Time for Rays to consider trading veteran 3B Longoria

The fun thing about the American League in 2015 was the fact that it was an unmitigated free-for-all. We pretty well knew it would be before the season began, and it played out just that way. Only the A's fell out of contention early, and even they finished with a third-order winning percentage (a Baseball Prospectus metric we use to estimate the record a team deserved, stripping away the luck of good and bad bounces, and good and bad timing) just under .500. The only other team in the group to win fewer than 76 games was Detroit, and the Tigers were .500 at the All-Star break. The Royals pulled away fairly early in the AL Central, but all four of the other playoff spots were up for grabs at least as late as the beginning of September.

Quietly, in all that rattling noise of effort and tussle and ambition, the Rays floated serenely through a season of utter irrelevance. They finished 80-82, and other than for a moment in late June (right after their longest winning streak of the season, right before their longest losing streak), it never felt like they were going to be significantly better. Their third-order winning percentage was .534, and they did some neat new things with pitcher usage. They had a handful of players turn in inspiring campaigns, led by defensive whiz Kevin Kiermaier and thoroughly delightful ace starter Chris Archer, but the middle of their roster was far softer than those of the teams that emerged as legitimate contenders.

Somewhere on the fringe -- on the cut line between being part of the problem and offering a real solution -- stood Evan Longoria. For the second straight year, Longoria's value fell across the board. He hit fewer home runs than he ever has over a full season, walked at a career-low 7.6-percent rate and continued to degrade defensively. In 2016, he will be 30, so it seems unlikely that he'll recover his peak production, which saw him turn in at least 5.9 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) in four of five seasons between 2009 and 2013 (and all four in which he played more than half a season).

The main question is whether Longoria will maintain the fairly low-grade decline he's shown so far, or whether at some point, he'll crater. If the former, Longoria could still cobble together a case for the Hall of Fame, and would be a tremendous bargain over the remaining life of his contract with the Rays --€“ his deal stretches seven more seasons (plus a club option) for at least $105.5 million. If the latter, he'll soon become an albatross around whom the small-market Rays can't build a winner.

In fact, it might be better for Tampa Bay's front office not to wait and see which way things break. According to owner Stuart Sternberg, the Rays are in tough financial shape, and absolutely can't stretch the payroll beyond its current $70 million projection. Owners have a long history of falsely crying poor, and the more credible the case an owner has, the more empowered he often feels to overstate the problem. Sternberg's track record isn't Jeffrey Loria's, though, and the truth is that the Rays do seem strapped for cash.

If all of that is true, and if one accepts that the Rays are clearly inferior to the Red Sox and Blue Jays heading toward 2016, then trading Longoria becomes the obvious choice. He'll make $11.5 million this coming season, and his salary only escalates from there. Right now, while he still looks like a very valuable asset (he'd certainly sign for much more than $105.5 million over seven years, or $118.5 million for eight, if he hit the free-agent market today), Longoria should become trade bait, as the Rays look to really turn things over from the Joe Maddon-Andrew Friedman era. Those guys are gone, and while Longoria represents the best of their legacy, he's getting past his prime. It's time to cash him in.

To whom? Fortunately for the Rays, there's not a shortage of options there.

The Diamondbacks hope to contend in 2016, but project to start second-year, second-division Jake Lamb at third base. Lamb is a fine player, but he'd look a lot better as one piece the Rays could bet on to fuel their on-the-fly reloading than he does as a key cog on a team with a short competitive window of which they must take advantage. Arizona might need to move money around to afford Longoria, after their pricey winter pitching additions, but it's certainly possible for them.

The Tigers keep saying they want to extend their competitive window and get back on top of the AL Central heap, but they keep running Nick Castellanos out at third base. It's not clear that Detroit could put together a sufficiently attractive trade package, but it would have no problem getting ownership to sign off on the long-term investment in Longoria, at least.

The Astros could have interest. The Angels could have interest (although, if the Tigers can't get Longoria with the talent they have on hand, neither can the Angels). The Pirates would make a fascinating fit, a team in need of infield help and ready to win immediately, with a deep farm system available -- but they're making the same noises about financial restrictions that the Rays are. Many teams would get involved.

Two legitimate suitors stand out from the crowd, though: the Nationals and the Dodgers. Both have money. Both have prospects. And with Anthony Rendon and Justin Turner each having experience at second base, each team could accommodate Longoria. Each needs a boost like this one. Each can help the Rays with MLB-ready talent that could speed whatever rebuilding process remains ahead of them. The Dodgers, of course, are run by Friedman, who was so enamored of Longoria as to offer him both of the extensions he signed in Tampa Bay.

There is one catch: The market for late-prime third basemen doesn't seem to be overwhelmingly robust. The Reds traded Todd Frazier on Wednesday, and the (admittedly, early, subjective and anonymous) reviews of the return they got for him from industry insiders have been icy. Presumably, Longoria's longer track record, better second half, and much longer, team-friendlier term of control make him a more attractive trade candidate than Frazier, so he should fetch much more. Perhaps that's not a given, though, and perhaps that's why the Rays aren't even looking at shopping him yet.

It would be foolish for the Rays to pull the trigger on a Longoria deal without getting a legitimately enticing offer. They have seven more years of him with which to work, after all, and while there's some ominous writing on these walls, there's not yet blood streaming down them. Longoria is a good player in need of some counter-adjustments at the plate, but he's one player the Rays know they can trust to make them. Giving away the face of the franchise to save money and grease the wheels of a rebuild would be a disastrous move.

Trading him at the last peak of his value, though, with a market aching for excuses not to back up a Brinks truck for David Freese or Ian Desmond, seems not only sensible, but like the kind of opportunity a team like Tampa can ill afford to miss. If Longoria does see his production drop through the floor any time during the next two years, the Rays need to make sure it happens in someone else's laundry.