): Bell didn’t show his complete hand Thursday at the end of his qualifying race, where maybe a more aggressive move would have resulted in the win. Daytona hasn’t been kind to him — no top-10s in six starts, including finishes of 32nd, 34th and 36th in his last three starts.

9. Chris Buescher (Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing No. 17 Ford): He is a strong superspeedway racer — he won a qualifying race a year ago and was in the mix Thursday night. He should be strong Sunday — he was third in the 2020 Daytona 500, one of his three career top-5s at superspeedways.

23. Ross Chastain (Trackhouse Racing No. 1 Chevrolet): Chastain is a Florida native and won at Talladega last spring, but whether that translates into Daytona 500 success is suspect. He has just one top-10 finish in his nine career Daytona starts with a best of seventh in the 2021 Daytona 500.

Daytona Not Their Jam

These drivers have strong resumes but Daytona hasn’t been their best Cup track.

24. Daniel Suarez (Trackhouse Racing No. 99 Chevrolet): Suarez knows Trackhouse will be his home for the next few years, and he knows he has a strong car. But his best finish in 11 starts at Daytona is 17th.

26. Tyler Reddick (23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota): He helped push his then-teammate Austin Dillon to the win at Daytona last August. Whether he can get a push from someone Sunday is debatable as his average finish last year on drafting tracks was 27th and he has only finished eight of his last 15 races at those tracks.

29. AJ Allmendinger (Kaulig Racing No. 16 Chevrolet): Allmendinger doesn’t love this style of racing, and this will be his first Daytona 500 since 2018. He has finished in the top-10 in his last four Cup starts at Daytona, but that was in 2017 and 2018.

30. Chase Briscoe (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford): Briscoe has just one top-5 at superspeedways (third in last year’s Daytona 500) and typically finishes somewhere 10th-20th at these tracks. 

Upset In The Making

These drivers winning would be classified as an upset.

12. Corey LaJoie (Spire Motorsports No. 7 Chevrolet): LaJoie is a good superspeedway racer and nearly won at Atlanta last year. But whether he gets any help late in the race remains to be seen.

14. Todd Gilliland (Front Row Motorsports No. 38 Ford): Gilliland made a great save late in his qualifying race Thursday. He has a fast car and was seventh at Talladega last fall. He was 33rd and 23rd in his two Daytona starts during his rookie season last year.

19. Harrison Burton (Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford): Burton was watching the Super Bowl when he saw a Daytona commercial with his car flipping. He hopes to keep all four wheels on the ground this year. He was 39th and 19th in his rookie season at Daytona.

20. Ryan Preece (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 41 Ford): Preece is back full-time racing in Cup but he will be more comfortable next week at Fontana than at the superspeedway. He did finish sixth and fourth in his last two Daytona starts.

32. B.J. McLeod (Live Fast Motorsports No. 78 Chevrolet): The team co-owner knows the key for him will be to stay out of trouble. 

35. Cody Ware (Rick Ware Racing No. 51 Ford): Ware is making his sixth start at Daytona. He was sixth in the battle of attrition last August. It was his only top-10 finish in his last 10 superspeedway starts.

37. Ty Dillon (Spire Motorsports No. 77 Chevrolet): It would be epic if 25 years after Dale Earnhardt won the 500 and Ty Dillon (grandson of Richard Childress) was among those celebrating in victory lane that Dillon could win the 500. Don’t totally count him out. He does have five top-10s at superspeedways.

The Rookies

These drivers are either rookies or in their first Daytona 500.

17. Zane Smith (Front Row Motorsports No. 36 Ford): Smith is making just his second Cup start in a third car for the organization. The 2022 truck series champion should relish the experience and learn the draft for when he becomes a full-time Cup driver. 

22. Noah Gragson (Legacy Motor Club No. 42 Chevrolet): Gragson is making his second Daytona 500 start as he begins his first full-time season in Cup. He was 31st in the 2022 Daytona 500.

33. Ty Gibbs (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 54 Toyota): Gibbs, the 2022 Xfinity Series champion, is making his first start in the Daytona 500. He did race at Daytona last August and was 13th. 

34. Conor Daly (The Money Team Racing No. 50 Chevrolet): Daly got lucky when the two cars he had to beat Thursday in order to make the Daytona 500 field ended up in a wreck. The IndyCar Series driver will need to find some speed to be able to keep up Sunday in the car co-owned by Floyd Mayweather.

38. Riley Herbst (Rick Ware Racing No. 15 Ford): Herbst is making his first Daytona 500 start — and his Cup debut — as he is behind the wheel for RWR. He has 109 career Xfinity Series starts.

The Wild Card

Travis Pastrana is a category all of himself.

40. Travis Pastrana (23XI Racing No. 67 Toyota): The extreme sports star has nothing to lose but wants to run a respectful race in his Cup debut. There will be plenty of eyes on him, and he knows how to put on a show.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass, and sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass.

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