When will Trevor Story, Red Sox finally get the bats going?

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

"I really don’t know how it’s possible with this lineup that we’re playing like this."

That’s what Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts said after a loss to the White Sox on Friday in the first of a three-game set at Fenway Park.

After that, the Red Sox scored three total runs the next two games, suffering a sweep at home and falling to 10-19 on the season.

Oof.

This was the sixth consecutive series loss for Boston. Of the nine series the Red Sox have played this season, they’ve won just one, taking two of three at Detroit in the second week of the season. Since then, it has been a treacherous spiral down to the bottom of the AL East — yes, even below the Baltimore Orioles.

If this feels oddly familiar, that’s because the Red Sox have had a bizarre track record of yo-yoing between being fearsome contenders and total messes, despite almost always having star players on the roster. In 2012, Boston brought back much of the same roster that won 90 games in 2011, only to lose 93 games and finish last in Bobby Valentine’s only year as manager.

Naturally, the Red Sox hired John Farrell and won the World Series the very next year. Then they promptly fell back to last place in 2014 and 2015 … before winning three straight AL East titles and another World Series in 2018. Totally normal sequence of seasons, right?

The Red Sox rebounded from an ugly, shortened 2020 season to win 92 games in 2021. This year, they brought back much of the roster that reached the ALCS in October. Add Trevor Story, and it seemed perfectly reasonable to expect Boston to compete in the ever-loaded AL East.

Or so we thought.

Let’s get the Story part of this out of the way. He has been bad, yes, undeniably bad. A .194/.276/.269 line with a 33% strikeout rate and zero home runs is not going to cut it for any player, let alone one making $20 million.

But if you look around the league, Story is not the only star free-agent hitter off to a slow start — or at least, an underwhelming one. Twelve hitters signed for at least $50 million guaranteed this past winter. Of those 12, Story ranks 10th in fWAR and wRC+. 

What's worse is that two of the free-agent hitters who are thriving right now, Freddie Freeman and Seiya Suzuki, were targets for Boston in the offseason before landing with the Dodgers and Cubs, respectively. But while Story is an obvious scapegoat — big-money signings are always scrutinized more than players the fan base already knows and loves — but he’s hardly the only laggard.

Another huge issue is that Red Sox outfielders have combined to hit .206/.262/.317 thus far in 2021, amounting to a .579 OPS that ranks 27th in MLB among outfields. If you think that’s bad, consider that Boston first basemen, led by Bobby Dalbec, have hit a combined .129/.195/.190 for a .385 OPS — by far the worst of any 1B group in MLB. 

It’s no surprise that Jackie Bradley Jr., coming off a brutally bad year at the plate in 2021, would be dragging down the outfield numbers. But what about 26-year-old Alex Verdugo and last postseason’s breakout star, Enrique Hernández? And a young slugger in Dalbec who absolutely raked in the second half last year? This was not expected. They’ve been really bad.

Has anything been going well? Bogaerts, to his credit, has certainly done his part. He and Rafael Devers have continued to form one of the most productive left sides of the infield in baseball. DH J.D. Martinez (.855 OPS) has also done what he has been designated to do — hit. A lot. 

Beyond that, though? Yikes.

There’s one possible solution besides just hoping that guys such as Verdugo and Hernandez start hitting again. Dalbec’s immense struggles as the primary first baseman have begged the question: When will we see top prospect Triston Casas? Boston’s first-round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft has surged through the minors and offers tape-measure power similar to Dalbec's but with a much more disciplined approach and from the left side. Casas' .873 OPS in Triple-A as one of the younger players in the league has caught the eyes of Red Sox fans clamoring for an offensive boost.

Boston GM Chaim Bloom is keenly aware of many fans’ cries to see Casas ASAP but insists that the 22-year-old could use more seasoning in Worcester, which very well might be the case. But even if that’s true, Casas might still be Boston’s best option at first base right now, even if he were to experience some level of initial struggle.

Outfield prospect Jarren Duran recently got the call back up to Boston after a hot start of his own, but Duran, who’s 25, had experience at Triple-A in 2021, which Casas did not. If not Casas, shortstop Jeter Downs, the headliner prospect in the infamous Mookie Betts trade, is off to a strong start and could earn a call-up for his MLB debut. Utilityman Ryan Fitzgerald, whom Boston signed out of independent ball in 2018, is raking in Worcester and might also factor into the mix sooner rather than later.

What has been most disappointing through this first month for Boston is that an offense expected to put up buckets of runs has let down a pitching staff that hasn’t been all that bad. If you had told me that Nasty Nate Eovaldi, the eternal Rich Hill, the spectacular Garrett Whitlock and Michael Wacha would have a combined 2.18 ERA in 103.1 innings to start the season, I would've assumed Boston was in pretty decent shape. 

Alas, the Red Sox are not. Plus, Hill is on the COVID-IL, and Wacha just hit the injured list due to an intercostal strain, so the rotation depth is about to be tested.

And pitching reinforcements might not be coming as quickly as hoped, as Chris Sale and James Paxton recently suffered setbacks in their respective rehabs that will likely keep them both on the shelf longer than originally anticipated. It sounds like Sale might not be available until late June, and Paxton’s return might have to wait until after the All-Star break. Rookie right-hander Connor Seabold could reasonably slot into the back of the rotation in the near future, but that’s a lot to ask.

Are the Red Sox toast? Probably not. It’s still plenty early, and as Bogaerts pointed out, they sure do have a lot of good baseball players on their team.

But they are now 10 games behind the first-place Yankees. Only the Cincinnati Reds — off to a historically terrible start at 5-23 — sit farther back from first place in any division. This is quite the hole the Red Sox have dug for themselves.

If they want to turn things around, they’ll need to do so against some quality teams over the next few weeks, including Atlanta, Houston and another series against the White Sox. But starting May 27, Boston has a stretch of 10 games against Baltimore, Cincinnati and Oakland. If the Red Sox can pick up some momentum before then, going 9-1 or 8-2 in that stretch could get them back in the wild-card mix at least.

Then again, the hole might be even deeper by then.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.