St. Louis Cardinals: Jedd Gyorko 2017 Expectations

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Jedd Gyorko was a key piece for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016. What should fans expect from him next season?

Recently, our own Josh Brown revisited the trade which brought Jedd Gyorko from the San Diego Padres to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016. This move cleared the way for Randal Grichuk to take over as the full-time center fielder and added necessary depth to the Cardinals infield.

The St. Louis Cardinals saw Gyorko as a utility man capable of serviceable play at any spot on the infield. This was especially important to the team for a few reasons.

Most obvious were the second half slumps from Jhonny Peralta and Kolten Wong the season prior in 2015 as manager Mike Matheny rode the middle infielders into the ground. Their heavy usage was necessitated by a lack of viable options behind them.

Additionally, at first base the St. Louis Cardinals were counting on a position change from Matt Holliday, as well as incumbents Brandon Moss and Matt Adams. Holliday at first was a complete unknown, Moss was coming off a down year in 2015, and Matt Adams had yet to show the consistency required to play every day.

Finally, at third base, the Cardinals were depending on Matt Carpenter. While Carpenter’s yearly production provided little reason for concern, his capacity to play every day was a reason to worry: Carpenter suffered from dehydration at the end of 2014 and fought a bout of “extreme fatigue” early in 2015.

Jedd Gyorko gave the St. Louis Cardinals a backup option at every one of these positions, and his team-friendly contract (of which the Padres will pay $7.5 million) made him a low-risk option controlled through 2020.

Gyorko came with some upside as well, making two appearances on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect lists before his strong rookie season in 2013. While he had struggled through two sub-par seasons since, the St. Louis Cardinals were hopeful that a change of scenery might provide a spark to the infielder.

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Jedd Gyorko was the “Next Man Up” for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016.

Injuries and a need for depth were the primary motivators behind the acquisition of Jedd Gyorko. It is hard to imagine the trade unfolding better for the St. Louis Cardinals than it did in 2016, as the concerns the team had following the 2015 season reared their heads early and often.

Right off the bat, Jhonny Peralta suffered a torn ligament in his thumb early in Spring Training. Tommy Pham then pulled an oblique on opening day, which sent Matt Holliday back to left field instead of first base. Additionally, Kolten Wong would struggle to start the season before eventually being sent to AAA.

Of course, the injuries were just starting to pile up. On July 6th, Matt Carpenter suffered an oblique injury that would sideline him for a month. On July 31st, Aledmys Diaz fractured his right thumb. Less than two weeks later, Matt Holliday fell victim to a similar injury, which would force Brandon Moss into everyday duties in left field.

In a season which featured a revolving door of injuries, Gyorko was constantly the “next man up.”

Jedd Gyorko helped to cover for these injuries and keep the Cardinals in contention for a playoff spot throughout the season. Gyorko would play over 200 innings at second base, third base, and shortstop while also playing limited innings at first base. He rated as above-average in his limited time at three of these four positions, with the only exception being at shortstop.

Gyorko proved to be versatile offensively as well. Over the course of the season, Gyorko made appearances at every slot in the batting order and was a valuable bat off the bench as a pinch hitter.

Overall, Jedd Gyorko proved to be one of the St. Louis Cardinals’ better hitters over the season. His slash line of .243/.306/.495 was good for a career-best 111 wRC+ over 438 plate appearances. He also led the 2016 power surge in St. Louis, blasting a team-best 30 home runs.

Jedd Gyorko’s 2016 season proved how valuable a piece he could be as an everyday utility infielder. He accumulated 2.3 fWAR on the season, the best since his rookie year and fifth among Cardinals position players in 2016. His success over his first campaign in St. Louis set a high standard that he will attempt to follow-up in 2017.

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Jedd Gyorko’s breakout in 2016 has many St. Louis Cardinals fans calling for him to take on a role as an everyday player in 2017.

The St. Louis Cardinals are entering the 2017 season with a question mark at third base. The front office appears intent on rolling with Peralta to start the season while some fans are hoping for a solution from the free agent or trade market; others are calling for Jedd Gyorko to take over full-time duties at third.

There were indications last season that Gyorko could handle this responsibility. In limited time at third in 2016, he flashed above-average defensive ability and posted a 1.7 UZR and 8.4 UZR/150. His bat, if his success at the plate holds up, would likely profile well at third.

How Gyorko will fare at the plate going forward is difficult to predict. His success this past year was largely due to an increased ability to hit home runs: his 24.4% HR/FB rate was the highest of his career and was more than 8.0% greater than his previous career high in 2013.

Since the Padres and Cardinals home parks have been similarly difficult for right handed batters since 2013 (as measured by FanGraphs Handedness Park Factors), Gyorko will likely see his home run prowess regress in future seasons.

Jedd Gyorko does appear, however, to have made an adjustment in his offensive approach to support higher power numbers. He became a more pull-dependent-fly-ball hitter this past season, posting a career high 45.2% Pull% to go with a career high 40.3% FB%.

Therefore, while expecting him to maintain his 2016 HR/FB rate might be unreasonable, we might imagine that this rate going forward will be above his career average entering the 2016 season.

Gyorko might also be due for some positive regression at the plate going forward.

His 2016 BABIP was a career-low .244 and fourth lowest among players with greater than 400 plate appearances in 2016, which might indicate he hit into some bad luck. While part of this is due to hitting more fly balls, he only ranked 54th among the sample set in FB%. Additionally, he had an above-average Hard% of 34.8%, in line with a 34.0% career average.

Overall, his batted ball profile suggests he should expect some better batted ball luck going forward, and his Steamer Projections see his BABIP rebounding to .278 next season. Thus, it is likely he will maintain similar offensive value going forward, though with slightly less power and a slightly better average.

There are, however, signs that point against using Gyorko as the everyday third baseman to start 2017.

First off, Gyorko has been a notoriously bad hitter in the first month of the season over his career. In 87 career games in March or April, he owns a .193/.263/.295 line worth only a 56 wRC+; his Hard% in March/April of 26.1% is nearly 10% lower than his overall average Hard% of 34.0%. Given this susceptibility to slow starts, it makes more sense to leave Gyorko in a backup role where he will not be depended on offensively early in the season while the starters are well rested.

Defensively, it would require a small leap of faith to assume Jedd Gyorko would be ready to handle everyday responsibilities at the hot corner.

He has played only 364 career innings at third, compared to 438 at shortstop and over 3,000 at second base. While he was above-average at third in 2016, his limited playing time is too small a sample size to draw any conclusions as to how he would fare over a full season at the position.

Given these limitations, Jedd Gyorko might be best kept in a utility role for the 2017 season. From this role, he can serve as an insurance policy for every infield position should injuries arise.

Additionally, he can still manage to get around 400 plate appearances and play in approximately three out of every four games in his role as a utility backup infielder. He can probably expect to play 300 innings at both second and third, while putting in another combined 300 innings between shortstop and first.

Steamer projects that Gyorko will put together a .249/.311/.495 line and an average 100 wRC+ season at the plate while being slightly below-average defensively. Overall, he is expected to be worth 1.5 WAR. Offensively, I think this is a fair expectation for Gyorko, however, I expect him to be worth more defensively, since he will primarily play positions where he has recently had above average ratings.

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I predict Gyorko will again be worth between 2.0 and 2.5 WAR in 2017 as he continues to thrive in his utility role with the St. Louis Cardinals. Thanks for reading and go Cardinals!