Which team has MLB's best lineup? Astros, Braves among top candidates
The 2023 World Baseball Classic featured many of the top hitters in the world, the majority of which will return to their full-time jobs in the coming week: tearing up the major leagues.
We asked the FOX Sports MLB writers to select their favorite lineup, and responses varied. Interestingly, no one chose the club that generated the most runs and highest OPS in 2022 (the Dodgers).
Here are five different cases for the best lineup in baseball.
FanGraphs has the Braves projected to record the most runs per game in 2023, and all it really takes is a healthy, MVP-level Ronald Acuña Jr. to imagine it will come true. Nearly two years removed from his torn ACL that required surgery, Acuña is also projected by FanGraphs to lead the league in steals with 35.
But really, a full-bore Acuña should be able to swipe around 40 bags. And right behind him in that category will be 22-year-old Michael Harris II, who stole 20 bases out of 22 attempts in his rookie season. This year, Harris should only be more motivated to swipe bags under MLB’s new pitch-timer rules.
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Ben Verlander and Alex Curry break down everything you need to know about the Atlanta Braves heading into the season
Atlanta is still expected to feature solid production from Travis d’Arnaud and newly acquired catcher Sean Murphy, and the Braves are hoping Matt Olson can repeat or improve upon his 34-homer debut season with the team. But it will be interesting to see how much the loss of Dansby Swanson will impact the productivity of this lineup. With rookie shortstop Vaughn Grissom surprisingly optioned to begin the season, veteran Orlando Arcia will be tasked with replicating his career-high 104+ OPS from last season to make up for the All-Star level production the Braves had gotten from Swanson the past few years.
In all, this lineup is well-rounded and will contribute nightly to their FanGraphs-projected most wins (93) in MLB. Murphy, Olson, Harris and Acuña are among the best players in the game at their respective positions. And that’s not even including Ozzie Albies, who is still projected to turn in an above-average year with a ceiling for much more, vis-a-vis his 30-homer power during the Braves’ 2021 world championship season.
Atlanta’s biggest lineup weakness will come from left field, where the combination of Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario suggests that fans should take their bathroom breaks during those at-bats. Even so, the bigger takeaway here is that the Braves lineup is not reliant on one big bat (looking at you, Yankees and Aaron Judge) to be successful. Their solid, nearly elite, assets will be enough for the club to flash one of the best, if not the best, lineups in the league.
This is a pretty easy case to make: The Astros rode one of the sport’s best lineups to a World Series win in 2022, and they arguably improved their starting nine over the offseason. Gone are catcher Christian Vázquez and first baseman Yuli Gurriel, and in is fellow first baseman José Abreu and designated hitter Michael Brantley, who missed most of last season.
Abreu will probably slot in fifth in a stacked lineup, between Yordan Álvarez and Kyle Tucker. Houston’s top seven, from three-time batting champ José Altuve down to reigning World Series MVP Jeremy Peña, is pretty clearly the class of the league. Likely No. 8 hitter Chas McCormick is a totally competent batsman. Likely No. 9 hitter Martín Maldonado isn’t, exactly, but the rest of Houston’s hitters are good enough that it should not matter.
The Astros’ order is different than their peers, both in terms of its quality and its consistency. Dusty Baker is the rare modern manager who prefers to keep his lineups the same from night to night. Houston’s is not an especially stacked bench, but it’s not like Baker is going to turn to his reserves regularly. The starters are the starters, as long as they are healthy.
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Ben Verlander and Alex Curry rank MLB's outfielders, and New York Yankees' Aaron Judge and Houston Astros' Yordan Alvarez headline The Elite Tier.
Each member of the top six has received MVP votes in years past. Most of them regularly receive votes. And both Josés, Altuve and Abreu, have won the award. Who will be the Astros’ most valuable hitter in 2023? It’s a challenge to say. Álvarez is the best bet, perhaps closely followed by Tucker. It’s worth noting that Baker planned to bat neither within the top third of his lineup, where they would each bat on essentially every other MLB roster, before Altuve suffered a broken thumb in the WBC.
That’s how good this lineup is. There is only one weak link, Maldonado, and if he proves to be enough of one, in-house replacements could be ready to replace him. The Astros have three high-level catching prospects: Cesar Salazar, Korey Lee and Yainer Díaz, one of whom will probably break camp as the backup. And, outside of Maldonado, this lineup is littered with top-end talent, with regular All-Stars and frequent MVP candidates. The 2023 Astros’ lineup looks like the best bet to be the sport’s best.
Don’t think too hard. Don’t hurt your brain. This is all much simpler than you realize. The best lineup in baseball belongs to the team with the two best players in the world and a third guy who, the last time he was healthy, finished top 10 in MVP voting with a 150 OPS+.
Let’s begin with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, two baseball players you’ll tell your grandchildren about who also happen to be on the same team. Entering its sixth and potentially final year, the Trout/Ohtani era in Anaheim has been defined by awe-inspiring highlights, untimely injuries, a lack of depth and annual disappointment in the win/loss column.
The two superstars have never truly been healthy for a full season at the same time over the past half decade. But trying to predict injuries is like trying to capture the wind; the roster on Opening Day is the roster I’m evaluating. I have no strained-oblique crystal ball. Besides, this organization is due a bit of good injury fortune. If Trout and Ohtani both post at least 500 plate appearances (something they’ve never done in the same season), they are the best offensive duo in baseball, hands down. Go look at the stats.
Admittedly, Anthony Rendon is a slightly different story. When you google his name, the first response that comes up is, "Does Anthony Rendon still play?" Which is fair, considering that Rendon has missed massive chunks of time over the last two seasons with a litany of injuries. But he doesn’t turn 33 until June — he’s only a few months older than Marcus Semien, who signed a seven-year contract last offseason — and Rendon was lethal when last healthy in 2020. Maybe I’m living on the moon, but I’ll take the general over on Rendon as he enters this season with a clean bill of health.
Now, you don’t have to write about ball for a living to understand that Trout, Ohtani and a healthy Rendon is one hell of an offensive trio, but I’m bullish on this group of hitters because the first time since the Obama administration, the Angels have something resembling actual lineup depth.
Taylor Ward broke out in a big way last year with a 135 OPS+. New additions Hunter Renfroe (126 OPS+ last year), Gio Urshela (121 OPS+) and Brandon Drury (122 OPS+) are all legitimate above-average hitters, something Anaheim has lacked alongside its two superstars. Rookie backstop Logan O’Hoppe was the prize return for Brandon Marsh and could immediately become one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball. I’m low on Jared Walsh, but he was an All-Star in 2021, for what it's worth. Even Luis Rengifo was a 103 OPS+ guy last year!
Look, friends, is this the most dependable lineup in baseball? No way. The deepest? Despite the reinforcements, still no. But it has something no other team has: the two best players in baseball. And finally, maybe, possibly, Trout and Ohtani won’t be surrounded by a horde of punchless schlubs.
On Opening Day, the Padres will in all likelihood roll out Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto and Manny Machado as the first three batters of their 2023 season. This is a healthy upgrade over the Austin Nola, Machado, and Jake Cronenworth trio that led off in last year's opener. This wonderful new reality will likely slide Cronenworth — an All-Star in each of the past two seasons — down the order to fourth or fifth, and lean less heavily on the streaky offensive production of talented but inconsistent hitters like Trent Grisham and Ha-Seong Kim.
The Padres will now start every game with three different flavors of offensive force: a high-contact doubles machine in Bogaerts, an OBP savant with thunderous raw power in Soto and an all-around masher at the peak of his powers in Machado. It will be an outrageous challenge for any opposing pitcher to start a game, let alone deal with a second or third time later on.
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Veteran sluggers Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz join the Padres party coming off vastly different seasons. Carpenter looked rejuvenated with the Yankees to a borderline unfathomable degree (is a 1.138 OPS good?), while Cruz seemed to finally start showing his age — the dude turns 43 in July! — with a .651 OPS for the lowly Nationals. It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from either of them, but even one of them remaining in (or returning to) middle-of-the-order form would only make this lineup that more terrifying once you get past the superstars at the top.
Those will be the main characters leading the offensive charge for the Padres … for a few weeks, anyway. On April 20, everything will change. Fernando Tatís Jr. will return from suspension and this superpowered lineup will somehow be amplified even further by one of the most electric talents in the entire sport. All the drama surrounding Tatís over the past 12 months — though entirely deserved and frustratingly self-inflicted — has made his tremendous on-field performance feel like a distant memory. Chances are, he’ll remind us rather quickly how special he is once he returns.
You don’t need to know what his stats are to understand how good Tatís is when you watch him play, but the sheer level of production from his first three seasons was almost lost in the beautiful chaos of actually watching him play. It’s not just about having a uniquely fun talent back on the field — if Tatís returns to his pre-injury and pre-suspension form, we’re talking about adding a top-five hitter to a lineup that might be tops in baseball even without him.
From 2019-2021, Tatís’ 153 wRC+ ranked second in MLB to only Soto. If Tatís can return to anywhere close to as good as he was before his year off, the top four of this Padres lineup might not only be baseball's best in 2023, but one of the best we’ve seen in a long time. As manager Bob Melvin said earlier in spring training, "We'll figure it out as we go along. But really, once Fernando comes back, you could pick 1-2-3-4 out of a hat."
The Blue Jays finished last season with the second-best wRC+ in baseball behind only the Dodgers, who lost Trea Turner to the Phillies this offseason and Gavin Lux to a torn ACL this spring. Even if Toronto did nothing this offseason, it would have a legitimate argument for the top offense in the sport.
But there’s reason to believe the Blue Jays’ offense will be even better in 2023.
Losing Teoscar Hernández is a hit — no pun intended — but the Blue Jays managed to both bolster their outfield defense and balance their right-handed heavy lineup with moves that should present more favorable matchups in 2023.
Newcomer Daulton Varsho is an above-average left-handed hitter who launched 27 home runs last year, and at 26 years old he should be entering his prime with more potential to unlock in a scarier lineup than he had in Arizona. If Brandon Belt stays healthy, that’s another left-handed power threat who can extend one of the most dynamic lineups in baseball, led by young sluggers Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.
Consider that Toronto ranked in the top three in the majors last year in every slash line category despite the lowest OPS of Bichette’s career — albeit still a very respectable .802 mark — and a Guerrero regression from his otherworldly 2021 season (.311/.401/.601, 48 homers) to a simply excellent one in 2022 (.274/.339/.480, 32 homers). Entering their age-25 and -24 seasons, respectively, they’re already among the best hitters at their positions in the game and probably haven’t peaked yet.
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Up and down the lineup, the Blue Jays possess threats. George Springer, an All-Star last year who has averaged an .896 OPS over the past four seasons, remains one of the most dangerous leadoff hitters in the game. Third baseman Matt Chapman is coming off consecutive 27-homer seasons, and a big year should have him getting well-compensated next offseason.
The Blue Jays also boast baseball’s top offensive catching duo in Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen. The former was an All-Star last year and the latter had the highest wRC+ and slugging percentage of any catcher with at least 100 plate appearances last season.
The team is so deep that 2022 All-Star Santiago Espinal will probably be a platoon player. Whit Merrifield, who hit 18% better than league average after his trade to the Blue Jays last year, could man second base or help in the outfield.
Did I mention, ahead of a shift-restricting 2023 season that should reward balls in play, that the Blue Jays also led the majors in batting average last year? They have star power, they're deep, they’re now balanced, and they have everything in place to pace the majors offensively.
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