Where will Michael Conforto play baseball in 2022?

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

When the lockout was lifted and the Hot Stove heated back up, it seemed like there would be at least one player left standing in the game of transactional musical chairs. It was just a matter of who. 

Well, we now have our player without a proverbial seat: Michael Conforto.

With all due respect to the likes of Brett Gardner, Johnny Cueto, J.A. Happ and Brian Goodwin, among others, Conforto stands alone as the best free agent still on the market by a considerable margin. Opening Day is eight days away, and one of the more consistent outfield bats in the league over the past half-decade is still out there, unsigned. 

What happened?

If we rewind to the GM meetings in early November, Conforto’s agent, Scott Boras, seemed plenty confident that his client would have a robust market.

Since then, Boras has negotiated more than $1 billion worth of free-agent contracts, yet Conforto remains the odd one out.

Now, a huge portion of the top of this year’s free-agent class entered the market coming off career years and cashed in accordingly. Trevor Story was really the only other top free agent whose platform year was markedly worse than his career norms, and it took a while for him to find a home in Boston. But Story had the advantage of being a plus defender in the infield, whereas Conforto is known as an average defender at best in a corner outfield spot, which put significantly more pressure on his bat to be in prime form entering free agency. 

Unfortunately, Conforto just posted his worst offensive season since he established himself as an All-Star-caliber player in 2017. That’s not to say he was bad, but it’s easy to imagine teams being less than enthused about handing a multiyear deal to a corner outfielder who was meh at best.

At the GM meetings, Boras offered an explanation for Conforto’s 2021 struggles: He was dealing with the after-effects of a case of COVID-19 that he contracted shortly before spring training, and then a hamstring injury kept him out for much of May and June. The numbers support this general theory, as Conforto’s .639 OPS in the first half pales in comparison to the more familiar .792 mark he posted after the All-Star Break. 

On top of all that, the vibes in Queens weren’t exactly great for much of the season, and Conforto wasn’t the only Mets hitter who severely underperformed after the team excelled offensively in the shortened 2020 season.

Boras seemed confident that teams understood the context behind Conforto’s disappointing year and that it wouldn’t affect his market. To this point, however, it seems that teams are wary of bringing Conforto in for the price Boras is likely still seeking.

But if you zoom out further, there’s plenty of reason to believe he could still be worth the investment, even if it means forfeiting a draft pick due to the qualifying offer he rejected at the start of the offseason. 

I’m inclined to buy Boras’ general explanation for Conforto’s struggles last season. He had a stellar track record leading up to 2021 — and not a short one by any means. He hit .265/.369/.495 in nearly 2,000 plate appearances from 2017 to ‘20, good for a 133 wRC+, a better mark than those of fellow free-agent hitters Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Chris Taylor, Story and Javier Baez over the same span. In fact, Conforto ranked 25th in wRC+ among players with at least 1,000 plate appearances in that time.

Plus, the peripherals from his lackluster 2021 suggest that he wasn’t all that different of a hitter, despite the underwhelming back-of-the-baseball-card results. It’s not like his plate discipline evaporated. In fact, his 21.7% strikeout rate was his lowest since his rookie year, and his 12.3% walk rate was right in line with his career average. He simply wasn’t impacting the ball nearly as consistently when he did make contact, and the BABIP gods weren’t exactly smiling down on him, either. 

All of which is to say that Conforto’s four-year record of performance is nice, but it evidently hasn’t overcome the question fans and teams tend to be more focused on when it comes to free agents: What have you done for me lately? 

Conforto’s platform year disappointed, surely. But the bigger picture makes it easier to understand why Boras is still seeking a significant dollar figure for his client. But with Opening Day around the corner and rosters being finalized, it’s difficult to imagine Conforto landing a deal anywhere close to what Boras was seeking back in November, when he called him the "King of Queens." 

Still, some team is going to sign Conforto soon. So who could be in the mix? Or, perhaps more accurately at this stage, who should be in the mix to plug him into one of their corner outfield spots?

The Blue Jays, White Sox and Padres all would make plenty of sense, but each recently opted to acquire a left-handed outfield bat via trade, with Toronto swapping Randal Grichuk for a sorely needed lefty bat in Raimel Tapia, Chicago acquiring former first-round pick Adam Haseley from the Phillies and San Diego landing Matt Beaty from the Dodgers. 

Conforto is better than all three of those, but the teams seemingly decided that the cost of trading for those less proven but possibly productive players was more worthwhile than handing a significant contract to Conforto. Still, even after the trade for Beaty, the Padres feel like a potential fit, especially if they can move Eric Hosmer’s or Wil Myers’ contracts.  

At the start of the offseason, the Mariners seemed like a decent landing spot for Conforto, a Pacific Northwest native, but they took an even bigger swing, acquiring All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker from Cincinnati, so we can probably cross them off as well. 

The Guardians are arguably the most obvious fit. Frustratingly, Cleveland has thus far spent less in free agency than any other team besides Oakland and seems plenty content to keep it that way. It’s one thing for rebuilding teams to avoid spending money on the free-agent market, but this Cleveland team could easily contend in the AL Central, given the strength of the pitching staff, and it’s maddening to watch them refuse to upgrade a lineup that lacks any semblance of thump outside of Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes.

Among contenders, perhaps my favorite possibility, albeit an unlikely one, is Boston. Signing Conforto and pushing Jackie Bradley Jr. to the bench could give the Red Sox an even deeper lineup to compete in the gauntlet that is the AL East. JBJ would be an expensive fourth outfielder, but his tremendously poor offensive display in 2021 suggests that it’s probably his best role at this stage of his career. 

Who else? The Nationals have room, but Nelson Cruz seems like their one big swing of the winter. The Angels could use Conforto if they deem Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh not completely ready to flank Mike Trout in center field. The Rockies are entirely unpredictable and could add Conforto to boost a powerful outfield core alongside Grichuk and Bryant. The Giants seem perfectly content with their platoons in the outfield, and it’s hard to blame them after their spectacular success last year. 

Could Texas add one more big-ticket item to its unmatched free-agent spending spree? Could Conforto return to the Mets, despite all of their additions in the outfield seemingly to replace him? I don’t know!

All of which is to say that it’s very difficult to identify where Conforto might end up. In some ways, that’s fun — some team is about to add an All-Star outfielder just before Opening Day for a tremendous discount.

I don’t know which team that’s going to be, but I’m hoping Conforto can prove them right for doing so.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.