World Series odds Game 5: Why you should bet on an Astros comeback
By Dave Sharapan
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
Well, it only took the Series getting to Game 5 (8 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX) to get the "Houston, we have a problem" line into the column — which we'll get to in a minute.
Here's what you need to know about all the World Series odds for Game 5 between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves, from the lines to my picks (with all odds via FOX Bet).
Run line: Astros -1 (Astros favored to win by more than 1 run; if the Astros win by 1 run, the bet is a "Push"; if the Braves win by any margin, they cover)
Moneyline: Astros -120 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.33 total); Braves +100 underdogs to win outright (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Total scoring over/under: 8.5 runs scored by both teams combined
Between finally having the losing side for the first time in Game 4 and trying to write this column on an NFL Sunday and it being Halloween, I've got my own problems trying to make sense of the World Series and what to bet on tonight. I'm going to come strong here with a Snickers and leave the candy corn at the bottom of the bag.
To help you make the most of your World Series Game 5 bets, the FOX Sports gambling team asked me five questions about Sunday night's matchup.
I was happy to oblige. Let's get to the bets!
1. Houston, we have a problem. (Sorry; we'd been trying not to say it, but it was bound to happen.) Seriously, though, the Braves are now one win away from ending this whole shindig earlier than we'd like. Do they get it done in Game 5? Who you got?
Back in 1997, Biggie, aka The Notorious BIG, released the infamous "Mo' Money, Mo' Problems" song.
Well, that applies for the Astros with "more runners on base, more problems." Houston was 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position last night and stranded 11 runners overall. Those are not the kind of numbers you want to see when you have a ticket on the Astros and the over.
The Braves' arm barn guys have been nothing short of amazing all postseason, and yes, they are one win away from poppin' bottles. I think we get to keep said bottles on ice in the ATL. Houston finds a way to get it done so we get at least one more game of baseball, bruh!
PICK: Astros to win outright (-120 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
2. We have a bartending friend who's been eyeballing "Money Line & Total Runs" props all series long. If he likes the Braves and the Over tonight, for example, he's getting +295. If you felt the same, would you take that same-game parlay, or would you make the two bets individually, and why?
The bartending friend you are referring to has been hot, and he is strong in his conviction as well his choice of top shelf libations. If you like the good stuff, you should stick to what you know, but work out the price to make sure you are getting the good stuff.
If you do a parlay with the Braves +105 and over 8.5 -115, that works out to +269. The same game parlay is +295. I am no bartender nor a math expert, but I know that +295 is higher than +269.
Having been in the book at the counter for decades, I said that I felt like a bartender, serving up straight bets and parlays instead of beers and shots, but you get the drift.
Write the bet, and never judge another person's drink. If you want a double, go for it. I'll be at the other end of the bar, on the other side of both of those.
3. The "Race to 3 Runs" wager was one of the most fun bets we've made this month. Let's do it again tonight. Astros (-150) or Braves (+110)?
The "Race to 3 Runs" has become a thing, and, man, it is a fun bet. In this series, instead of "The Fast and the Furious," it's been more like "Driving Miss Daisy"!
Last night, we got all the way to the seventh and needed BOTH Swanson and Soler to go turbo with solo bombs to get there. Hell, I am not sure the Astros can even get three runs in a game at this point, but if there ever was a game they will, it has to be tonight, doesn't it? Wait, you asked me, not the other way around.
Yes, let's do it again, and let's take the Astros -150 in their last game with first ups of the 2021 World Series. We got one in the first inning yesterday and stalled out. Today, it's another "Yerfy," which is an industry term for YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) and a Houston 3 like James Harden used to do in a Rockets uni before he became a Net.
PICK: Astros to be the first team to score 3 runs (-150 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $16.67 total)
4. With two low-scoring games in a row, the under has now cashed three out of four games in this series — and the other result was a push. Are we finally getting an over tonight, or should we roll with the trend?
If you haven't heard me say it before, I will say it again here: The trends are your friends until they are not.
I am not a big fan of blindly following trends, but I do think you have to at least respect them. Not to mention, how many times can you bet over and watch the runners stand on the bases and never move?
I have been saying I think both teams will hit and both teams will score runs in both games in Atlanta, and I have been dead wrong. I have seen enough. They finally got me to turn to the dark side.
The book doesn't panic and just keeps hanging up the same number in 8.5. Will I get got tonight? Maybe. It could be a trick, but I am goin' for the good stuff and looking for a treat. Under, for all of it.
PICK: Under 8.5 runs scored by both teams combined (-105 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $19.50 total)
5. Last but not least, this might be our last gambling opportunity of the 2021 MLB season. If so, and if I haven't placed a wager yet but finally want to jump in the pool, what's a good bet that will keep me engaged but isn't necessarily a massive longshot I have little chance of winning?
Well, we have certainly had some fun bets this series that have hit, including the Braves to make an error +155 last night! There was only one, it took a long time to get there, but we got to the window.
I don't want this to be the last gambling opportunity of the 2021 MLB season, and if Houston wins, it won't be. So, if you think we can win one game tonight, I think we can bet Houston to win the Series at +400. That will look like a very good price and give us more opportunities if we can get this thing to Tuesday.
If you think the Bra-vos close it out tonight, take a shot on the MVP bet with Freddie, Eddie, Ozzie or Austin. It's not exactly Ronnie, Bobby, Ricky or Mike, but it could be "Word to the Mutha!"
PICK if you think Astros win Game 5: Astros to win the World Series (+400 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $50 total)
PICK if you think the Braves win Game 5: Freddie Freeman (+750; bet $10 to win $85 total), Eddie Rosario (+800; bet $10 to win $90 total), Austin Riley (+800; bet $10 to win $90 total) or Ozzie Albies (+1100; bet $10 to win $120 total) to win World Series MVP
Dave Sharapan is a longtime oddsmaker who spent 20-plus years in sportsbooks around the world. He is a current sports betting analyst, writer and sports bettor himself with Pittsburgh roots who lives in Las Vegas and has more hats than he possibly can count. You can follow him on Twitter @SportsbkConsig.
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