What's next for Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves?

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

Almost every winter, there’s at least one player at or near the top of the free-agent class who seems guaranteed to stay put. 

Sure, his contract has expired, and thus he has technically entered the open market, but there’s no way he’d possibly leave. It’s only a matter of time before he works things out with the franchise he knows best and returns to the fan base he grew up with. Right? Right?!

When Freddie Freeman caught the last out of the 2021 World Series to seal Atlanta’s first championship since 1995, it felt much more like the climax of the veteran first baseman’s Braves story than its final scene. But it has been more than four months since he caught that throw from Dansby Swanson, and Freeman is still a free man. 

To be fair, the Braves could have brought him back only during the first of those four months, due to the ongoing lockout, but again, the bulk of the industry assumed that the Braves working out a deal with Freeman would be one of the first hot stove dominoes to fall in November. 

Instead, we’re now in March, and recent reports suggest that once a new CBA is reached, Freeman’s departure from Atlanta could come more quickly than the reunion we all anticipated.

That’d be a pretty big deal!

Unlike the Astros, who have a ready-made replacement (Jeremy Pena) in the event that Carlos Correa departs in free agency, the Braves do not have an obvious candidate to plug in at first base should Freeman leave. The only player currently in the organization who could step in would be John Nogowski, a 29-year-old journeyman with a solid hitting record in the upper minors but little experience in the big leagues. Atlanta selected him from the Giants in the MiLB portion of the Rule 5 Draft in early December, just a few months after Nogowski had signed with San Francisco. 

With all due respect to the Big Nogowski, a team coming off a championship should have higher standards than handing the job to someone of his caliber, especially when it comes to replacing a franchise icon.

Cue the heavy rumors of a potential trade for Oakland first baseman Matt Olson as Plan A for replacing Freeman. After he seemed to settle in as a big-power, big-strikeout slugger in 2018 and ‘19, Olson cut down on his whiffs in stunning fashion en route to a career year in 2021. His 16.8% strikeout rate was five points lower than in any previous season (minors included), and his epic power (39 home runs) remained fully intact. 

Add his Gold Glove-caliber defense, and Olson has firmly established himself as one of the best first basemen in the game and one of the few who could be just as productive as Freeman in the near future, if not immediately.

In a world in which Oakland seems desperate to get rid of its best players to cut costs, Olson is a no-brainer trade target. That the Braves, historically known for scouting their own backyard better than any other MLB team, didn’t select Olson out of nearby Parkview High School in the 2012 MLB Draft is fairly shocking in retrospect.

My biggest question regarding Olson is not whether he would be a perfect fit in Atlanta but whether the Braves can produce the best offer to acquire him. If Olson is available, as reports suggest, Oakland is obviously going to want to maximize the return on one of the best hitters in the game, who is still two years away from free agency. 

I’m not convinced that the Braves’ below-average farm system can match the offers of some other teams with greater depth. 

Granted, the Braves could overwhelm Oakland with quantity over high-end quality, dangling a deep mix of young big-leaguers and solid minor-leaguers instead of offering the kind of crown-jewel prospect usually associated with blockbuster trades. Such a package might appeal to Oakland, which tends to prefer deals that can keep the team competitive. 

Then again, there are other teams with far more attractive prospects that also need a first baseman.

If not Olson, where else could the Braves turn? Free-agent Anthony Rizzo is another reported possibility. Rizzo is just a month older than Freeman (both are 32) and would presumably come at a fraction of the cost, considering his recent decline from his peak as a fringe MVP candidate to being a merely above-average first baseman. 

Rizzo replacing his friend "Frederick" in Atlanta would be quite a twist:

Beyond Rizzo, there really aren’t any first basemen on the free-agent market who make much sense. One creative option could be Kyle Schwarber, but based on the Braves’ reported interest in Olson and Rizzo, the organization seems to care too much about first-base defense to roll the dice with someone as inexperienced at the position as Schwarber.  

As far as other trade options, Josh Bell, Garrett Cooper and Trey Mancini could be possible targets, but each would come with his own challenges. Trading for Bell or Cooper from division rivals Washington or Miami would be more expensive than trading with a non-NL East counterpart. And Mancini, though entering the last year of his deal in Baltimore, is still the face of the franchise and thus difficult to ask for in a trade.

That said, if Atlanta can’t get Olson but is inclined to use prospect capital to find a first baseman, any of those three could be reasonable alternatives to Rizzo. In fact, since the start of 2019, the four sluggers’ slash lines are quite similar:

* Rizzo: .263/.369/.469 in 1,432 plate appearances
* Cooper: .282/.357/.461 in 804 plate appearances
* Bell: .262/.349/.498 in 1,404 plate appearances
* Mancini: .274/.346/.485 in 1,295 plate appearances

What about Freeman, though? As difficult as it is to fathom the Braves letting him walk, it’s nearly as difficult to imagine him in a different uniform. Some free agents are just much harder to envision in other uniforms than others, and Freeman is one of the stronger examples from recent years. 

But hey, a free agent is a free agent, and a free agent as good as Freeman would attract a bevy of suitors.

Thus far, four teams have emerged: the Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Rays. The Yankees are an easy fit, as they do not seem content to keep rolling with Luke Voit, despite his epic 2020 campaign, and they play in a ballpark that would maximize Freeman’s left-handed power production. 

The Dodgers are likely more in play now, with the expected introduction of the universal DH, and they are always looking to add superstar talent to their organization. 

Toronto is probably the most fun possibility, as the Blue Jays are ascending quickly and might need just one more star to put them over the hump in the AL East. The fact that Freeman’s parents are Canadian, and he represented Team Canada in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, makes it an even better match.

But wait — the Rays? They certainly check the box of "contender," but they don’t pass the smell test of a team willing to pay top dollar for a free agent. I think Tampa Bay is better positioned to swing a trade for Matt Olson than to court a player such as Freeman in free agency, but I suppose wilder things have happened.

If I had to guess, the rest of the league is only just getting used to the notion that Freeman could indeed leave Atlanta and, thus, hasn’t done as much legwork on him as some other free agents. As soon as a new CBA is reached, I could see several other teams getting into the mix quickly.

Of course, all this will be moot if the Braves ultimately decide to work things out with Freeman post-lockout. But at this point, I think it’s best we start preparing for the reality that the Freeman Era in Atlanta is most likely over.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.