The Padres are outspending the Dodgers, but are they better?

By Pedro Moura
Published

Twenty-four days after the Phillies eliminated them from the National League Championship Series, the Padres started signing players again. It began with reliever Robert Suárez, the breakout right-hander they had recruited from Japan 11 months earlier. They guaranteed him $30 million.

Five days later, they re-signed another valuable reliever, Nick Martinez, to a deal worth at least $10 million. Seventeen days after that, they signed Xander Bogaerts for $280 million. To round out December, San Diego signed Matt Carpenter and Seth Lugo, committing $22.5 million more. In January, they signed Adam Engel and Nelson Cruz for a few more million bucks. 

And now, in February, they have extended Yu Darvish, in a surprising six-year deal he first thought was a prank, and added one last starter: Michael Wacha. That’s eight major-league additions, at the cost of nearly half a billion dollars in new money, to a semifinal team.

The Padres’ Opening Day payroll, thus, will dwarf anything else the franchise has ever wielded. It will represent a more than 20% increase on last year’s figure, which was a more than 20% increase on the previous year’s figure — which was a near-doubling of the previous full season's figure. In fact, San Diego’s 2027 commitments, to six players, already represent a 28% increase on the club’s entire 2019 payroll.

And they may not be done. Reports indicate that the club will pursue an extension with Manny Machado, whose contract affords him the opportunity to opt out after this season. Machado already makes $30 million annually. An extension would probably not significantly increase his salary, but rather supply it for more years to come. In fact, if Darvish’s model is to be followed, Machado could even agree to an annual decrease in exchange for a longer, larger overall commitment.

All of this outlay is interesting for two reasons. The sport had not, until now, seen a relatively small-market team commit to spending this type of money for this many years. And secondly, with all this money, the Padres seem to have actually constructed a 2023 roster that might be deeper than their chief rivals, the Dodgers. Which team boasts more star power is debatable, but it’s increasingly clear that San Diego employs at least as many competent big leaguers. That’s new territory in the NL West, and it bodes well for the Padres’ chances to again unseat the Dodgers in 2023. 

Less clear are San Diego's chances to do so for years to come. At least for luxury-tax purposes, the Padres already pay two players more money than the Dodgers pay their most expensive player, and they'll have to pay a third, Juan Soto, if they want to keep him beyond the 2024 season. The Dodgers have sustained their success in part by avoiding paying any players top-of-the-market rates.

But the Padres’ methods have clearly worked of late. This year might tell us if they can keep up their frenzied pace.

The Dodgers’ own depth additions

It’s not what their fans have been clamoring for, but the Dodgers have consistently been adding useful veterans to short-term deals all offseason. The latest acquisitions are outfielder David Peralta and right-hander Alex Reyes. Peralta, nearly 36, figures to play a platoon role in the corner outfield, while Reyes, 28, could return from injury later in the season as a bullpen force.

These follow the December signings of right-hander Noah Syndergaard, designated hitter J.D. Martinez, and reliever Shelby Miller, and the January trade for infielder Miguel Rojas.

It’s worth wondering if the Dodgers would have made all these moves had the Padres not done everything they did. They were, at one point, flirting with staying under the luxury-tax threshold. They’ve since surpassed it, in significant part because of an arbitrator's decision to reinstate Trevor Bauer that forced the team to pay him. Another part might be the Padres’ efforts.

In years past, the Dodgers have been known to use their rivals’ decisions to help determine their offseason path. With this year’s choices, they have positioned themselves to remain competitive in 2023 and, perhaps, dominant beyond. Consider that they have less money committed to their 2024 payroll than the Padres have committed to 2028.

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the Dodgers for The Athletic, the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and L.A. Times, and his alma mater, USC, for ESPN Los Angeles. He is the author of "How to Beat a Broken Game." Follow him on Twitter at @pedromoura.

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