What loss of Walker Buehler means for Dodgers’ rotation come October

By Rowan Kavner
FOX Sports MLB Writer

For the Dodgers to make a deep October run, they must absorb the absence of their most reliable playoff ace.

Walker Buehler will undergo season-ending elbow surgery on Aug. 23, a brutal hit for the top pitching staff in baseball as the Dodgers sprint toward a 10th straight postseason appearance and a ninth division title in the past 10 years.

Despite a litany of pitching injuries, most notably to Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers are on pace to shatter their franchise record for wins. The latter is expected to return in time for the playoffs. The same can no longer be said for the former.

Buehler entered this season coming off a spectacular 2021 in which he went 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA and led the majors with 33 starts, accomplishing his goal of surpassing the 200-inning mark for the first time in his career. But the increased workload might have caught up to him.

Throughout his career, Buehler has consistently answered the call when the Dodgers needed him most. In 2018, he allowed one hit in 6.2 innings against the Rockies in a tiebreaker to decide the division. That year — his first as a major-league starter — he proceeded to deliver seven shutout innings in Game 3 of the 2018 World Series.

A year later, Buehler allowed one run in 12.2 innings in the National League Division Series. His penchant for postseason prowess grew. In the 2020 World Series, Buehler surrendered one run while striking out 10 batters in six innings against the Rays.

But last October, Buehler was asked to pitch on short rest on multiple occasions for the first time in his career. In Game 6 of the NLCS, the Braves tagged him for four runs in four innings of a 4-2 defeat. The loss didn’t sit well with him, and he started his offseason program earlier than usual in an effort to hit the ground running in 2022.

Despite some spectacular moments — he recorded his first career shutout and MLB’s first complete game of the season on April 25 — he rarely looked right. His typically reliable four-seamer didn’t have the same life. Buehler held a 4.02 ERA and was averaging a career-low eight strikeouts per nine innings when he went to the injured list due to a flexor strain on June 11. 

At the time, the right-hander also elected to get surgery to remove a bone spur that had bothered him for years. The procedure wasn’t expected to impact his 10-to-12-week timeline for return. "Kind of kill two birds with one stone," Buehler said at the time.

If all went to plan, he could return in September, ideally with enough time to build up as a starter before the postseason. Even if he required more time, he could help the Dodgers in relief in October.

It did not all go to plan.

Buehler’s progress screeched to a halt during the Dodgers’ last homestand, when he started feeling sharpness in his elbow. The Dodgers haven’t unveiled the specifics of his elbow injury. The severity, as well as the timetable for recovery, might not be clear until Dr. Neal ElAttrache goes in for surgery. 

"It’s certainly a blow," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters this week. "We’re better with Walker on our ballclub. But there’s just nothing we can do about it. I still believe that we have enough guys to get through October to prevent runs."

Considering the Dodgers’ sizable lead in the division — 17 games entering Thursday — the loss of Buehler is less about August and September and more about how his production will be replaced once the playoffs arrive.

At the same time Buehler’s surgery was announced, starting pitcher Dustin May rejoined the Dodgers for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. May is expected to make his 2022 debut Saturday, when the team returns to Los Angeles and should factor into the Dodgers’ October plans. For the interim, the Dodgers appear ready to use a six-man rotation of Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, May and Ryan Pepiot, lessening the load on the entire group.

"The guys that we’ve had, we’ve leaned on a lot," Roberts said. "So to have a guy that hasn’t pitched a major-league inning yet this year, have a fresh arm and a talented arm, is going to be a big boost for all of us."

Even with injuries to Buehler and Kershaw, who’s on the injured list due to a back injury for the second time this year, the talent is undeniable in a Dodgers rotation that leads the majors with a 2.71 ERA.

Urías has been the best pitcher in the National League since the start of June, leading all qualified starters in wins (10) and ERA (2.05). Gonsolin, an All-Star, is 15-1 with a 2.12 ERA that trails only Miami’s Sandy Alcantara for the best mark in the NL. Anderson, also an All-Star, is 13-2 with a 2.81 ERA. Heaney has been magnificent when healthy, boasting a 1.16 ERA on the year.

They could all be called upon in some form or fashion come October. But as a group, the playoff experience is limited among the Dodgers’ healthy starters.

Heaney has never pitched in the playoffs. Gonsolin has a career 9.45 postseason ERA in seven playoff outings (three starts). Anderson has made two playoff appearances in his career (one start).

May, at just 24 years old, has pitched more playoff innings than each of those three, albeit in a similarly small sample. He has made six relief appearances and three starts in his postseason career, going no more than two innings in any of those outings. More might be asked of him this year. 

The Dodgers believe he is ready. They brought him back slowly, ensuring a second-half return was in play. The hard-throwing right-hander made five rehab appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City, posting a 1.89 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 19 innings. It was a continuation of May’s encouraging start to the 2021 season — cut short after five starts — when he nearly doubled his strikeout rate from the year prior.

Given Buehler’s injury and the Dodgers’ decision not to add rotation help at the deadline, May’s readiness carries more weight. It also highlights the importance of Urías, who continues to cement his place among the league’s elite and the Dodgers’ steadiest arms.

"I know he’s not an All-Star, but we’ve got to be getting close to [Urías] being in the Cy Young race here," Freddie Freeman said. "Every single time he goes out there, it’s a chance for us to win and a chance for him to throw a scoreless outing."

The Dodgers have used the precocious left-hander in a variety of roles throughout his postseason career. In 2020, Urías starred in relief. He tossed the final three innings of the NLCS to advance the Dodgers to the World Series, where he finished off the Rays in the deciding Game 6 with 2.1 perfect innings to earn the save. 

Urías carried that momentum into the 2021 season, when he became MLB’s lone 20-game winner. Despite throwing 106 more innings that year than any previous year, he was still asked to serve in a hybrid role in the postseason. Pitching on just two days of rest after starting Game 5 of the NLDS, Urías threw 14 pitches in Game 2 of the NLCS and suffered a blown save. Three days later, he started Game 4.

He has always been willing to help however the Dodgers ask. Now, that means anchoring a shorthanded rotation and taking center stage.

"Julio needs to be that guy at the top right now until we get Clayton back, and he's done that," Roberts said. "You look at the last couple of months, I think he's embraced that."

That will be crucial going forward as well. 

Some interesting decisions await as the Dodgers consider how to divvy up their October innings.

Gonsolin looks stronger in August than he did in July, but he has already thrown more than twice as many innings as in any previous season. Heaney has been limited to seven starts due to a shoulder injury. Anderson has never demonstrated this type of sustained major-league success before, and he’ll be entering his first postseason in four years. Even in a best-case scenario, Kershaw will be recently removed from a back injury, and May will be returning from major surgery. The other starting options are rookies.

That leaves Urías — with 53.2 playoff innings under his belt, looking sharper and throwing harder as the 2022 season progresses — to be the guiding force of a Dodgers postseason rotation that, for the first time in five years, won’t feature Buehler.

"Left arms don’t come around like that very often," Freeman said. "We’ve got to keep him going."

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. A proud LSU alumnus, he credits his time as a sportswriter and editor at The Daily Reveille for preparing him for a career covering the NFL, NBA and MLB. Prior to joining FOX, he worked as the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. When not at a stadium or watching sports, Rowan enjoys playing with his dog, hiking, running, golfing and reminiscing about the Mavs’ 2011 championship run. You can find him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.