Daytona 500: Ranking the Entire Field, From Casey Mears to Chase Elliott

Daytona International Speedway (Daytona Beach, Fla.) — From 14 drivers with no career wins to a driver with 83 career wins, from drivers ages 19 to 50, from a driver with three career starts to a driver with 750 — the field for the Daytona 500 (Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET on FOX) is officially set and features much variety. 

Here’s a look at how I rank the 41 drivers as far as chances of winning the Daytona 500. I based this on how well they run in the 500, at Daytona in general, at the similar-style drafting tracks (Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta) as well as some gut feeling:

41. Casey Mears (Starting: 17th)
Garage 66 No. 66 Ford

This will be the 495th Cup start for Mears, who is looking to get to 500 starts in Cup. Driving for team owner Carl Long, Mears is making his 14th Daytona 500 start but his first since 2019. The team had to fix a significant amount of damage from the qualifying race Thursday night.

40. B.J. McLeod (Starting: 38th)
Live Fast Motorsports No. 78 Chevrolet

Getting in after the Anthony Alfredo disqualification for failing tech after the qualifying race, McLeod will relish the second chance. McLeod, who owns his car, is making his 150th career start. Both of his two career top 10s came at Daytona.

39. Cody Ware (Starting: 33rd)
Rick Ware Racing No. 51 Chevrolet

Ware is trying to rebound after a year when he finished 36th in the standings (by far the worst among the charter teams). He's also trying to get adjusted as the team has switched from Ford to Chevrolet. But what does the Rick Ware Racing driver look forward to? Both of his two top-10 career Cup finishes have come at Daytona. 

38. Riley Herbst (Starting: 28th)
23XI Racing No. 35 Toyota

Herbst was 35th in the standings last year as a Cup rookie at 23XI Racing. So he needs to forget about last year, and what better place than Daytona? In his Cup debut in 2023, he placed 10th in the Daytona 500. 

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37. Noah Gragson (Starting: 25th)
Front Row Motorsports No. 4 Ford

Gragson has one top-20 finish (ninth in 2024) in his four Daytona 500 starts and all three of his Cup top-5 finishes have come on the drafting tracks. But he needs to get in sync with new crew chief Grant Hutchens, and a mistake forgetting a new rule that resulted in his qualifying time being disallowed shows there’s more work to do in a pivotal year for Front Row Motorsports.

36. Josh Berry (Starting: 14th)
Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford

Berry isn’t known as a stout superspeedway racer but did finish ninth in his last trip to Daytona last August. The good thing for Berry is that as a Team Penske affiliate, he has plenty (and typically courteous) teammates if he gets up front.

35. Ty Dillon (Starting: 34th)
Kaulig Racing No. 10 Chevrolet

Dillon was sixth in the 2019 Daytona 500, and he has a tendency to finish the Daytona 500, which is saying something. But Dillon is likely looking beyond today as he looks to improve on a season where he finished 33rd in the standings driving for Kaulig Racing.

34. Cole Custer (Starting: 23rd)
Haas Factory Team No. 41 Chevrolet

Custer was fourth in his last trip to Daytona but still seeks his first top 10 in the Daytona 500. He’s making his fifth start, and his first in a Chevrolet as Haas Factory Team has moved from Ford to Chevy.

33. AJ Allmendinger (Starting: 35th)
Kaulig Racing No. 16 Chevrolet

Allmendinger isn’t the biggest fan of superspeedway racing, but he does have five top-10s, including two thirds in 12 Daytona 500 starts. That makes him a good sleeper pick. Maybe more significant, he has four top-10s in his last five Daytona 500 starts. What’s to be seen is, because Kaulig Racing has no manufacturer support as it has moved to Dodge and Ram for trucks, will no one help Allmendinger or will anyone help him because there are no allegiances?

32. Connor Zilisch (Starting: 32nd)
Trackhouse Racing No. 88 Chevrolet

Zilisch is one of the most heralded rookies to burst on the scene, but not much is expected from him in his Daytona 500 debut (only Zilisch and Corey Heim are making their Daytona 500 debuts). Zilisch technically won the O’Reilly race at Daytona last summer, but it was Parker Kligerman who crossed the finish line first in a relief role where he replaced Zilisch early in the race. This will be the fourth career start for the Trackhouse driver.

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31. Shane van Gisbergen (Starting: 13th)
Trackhouse Racing No. 97 Chevrolet

SVG placed 33rd in his first Daytona 500 and still seeks his first top-10 on a drafting track. The road-course ace, SVG still might find it hard to find a drafting partner to get his Trackhouse car out front. While SVG’s number changed from 88 to 97, his team is relatively the same for 2026.

30. Justin Allgaier (Starting: 40th)
JR Motorsports No. 40 Chevrolet

Allgaier will make his fourth Daytona 500 start and his second consecutive for JR Motorsports, an O’Reilly Series team that made its Cup debut a year ago. Allgaier will have plenty of fans as the 2024 O’Reilly champion will have team boss Dale Earnhardt Jr. rooting him on to what he hopes is even a better finish than an exhilarating ninth in the race a year ago.

29. Corey Heim (Starting: 29th)
23XI Racing No. 67 Toyota

Heim is making his Daytona 500 debut thanks to a great qualifying run that put him fifth overall in single-car qualifying Wednesday. The 2025 truck champion won 12 races last year, he is making his eighth Cup start. The 23XI Racing driver was sixth at Bristol last September and will make 12 Cup starts this year.

28. Erik Jones (Starting: 24th)
Legacy Motor Club No. 43 Toyota

Jones has won at Daytona — his first career Cup victory came in the July 2018 races. But he has only two top-10 finishes in the Daytona 500 and has five of these races where he’s wrecked out. But if he gets to the finish, the Legacy driver could be a threat. This will be the first race for Jones and new crew chief Justin Alexander, who came from Richard Childress Racing.

27. Todd Gilliland (Starting: 18th)
Front Row Motorsports No. 34 Ford

Gilliland has failed to finish three of his four Daytona 500 starts because of accidents, but he is another one of those drivers that if he is around at the finish, you can’t rule him out. The Front Row Motorsports driver needs to rebound from a little bit of a disappointing year in which he finished 27th in the standings.

26. John Hunter Nemechek (Starting: 11th)
Legacy Motor Club No. 42 Toyota

Nemechek finished fifth last year in the Daytona 500 and his 7.67 average finish in three Daytona 500 starts ranks second all-time among drivers with more than two starts. But is he a threat to win? The Legacy driver still seeks his first Cup victory.

25. Daniel Suarez (Starting: 15th)
Spire Motorsports No. 7 Chevrolet

Suarez was the only Cup driver to move from one Cup team to another Cup team in the offseason as he and Trackhouse parted ways before he landed at Spire, replacing Justin Haley (who is racing trucks this year). He has made eight Daytona 500 starts with one top-10 and five races where he wrecked out. Suarez won’t take the green in 15th — he’ll drop to the rear of the field for the race because of a backup car needed following a crash in his qualifying race Thursday night.

[DAYTONA 500 LINEUP: See the Starting Positions for Every Driver]

24. Jimmie Johnson (Starting: 31st)
Legacy Motor Club No. 84 Toyota

The seven-time Cup champion and two-time Daytona 500 winner is back for a fourth consecutive Daytona 500 after retiring from full-time Cup racing in 2020. Can he win? Johnson, who has 83 wins, wouldn’t have 84 as his number if the Legacy driver/owner didn’t think he could reach it. Johnson, by the way, is racing just for the result. Because he took the open exemption provisional that guaranteed him a spot in the race, he won’t get any purse money for competing.

23. Zane Smith (Starting: 30th)
Front Row Motorsports No. 38 Ford

Smith is making his fourth start in the Daytona 500 and still seeks his first top-10 finish. But he has some stability for the next two years, having had his Front Row Motorsports option picked up for two more years after last season. 

22. Carson Hocevar (Starting: 6th)
Spire Motorsports No. 77 Chevrolet

Hocevar and the Daytona 500 haven’t been friends as he’s finished 40th and 30th in his two starts. But he led all drivers with four top-10s in the six drafting races (Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta) last year and finished second in his qualifying race Thursday night. Probably a go big or go home day for Hocevar, who recently signed a contract extension with Spire that will keep him there into the next decade. Hocevar will be ready to race — he is running each of the three national series events this weekend at Daytona.

21. Ty Gibbs (Starting: 20th)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 54 Toyota

Gibbs enters his fourth full-time Cup season, and he needs to win a Cup race. The Daytona 500 would be a great place to start. He has finished twice in the summer Daytona race but the Joe Gibbs Racing driver still seeks his first top-10 in the 500.

20. Alex Bowman (Starting: 21st)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet

Bowman has three Daytona 500 poles, and he is now looking for the finishes. He was second in the 2024 Daytona 500 and his "streak" of three consecutive Daytona 500 top-10s is the longest in the series. Most of Byron’s crew that works on the car during the race weekend is new to his team this year.

19. Ryan Preece (Starting:19th)
RFK Racing No. 60 Ford

The winner of the 2026 season-opening exhibition Clash, Preece seeks his first Cup win in his 224th career Cup start. The RFK Racing driver also has already won this week in a modified race at New Smyrna Speedway. But to win at Daytona — where Preece has flipped twice in recent years — could be a tall order.

18. Austin Dillon (Starting: 7th)
Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevrolet

Dillon won the 2018 Daytona 500 but he hasn’t finished better than 23rd in the last four Daytona 500s. He loves this place and has full confidence that if he is up front, he can put the iconic Richard Childress Racing No. 3 into Victory Lane.

17. Ross Chastain (Starting: 37th)
Trackhouse Racing No. 1 Chevrolet

Chastain seeks his first top-five at Daytona in any Cup race and has only one top-10 finish in the last 10 drafting track races. The Trackhouse driver is also working with new crew chief Brandon McSwain, a former engineer for William Byron. Chastain will be in a backup car after a crash in his qualifying race.

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16. Tyler Reddick (Starting: 26th)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota

Reddick finished second in the Daytona 500 last year — so close and yet so far in what ended up as a winless season. It was his first winless season since 2021 — for the 23XI Racing star. He has failed to finish five of his seven Daytona 500s because of an accident.

15. Brad Keselowski (Starting: 9th)
RFK Racing No. 6 Ford

Keselowski wasn’t sure he would be able to run this race after shearing his right femur two months ago while on a ski trip. He did a 50-lap test earlier this week at Charlotte to make sure he’s ready, to try to earn his first Daytona 500 win in his 17th Daytona 500 start. Hopefully, he doesn’t remember that he has failed to finish six of the last nine Daytona 500s because of an accident.

14. Kyle Larson (Starting: 8th)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet

Larson won his second Cup title in November but don’t think of him as someone bringing momentum. Daytona is the only track where he has more than two starts without a top-five finish (he’s 0-for-23). He’s also on the longest winless streak of his Hendrick career at 24 races. But Larson has no reason to worry. He just signed a five-year contract extension through 2031.

13. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Starting: 16th)
Hyak Motorsports No. 47 Chevrolet

Stenhouse won the 2023 Daytona 500 — the only 500 he has finished in the last five. All four of his Cup wins have come on drafting tracks, so he’s one who could be a factor.

12. Chris Buescher (Starting: 41st)
RFK Racing No. 17 Ford

Buescher won the summer race at Daytona in 2023 and has finished top-10 in four of his 10 Daytona 500 starts. He went winless in 2025 for the first time since 2021, and the RFK Racing driver is seen to be primed for a comeback season. But it didn’t start well. He wrecked Thursday and will take the green at the rear of the field in a backup car.

11. Austin Cindric (Starting: 36th)
Team Penske No. 2 Ford

Cindric won the 2022 Daytona 500 as a full-time rookie, one of his two top-10 finishes in five Daytona 500 starts. He won at Talladega last year, solidifying himself as a threat on superspeedway, drafting tracks.

10. Christopher Bell (Starting: 12th)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota

Bell makes his seventh Daytona 500 start, and he hopes he can be near/at the front as he finished third in 2023 and 2024. He has a love-hate relationship with Daytona (as do many others), as he crashed out of this race a year ago and then went to the next drafting track, Atlanta, and won the following week.

9. Ryan Blaney (Starting: 5th)
Team Penske No. 12 Ford

Blaney has led in eight of the last nine Daytona 500s, has two runner-up finishes in the Daytona 500 and has five drafting-track victories — but is winless in 11 Daytona 500 starts. So he’s one of those drivers, along with Keselowski and Busch and Elliott and Larson, where winning the Daytona 500 would pretty much round out his NASCAR resume.

8. Michael McDowell (Starting: 10th)
Spire Motorsports No. 71 Chevrolet

McDowell won the 2021 Daytona 500 and has five top-10 finishes in 14 Daytona 500 starts. He knows how to be fast on a drafting track as he has won the pole for six of the last 11 races on those tracks. But he has just one top-10 finish in his last 14 drafting-track races.

7. Bubba Wallace (Starting: 27th)
23XI Racing No. 23 Toyota

Wallace has finished second in two Daytona 500s (he lost in 2022 by 0.036 seconds in overtime), so he just needs that one final spot. His six top-10 finishes at Daytona are his most at any track. He also knows how to win a crown jewel as he won the 2025 Brickyard 400.

6. Joey Logano (Starting: 3rd)
Team Penske No. 22 Ford

The three-time Cup champion won the 2015 Daytona 500, so you can look at him as a former winner or a driver with a Daytona 500 winless streak of 10 races. Of course, he’ll look at his most recent streak — he won his qualifying race Thursday night. So maybe he can forget that he failed to finish four of the last six Daytona 500s. He’s still a great superspeedway racer and not afraid to throw a critical block.

5. Denny Hamlin (Starting: 22nd)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota

Hamlin has won three of the last 10 Daytona 500s and nearly won a fourth last year as he was battling for the lead before a crash on the final lap. But he has no top-10s in his last nine Daytona starts and has a best finish of 17th in the Next Gen era in the Daytona 500. His 496 laps led in the Daytona 500 ranks fifth all-time.

4. William Byron (Starting: 39th)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet

Byron is going for a historic third consecutive Daytona 500 victory as no driver has won back-to-back-to-back. The 28-year-old is the youngest driver with multiple Daytona 500 victories. So he has the pedigree but probably not the odds.

[SHOT AT HISTORY: Can William Byron 3-Peat at Daytona 500?]

3. Kyle Busch (Starting: 1st)
Richard Childress Racing No. 8 Chevrolet

Busch is on the pole for the Daytona 500 as he seeks his first Daytona 500 victory. No driver has won his first Daytona 500 after his 20th start — and this will be Busch’s 21st Daytona 500 start. And no driver since Dale Jarrett in 2000 has won from the pole. His 342 laps led in the Daytona 500 are the most for any driver who has never won the race.

2. Chase Briscoe (Starting: 2nd)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota

Briscoe is making his second consecutive front row start for the Daytona 500. He was third in the Daytona in 2022 and fourth last year. He also won the previous drafting-track race at Talladega in October. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be a favorite.

1. Chase Elliott (Starting: 4th)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet

Elliott has come close to winning the Daytona 500. He ran out of gas while leading in 2017 with two laps to go. He finished second in the 2021 Daytona 500. He also has finished top-10 in three of the last four drafting-track races, including a win at Atlanta in June. But he brings good mojo into the Daytona 500 as he won his qualifying race Thursday.