Trading Hamels might not net Phillies what they want

Which pitcher has greater trade value, David Price at last year’s non-waiver deadline or Cole Hamels at this year’s?

The answer is not obvious. And because it’s not obvious, the Phillies might need to lower their expectations on what a trade for Hamels would bring in the next 10 days.

This is not my opinion. This is the opinion of people in the game. This is about how teams value prospects and high-priced players, about how trades work today.

It’s not February 2008, when incoming Phillies president Andy MacPhail made one of the best deals of the last decade for the Orioles, acquiring center fielder Adam Jones and right-hander Chris Tillman as part of a five-player return for lefty Erik Bedard.

Those trades rarely happen anymore. And when they do -- think pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel for shortstop Addison Russell, outfielder Billy McKinney and righty Dan Straily a year ago -- they’re considered outliers and for the buyer cause for almost immediate regret.

The Price trade -- in which the Rays acquired two young, major-league-ready types, left-hander Drew Smyly and infielder Nick Franklin, and a top 100 prospect, Willy Adames -- was a better reflection of the current deadline calculus.

Most panned the Rays for that return, though Smyly looked like at least a mid-rotation starter before he got hurt and Adames could develop into a star. The Rays could have fared better by landing Russell for Price nearly a month earlier, but the A’s preferred to flip the coveted shortstop to the Cubs for two pitchers instead of one.

In any case, Price was 28 at the time he was traded; Hamels currently is 31. Price probably is the better pitcher, though not by much. And Price had about $4.75 million left in 2014 salary at the time he went to the Tigers -- plus one more year of arbitration, which turned out to be worth $19.75 million.

Hamels at the deadline will be owed about $7.5 million for the rest of ’15 and $22.5 million per season from ’16 to ’18, plus $20 million if his option vests or a $6 million buyout in ’19 -- a total of at least $81 million.

Teams covet control. Hamels, at minimum, is under control for at least 2½ times longer than Price was. But that control comes at the high cost of Hamels’ salaries from ages 32 to 34, during which point he could start to decline.

Interested teams, when assessing Hamels’ value, start with a question: What would Hamels command as a free agent if he signed a three-year deal at the end of the season?

For the sake of discussion, let’s say $32 million per season. Using that figure, Hamels’ current deal includes a surplus value -- his projected free-agent value minus his current value. That value equates to about $9.5 million per season, or a total of $28.5 million.

In truth, Hamel’s current surplus value is even greater; teams will pay a premium at the deadline due to the difficulty of acquiring players in-season (Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron wrote last year about this multiplier effect.) Again, we’re estimating, but let’s assign Hamels a total surplus value of $50 million --and that number, based on discussions with people in the game, probably is high.

Well, one top 25 prospect today is worth at least $50 million alone. Put a top-five guy such as Byron Buxton on the open market, and he would get considerably more.

By these measures, what should the Phillies realistically expect for Hamels? A good prospect for sure (though one more at the level of Adames than, say, Red Sox OF Mookie Betts). And then perhaps a few major-league-ready types with upside, similar to what Smyly and Franklin represented for the Rays a year ago.

In other words, something like Price Redux.

The Phillies do not want to hear this; Hamels is their biggest trade chip, the one they are counting on to help accelerate their rebuilding process. Their fans will not want to hear it, either; for more than a year now, they’ve anticipated a monster package for Hamels, with club officials promising that they will move him only for fair value.

Alas, the definition of “fair value” has changed. Prospects are in, high-priced pitchers in their early 30s are out – particularly when such pitchers will be readily available this offseason in free agency, where the cost in talent is no more than a draft pick.

Maybe some team will jump and overpay for Hamels, though it seems unlikely when pitchers such as Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir and perhaps Price also are available in trade -- and when teams turned to other options last offseason rather than meet the Phillies’ price.

Yes, the Phillies could keep Hamels, but his value only will diminish. Making matters even more urgent, the uncertainty of the situation finally might be getting to Hamels, as evidenced by his poor showings in his two most recent starts. He wants to play for a winner, and remaining stuck in purgatory in Philadelphia is not going to improve his outlook.

This has gone on long enough. The Rays made the best deal they could for Price a year ago. The Phillies need to accept the new reality and do the same with Hamels.