7 Come 11

There’s an old phrase in gambling: “7 come 11,” which craps players use when they’re looking for those lucky numbers on their first roll. I think that could very well apply to what’s going on in the Chase for the Sprint Cup this year.

This is the 7th Chase. 7 come 11. Sunday was Denny Hamlin’s 7th win of the season, yes, in the No. 11. 7 come 11. With all the risks and gambles made on track and in the pits, I really think some gambling analogies may apply.

Think back to the beginning of the season, when a lot of people were predicting Hamlin would unseat Jimmie Johnson as our champion. Both drivers entered this Chase with the most wins. Denny did get off to a slow start, but never fell very far back. Certainly now after Sunday’s win, Denny is right there and breathing down Jimmie’s neck.

I actually thought some of the preseason hype on the No. 11 was a stretch. During the summer months they had some mechanical issues. As I mentioned before the Chase started, that was my concern once they got into the Chase, that those issues might return and bite the No. 11. So far, they have been able to avoid all those gremlins.

Like I keep saying, to beat that No. 48, you have to have a fast race car. Well, that No. 11 team led by crew chief Mike Ford certainly has given that to Denny. In the past, Jimmie’s always had a fast enough race car to make up for problems on pit road or in the race. This year it seems it’s the No. 11 that has that magic touch. That ol’ Toyota of Denny’s has been showing a lot of steam and been pretty darn good wherever it’s been.

Going into the Martinsville weekend, Denny clearly was the favorite. When they took the pole position it sent a clear signal to the No. 48 that the No. 11 was coming. Actually it’s not just the No. 11, because Sunday you saw all three Joe Gibbs Racing cars finish in the top 10. That’s pretty impressive. In all fairness, you had three Hendrick Motorsports cars in the top 10 as well, so those two organizations are putting up some serious numbers. You also saw Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick, out of the Richard Childress Racing camp, had fast cars Sunday.

You just know this weekend at Talladega is a crap shoot. The Gibbs, Childress, Hendrick and Penske cars always are fast on the superspeedways. Someone coined it the "Lottery 500" and I like that. It pretty much is exactly that. You just spin the wheel and hope your number doesn’t pop up. That place, at those speeds, is definitely a crap shoot.

Back to Sunday for a minute: We saw some pretty intense racing at Martinsville. I love how drivers think. The Kurt Busch/Jeff Gordon incident was a classic example. Kurt said through the years — not that day, but through the years — Jeff Gordon always had a thing about the No. 2 car. What Jeff did to Kurt on Sunday rubbed him the wrong way and Kurt paid him back — in spades.

I have to say I was really concerned there near the end of the race about Jimmie Johnson when he was racing Kyle Busch. Jimmie was taking a lot of chances. He cut Kyle off and really wasn’t giving Kyle a lot of racing room. I was thinking to myself that the last thing Jimmie needed to do was to give Kyle any opportunity to take him out of the race. What if Kyle had turned Jimmie around and put him in the fence? Just think about the point ramifications on that one.

You also saw the two RCR teammates get upset with each other. Harvick thought Burton was cutting him off and not giving him enough racing room either. That’s just typical Martinsville, actually. Just not a lot you can do about it.

Earlier in the week Richard Childress made the decision to swap the pit crews of the No. 29 and the No. 33. I thought that was a great call. Kevin is right there at the front and has a real shot to bring home the championship. I like the call Richard made by strengthening the No. 29 car at this time. You saw it pay off Sunday when Harvick had some really good stops. So I applaud Richard for making that call and for committing to Kevin any and all resources he might need.

It’s not just for the front runners. Right now is the time to make changes and try to get some momentum for 2011. Look at Kasey Kahne moving on over to Red Bull. That gives that bunch races in 2010 to work together. Their learning curve just got a huge boost.

I am a big believer that now is the time. What have you got to lose? It doesn’t matter if you change drivers or crew chiefs or shake up your pit crew — do it now and you will hopefully learn some things that will pay off when we get to 2011.

It was nice to see Dale Earnhardt Jr. up front Sunday. He led a good part of the race. Did you see the fans in the stands? They were going nuts. With Junior leading, well, all of a sudden everything was right with the racing world. Unfortunately one of the changes they made on a pit stop didn’t work. The car went backwards and ruined his otherwise great day.

What was also fun to watch Sunday was Mark Martin roar through the field with a beat-up race car. On a short track like Martinsville you don’t have to worry about your aerodynamics. You just have to have a good-handling car and an aggressive driver. They had that in the No. 5 car, which raced to a second-place finish. To look at it, you would have thought that old heap was going to fall apart any minute.

That was an impressive run for Mark. I always have liked his crew chief Alan Gustafason. I think he’s a really sharp guy. Mark sure is lucky to have him. There were others Sunday who also had great runs. Joey Logano finished in the top 10. Brad Kesolowski got his first top 10 finish for that team. It comes on the heels of his impressive win Saturday at St. Louis in the Nationwide race.

So like I said, this weekend is the Lottery 500 in Talladega. It really isn’t hard to predict what is going to happen. We all know there is going to be a big wreck. If you are in the race, you just pray you are nowhere near it when it happens. You hope it happens way up ahead of you or way behind you.

We saw it in the spring and we will see it again Sunday: teamwork. Teammates might very well hook up and head to the back to stay out of the eye of the storm. That works sometimes, but I always am concerned about that strategy. When you need to get up there at the end of the day, sometimes the car doesn’t run right or handle right in all that traffic.

Regardless, Sunday will be interesting. I am curious to see how the guys play it. Some are going to try to get up front and keep the pack behind them. Others are going to fall to the rear and avoid trouble by not getting caught up in someone else’s mistake.

One of those strategies will work, but honestly I am not sure which one. One thing I know for sure, you do not want to be in the eye of the storm because that’s where all the turbulence is.