What’s Next: Suarez, Red Sox Set For Season-Long Success. How About Phillies?

In just a few years, Ranger Suarez went from being Major League Baseball’s most underrated pitcher to garnering increased attention to, finally, getting paid as one of the top arms in baseball. 

Suarez, who reportedly agreed to a five-year, $130 million contract with the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday, will earn an average annual value (AAV) of $26 million. That positions him among the top 15 highest-paid starting pitchers by AAV. 

That significant financial commitment from Boston is a testament to Suarez’s craft, to be sure. The 30-year-old southpaw owns a 117 ERA+ over the past four seasons. He throws a six-pitch mix that induces soft contact at an elite clip. Suarez’s 31.1 hard-hit percentage ranked eighth among all MLB pitchers last season. Meanwhile, his fastball velocity has dropped year after year. In 2025, Suarez’s four-seamer averaged just 91.3 mph, which fell into the seventh percentile among all pitchers, per Statcast. His diminishing velocity isn’t a red flag like it would be for flamethrowers around the league. Triple-digit fastballs aside, Suarez is excellent at recording outs using effective command while progressively reducing his walk rate.

In the age of obsessing over spin rates and high velocity being The Most Important Thing in pitching, Suarez’s contract signals a different direction from front offices and analytics departments in terms of what they value. There was a reason he entered the offseason as one of the top three free-agent starters on the market. And after climbing up the ladder in the Phillies organization, Philly’s loss is Boston’s gain.

Here’s what’s next for the Red Sox, Phillies, and the future of starting pitching after Suarez’s big contract.

What’s Next For the Red Sox

With the addition of Suarez, the Red Sox march into 2026 with one of the top rotations in MLB. Led by ace Garrett Crochet, who finished second in American League Cy Young voting last year, Boston’s starting staff will feature Suarez, Sonny Gray, whom the Red Sox acquired via trade this winter, Brayan Bello, and an assortment of options for the final slot, including Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, and Connelly Early. That not only makes for an excellent rotation on paper, but the Red Sox also have a ton of pitching depth to carry them through the long season and protect against injuries. 

The splashy move — Boston’s first free-agent signing of the offseason — comes just days after it failed to re-sign free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman, who instead agreed to a five-year, $175 million pact with the Chicago Cubs. By fumbling their opportunity with Bregman, the Red Sox again incensed their fan base with yet another perplexing decision. Last season, Boston traded away the face of their franchise, homegrown slugger Rafael Devers, in favor of Bregman, who instantly became a pivotal member and leader in the Red Sox clubhouse. Then the Red Sox fell short in Bregman’s free agency, and the three-time All-Star wound up spending just one year at Fenway Park. Maddening.

It seems like the Red Sox, with the signing of Suarez, are attempting to course correct by beefing up their pitching staff rather than signing another impact bat. And in the era of pursuing run prevention, acquiring a top-end starter like Suarez, whose average exit velocity (86.5%) was in the top 5% of the league last year, the Red Sox are accomplishing that goal. The 1-2 punch of Crochet and Suarez is going to be fun to watch. And, at the very least, it lessens the sting of losing Bregman.

What’s Next For the Phillies

Suarez spent his entire career — 14 seasons — in the Phillies organization. After signing him at 16 years old as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela, the Phillies watched Suarez ascend through the minor leagues, emerge as an effective big-league reliever, and transform into a middle-of-the-rotation starter before dominating at the top of their starting staff with ace-like stuff. In 2022, Suarez sent the Phillies to the World Series when he recorded the final two outs in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the NLCS. He leaves Philly boasting a 1.48 ERA across 42.2 innings in 11 career playoff appearances. 

Despite how much Suarez meant to the organization, the Phillies were never expected to reunite with their homegrown pitcher. Re-signing slugger Kyle Schwarber was their top priority, which they accomplished, and it was unreasonable, financially, for the Phillies to also re-sign Suarez, who emerged as a top starter in a thin market this winter. They will receive a draft pick this year between the fourth and fifth rounds after Suarez declined their one-year qualifying offer. But that hardly makes up for the significant loss of Suarez from their pitching staff. Where do they go from here?

The Phillies believe their rotation is in solid shape with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Christopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo and top prospect Andrew Painter. But there are still concerns within that group, particularly how Wheeler will respond after undergoing thoracic outlet decompression surgery in September. Nola, too, will need to bounce back from his career-worst 6.01 ERA while he battled injuries and recorded just 17 starts last season. Painter has yet to make his MLB debut. A lot of things have to go right for this to work, and until then, the Phillies will turn their attention to the lineup. They have been connected to free-agent infielder Bo Bichette, and re-signing free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto remains on their offseason to-do list.

What’s Next For the Future of Starting Pitching

That Suarez received $130 million for being more like an ace-in-waiting rather than representing the No. 1 starter in any given rotation is surprising. It means the league is starting to re-prioritize crafty pitchers that excel at command and run prevention, despite not flashing overpowering velocity. In that sense, Suarez’s skillset is a bit of a throwback. 

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But he’s an outlier from those old-school starting pitchers because, historically, he doesn’t pitch deep into games, and that’s perfectly fine in modern baseball. In recent years, teams have emphasized building super bullpens so that starters are only required to pitch five innings before turning the ball to the relief corps. And if Suarez, who in 2021 pitched out of the bullpen in more than half of his appearances, could become an effective reliever-turned-front-end-starter, perhaps more pitchers will follow suit.

Suarez’s talent and his ensuing contract are a case study in why throwing the ball with excellent command can be more effective than focusing on high velocity. He bucked the trend, and it worked. Not every pitcher will be as successful as Suarez, particularly because a part of his big pay day is credited to how calm he is under pressure, especially in the postseason. Still, he’s showing why minimizing the importance of velo is an approach worth pursuing. 

Deesha Thosar covers Major League Baseball as a reporter and columnist for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.