Washington Nationals Don't Lose By Improving Their Lineup
The Washington Nationals gave up a king’s ransom in prospects Wednesday to acquire Adam Eaton, but the trickle-down effects will result in significant short-term benefits.
In baseball, as in any sport or competition, we are often quick to declare winners and losers for every single transaction. In the hours following Wednesday’s trade sending Adam Eaton from the Chicago White Sox to the Washington Nationals in exchange for right-handed pitching prospects Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning, the baseball world seemed awfully eager to label the White Sox as the clear victor. While this trio is certainly highly-regarded in the industry, let us remember: Eaton is a really good player with a really team-friendly contract that fills a really big hole on a really good team.
One will find many articles lauding White Sox GM Rick Hahn for this deal, and rightfully so. These are three great pitching prospects, and the White Sox have decided they will not be playoff contenders for the next couple of seasons. Eaton would be of little use to them, but they knew his value and capitalized on that knowledge. But prospects are just that: prospects. There is no guarantee that any or all of this immense potential will be realized. Five years from now we may look back and see that Giolito, Lopez and Dunning form the core of a pitching staff contending for the World Series, or they could all have flamed out.
Eaton has just three full seasons of major league experience to his name with the White Sox, to go along with parts of two more before that with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but he is already a known commodity. Eaton is what he is at the plate: an on-base specialist who packs some pop in his small frame at the top of a lineup. His 2015 and 2016 batting lines were nearly identical. In 2015 Eaton hit for a line of .287/.361/.431; in 2016 he hit for a line of .284/.362/.428 in 17 more plate appearances. Eaton hit the same number of singles, triples and homers each season, tacking on one extra double and five more walks in 2016. That is remarkable consistency.
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Eaton is a little bit more of a question mark in center field. While his defensive production spiked tremendously in 2016 with his move to right field, his 2014 in center field was actually quite decent compared to 2015. According to Baseball Reference, Eaton had an identical 1.8 defensive wins above replacement in 2014 and 2016. He might very well be a better right fielder than center fielder, but it’s not as cut and dried a case as what many are making it out to be.
We know what Eaton can do offensively, we think we know what he can do defensively, and we know he will do this for much less than market value on a very team-friendly contract that has team options extending through the 2021 season. We also know that adding Eaton’s strongly positive bat means removing a strongly negative bat from the lineup.
The most likely scenario sees Eaton taking over in center, moving Trea Turner back to his natural shortstop position. This removes Danny Espinosa and his .209/.306/.378 line from the lineup. However, Espinosa is a plus defender. The Nationals would be best served finding a way to distance themselves from Ryan Zimmerman’s even worse .218/.272/.370 batting line that carries with it the added bonus of poor defense at first base. Zimmerman still has $46 million coming his way through the 2019 season, but he has been a below-average player for the past three years and significantly below replacement level over the course of 115 games in 2016.
If the Nationals were to truly optimize their lineup, they could move Turner to second and Daniel Murphy to first, vastly improving the defense at both positions. Alternatively, they could keep Turner in center and Eaton in right while shifting Bryce Harper to left field and Jayson Werth to first base. However, Werth has played all of one inning at first in his career. Either way, this optimized lineup without Zimmerman is fun to think about but probably would not be fun for Dusty Baker to manage. Only those inside the clubhouse could truly know how having a $46 million ($48 million if you include the buyout on Zimmerman’s 2020 team option) bench player would impact the situation off the field.
The Nationals are coming off a 95-win season and appear as poised as anyone to challenge the Cubs for National League supremacy. The top of the lineup featuring some combination of Eaton, Turner, Harper, Murphy and Anthony Rendon could be as strong as any in the league. Additionally, there are five good reasons why the Nationals may have viewed their trio of prospects as expendable in a deal for a star outfielder: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark, Gio Gonzalez and Joe Ross. This quintet will be together for the next two years should Gonzalez’s 2018 option vest upon reaching 180 innings pitched in 2017.
The White Sox did well for themselves Wednesday in their return for an underappreciated outfielder. Just don’t feel too bad for the Nationals, who made significant improvements to their lineup and team defense without sacrificing production for the next couple of seasons. Even incremental improvements can have a major effect in the chase for a pennant, so let’s consider this trade a win-win for now.