What's wrong with Juan Soto? One of MLB's best has yet to find his swing with Padres

SAN DIEGO — Juan Soto batted in a tied bottom of the ninth last week against Brewers relief ace Devin Williams. Soto saw six pitches from Williams, shuffled at a few of them and swung at none. The sixth, in a full count, probably caught the bottom edge of the strike zone. Plate umpire Mark Ripperger called out an incredulous Soto on strikes.

Soto argued his case for several seconds, then slowly retreated. Before he had dejectedly descended the dugout steps, Williams began his delivery to the Padres’ next hitter.

It was Soto bobblehead night at Petco Park, where he is not yet the fan favorite he was in Washington, D.C. General manager A.J. Preller and manager Bob Melvin presented him with his 2022 Silver Slugger award on the field before the game. The Padres lost in extras that night, by one run, as Soto went hitless with two strikeouts in four at-bats.

This is how it’s been for him and for the Padres this season, and really how it’s been for him since his August arrival. San Diego made it to the National League Championship Series last year, but Soto was more of a role player than the catalyst to its run. He had a .778 OPS over 52 regular-season games for the Padres, then a .727 mark over 12 postseason games. This year, his OPS sat at just .707 entering play Tuesday. Soto had a .966 OPS (and 160 OPS+) during his four-plus years with the Nationals, making him one of the 10 best hitters prior to turning 24 in MLB history.

"I’m still working on my stuff," Soto told reporters Monday. "I always say, whatever gives you results, just keep doing it. Even if I’m not getting the results right now, I know I’m going to get it. I’m going to be fine."

The left-handed slugger continues to get on base; his 17 walks lead the majors. He is hitting for some power; six of his 10 hits have been for extra bases. But he is striking out enough, at a career-high rate, and experiencing bad enough batted-ball luck, that his batting average sits at just .164 this season. In 70 total games as a Padre, Soto’s average is just .218. He admitted that he's still trying to adjust to the pace of the pitch clock and sometimes feels rushed when he first steps into the box.

"We just started," Soto said. "It’s been tough. I’ve been having ups and downs. But … it’s just the beginning. [I’m] starting to see the ball better. I think I’m going to be fine."

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Padres manager Bob Melvin said he remains unworried.

"The years are different," he said. "Last year, there was probably a lot put on his plate, with a new team, new environment, expectations, so forth and so on. This year, I think it’s just a smaller sample size."

The sample is, of course, small. But it’s not as if what is happening is wholly random. Soto might be struggling in part because he is not swinging at as many pitches in the strike zone. Pitch Info data shows he is seeing more of those pitches than his norm but swinging at fewer of them.

Soto is still being thrown the fifth-fewest strikes in the sport, but he's also taking the fifth-highest percentage of pitches in the zone. Overall, he is striking out at a career-high rate.

"They’re throwing more strikes," said teammate Nelson Cruz, who has also paired with Soto in Washington and on the Dominican Republic’s World Baseball Classic squad. "That’s the main thing. He’ll adjust, like anything in life. They adjust to you, and you gotta adjust to the pitchers. It’s a play that never ends. He has so much talent that I don’t doubt that he’s gonna come up and be who he is."

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Who is he? Soto’s stock has undeniably decreased in the eight months since San Diego acquired him. He turned down a $440 million contract from the Nationals last summer, but may have some trouble meaningfully besting that number.

Working in his favor: The going rate for top-end talent has shot up, in part because of the Padres’ never-ending pursuit of superstars. Working against him: He hasn’t hit especially well, and he has fielded particularly poorly — though the latter isn't new.

For the foreseeable future, Soto’s floor will be as high as anyone’s in the sport. His strike-zone command renders him, at worst, an above-average hitter. But his deficiencies might combine to limit his ceiling more than was once realized.

The Padres (8-10) need not be concerned with that long-term prognosis just yet. They are committed to him for this season and the next. If he does not deliver on his talent in that time, the organization will suffer. They have spent. Now they need to win. Amid their slow offensive start, they can't clear .500 yet.

"We have a deep lineup. We’re going to score runs. We have the ability to, at times, blow teams out," Melvin said last week. "I expect us to hit our stride sooner than later."

One day later, after a losing three-run effort, Melvin’s tune sounded a little more forceful.

"This team is built to hit," Melvin said. "It’s about time we started to get going, right?"

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Soto and the Padres both. Fortunately for both parties, Fernando Tatís Jr. rejoined the team Monday and will resume playing Thursday, once his PED suspension is complete. Tatís will slot in atop San Diego’s lineup, vaulting Soto from third to second for left-right balance.

"It’s gonna add to the length of it," Melvin said. "It’s gonna add to the power portion of it."

So would a return to form from one of their superstars, the sport’s most patient player. No hitter has swung at a fewer percentage of pitches seen than Soto, but Melvin said he’d never advise him to be more aggressive.

"He’s got a history of doing that," Melvin said. "He’s still walking some, he’s hit some big homers for us. It’s gonna get better as we go along. Because of the fact that the numbers weren’t great last year and he’s off to a slow start this year, it’s going to get a little more attention because of who he is."

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the Dodgers for The Athletic, the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and L.A. Times, and his alma mater, USC, for ESPN Los Angeles. He is the author of "How to Beat a Broken Game." Follow him on Twitter at @pedromoura.

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