Spinning a web: Spin rate and effectivness
When looking at spin rate you see a pitchers ability to create movement. The more a ball spins, the more it moves. When you look at the rotation of a ball you can see a few examples where bigger is going to be better. Therefore the more a fastball spins, the more its going to appear to have that “late life” changing the trajectory of the ball and diminishing a hitters ability to judge where the ball will end up.
During the August 25th Statcast podcast on MLB.com, Mike Petriello and Matt Meyers dove into spin rate and how it is impacting the game. Fascinated, I took a look at the numbers they provided and looked for a few of my own.
(Tables courtesy of Jeff Zimmerman of Rotowire)
Fastball Swinging Strike%
Spin |
||||||||||||
Velocity |
1600 |
1700 |
1800 |
1900 |
2000 |
2100 |
2200 |
2300 |
2400 |
2500 |
2600 |
2700 |
83 |
0.0% |
1.1% |
4.3% |
11.6% |
10.0% |
5.7% |
||||||
84 |
1.8% |
2.8% |
4.5% |
5.9% |
3.8% |
7.1% |
10.5% |
|||||
85 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
3.5% |
3.4% |
5.2% |
3.6% |
4.4% |
|||||
86 |
5.9% |
3.1% |
2.8% |
5.9% |
4.7% |
4.0% |
5.9% |
8.7% |
||||
87 |
5.0% |
2.0% |
3.5% |
4.3% |
4.9% |
4.6% |
5.1% |
6.6% |
||||
88 |
5.2% |
3.4% |
4.4% |
4.0% |
4.3% |
4.3% |
5.4% |
7.5% |
6.9% |
8.5% |
||
89 |
4.8% |
2.0% |
3.3% |
4.3% |
5.5% |
3.5% |
5.1% |
5.7% |
5.9% |
6.0% |
8.9% |
|
90 |
1.9% |
5.5% |
4.1% |
3.5% |
4.6% |
5.0% |
5.3% |
5.6% |
7.5% |
8.4% |
10.3% |
4.3% |
91 |
7.9% |
4.1% |
3.7% |
3.9% |
4.8% |
5.4% |
6.5% |
6.8% |
6.8% |
7.8% |
9.2% |
7.9% |
92 |
7.0% |
4.1% |
5.2% |
5.2% |
5.9% |
6.5% |
7.1% |
7.6% |
8.3% |
8.7% |
10.4% |
|
93 |
1.8% |
1.9% |
4.1% |
5.2% |
5.2% |
6.9% |
6.7% |
7.5% |
8.3% |
9.6% |
9.6% |
12.2% |
94 |
5.6% |
3.9% |
3.1% |
5.2% |
5.6% |
6.8% |
7.4% |
7.9% |
8.5% |
9.2% |
10.9% |
11.4% |
95 |
1.5% |
4.7% |
6.6% |
6.4% |
7.3% |
8.1% |
8.7% |
10.1% |
10.0% |
12.0% |
12.4% |
|
96 |
14.0% |
6.8% |
5.9% |
7.4% |
8.9% |
9.3% |
10.2% |
10.8% |
11.3% |
12.5% |
||
97 |
4.7% |
7.4% |
7.8% |
8.9% |
9.8% |
10.9% |
12.8% |
13.6% |
19.2% |
|||
98 |
8.2% |
7.6% |
9.3% |
10.5% |
11.7% |
13.2% |
13.3% |
16.8% |
||||
99 |
5.4% |
10.2% |
9.1% |
11.2% |
12.8% |
13.4% |
16.0% |
19.7% |
||||
100 |
9.7% |
11.2% |
9.1% |
14.3% |
17.2% |
18.0% |
Curveball Swinging Strike%
Spin |
||||||||||||
Velocity |
1900 |
2000 |
2100 |
2200 |
2300 |
2400 |
2500 |
2600 |
2700 |
2800 |
2900 |
3000 |
68 |
3.3% |
8.3% |
11.8% |
12.4% |
14.3% |
|||||||
69 |
0.0% |
4.2% |
6.3% |
5.4% |
15.1% |
8.5% |
9.9% |
|||||
70 |
10.3% |
6.1% |
8.7% |
6.8% |
4.6% |
10.5% |
8.4% |
|||||
71 |
7.7% |
8.6% |
6.3% |
6.1% |
9.1% |
5.6% |
8.6% |
10.4% |
||||
72 |
8.1% |
8.9% |
6.4% |
5.5% |
7.3% |
11.2% |
8.5% |
7.3% |
10.3% |
3.9% |
||
73 |
2.0% |
7.2% |
7.0% |
6.8% |
6.9% |
9.1% |
6.1% |
9.8% |
7.1% |
9.6% |
3.9% |
|
74 |
1.9% |
3.9% |
7.7% |
7.9% |
7.8% |
9.1% |
9.8% |
7.1% |
9.4% |
8.0% |
7.4% |
6.7% |
75 |
4.1% |
6.8% |
7.5% |
9.2% |
7.8% |
7.6% |
8.5% |
7.6% |
9.4% |
8.8% |
7.1% |
6.9% |
76 |
2.0% |
6.9% |
6.8% |
6.9% |
7.7% |
9.2% |
10.7% |
6.8% |
7.5% |
7.1% |
8.7% |
9.0% |
77 |
5.6% |
4.8% |
4.4% |
8.7% |
7.6% |
7.2% |
8.8% |
9.7% |
5.5% |
9.0% |
7.6% |
7.0% |
78 |
6.1% |
9.5% |
8.1% |
8.1% |
7.2% |
8.7% |
9.9% |
8.4% |
9.2% |
9.8% |
8.8% |
11.7% |
79 |
7.4% |
5.5% |
6.6% |
6.9% |
7.7% |
6.8% |
9.7% |
8.0% |
8.7% |
8.1% |
11.7% |
11.8% |
80 |
8.6% |
7.4% |
7.7% |
7.7% |
11.3% |
7.7% |
8.7% |
9.0% |
7.7% |
10.8% |
12.0% |
10.4% |
81 |
5.4% |
4.4% |
6.5% |
9.9% |
9.4% |
10.0% |
12.6% |
7.2% |
9.7% |
6.6% |
9.8% |
11.6% |
82 |
5.1% |
9.7% |
12.4% |
11.0% |
11.2% |
9.8% |
9.6% |
8.7% |
9.6% |
11.7% |
10.2% |
|
83 |
9.8% |
12.1% |
16.0% |
12.9% |
11.7% |
10.2% |
15.1% |
10.0% |
9.5% |
12.5% |
17.1% |
|
84 |
11.8% |
12.3% |
16.7% |
12.4% |
11.2% |
19.0% |
10.2% |
15.7% |
13.3% |
8.3% |
10.3% |
|
85 |
14.1% |
15.8% |
14.0% |
15.1% |
20.5% |
14.0% |
14.9% |
14.8% |
12.9% |
|||
86 |
19.4% |
20.1% |
17.3% |
19.5% |
14.9% |
14.1% |
13.4% |
Take a look at the highest average spin rate for fastballs in Major League Baseball and you see some popular names, with Andrew Bailey, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Aroldis Chapman, and Dellin Betances peppering the list. Second on the list is Chicago Cubs reliever Carl Edwards Jr. at 2660 RPM. In addition, there have only been 25 two- or four-seam fastballs thrown with a spin rate above 2850 RPM. Most noteworthy: seven of those belong to Edwards.
He is throwing a higher percentage of pitches 2850 RPM, more than the next nine guys on the list combined. What does that matter? That list is 12 pitchers deep and is, again, populated by some of the more prolific fastball pitchers in the game. Add to that an average velocity of 95.5 with a perceived velocity of 96.8.
Perceived Velocity
I think an important part of this is the perceived velocity aspect. We’ll use Chapman as an example. Not only does Chapman throw harder than anyone in baseball, he appears to throw even harder, with some of the longest extension in the game. That extension gives him an average perceived velocity of 101.4 mph against an actual average velocity of 100.7 mph, a difference of 0.7. In comparison, Edwards has a difference of 1.3 mph.
More from Statliners
All that being said, the results speak for themselves: With a minimum of 20 innings, Edwards is first in Major League Baseball with a .100 BAA, second in WHIP at 0.70, and second in BABIP at .155, with guys making contact in the strike zone at just a 70.1 percent clip, good for second in baseball, and 62.6 overall (which is third).
While the sample size is relatively small at 30 innings, he has shown an ability to miss bats and and get outs. Looking at the fastball table above, and spin rate data backing up what he has done so far this year. It’s easy to see why Cubs fans are excited about what the future holds for Carl Edwards.
The Curve
After pouring through the statcast data, curiosity took hold. Could I find some of the same correlations with other pitches? Is there enough time in the day to go through all that information? On my second day of writing the answer appears to be…no. I separated the data by pitch type grouping cutters and sliders, curves and knuckle curves, with change-ups by themselves.
The standout from this, as Petriello pointed out, is Seth Lugo of the New York Mets. Lugo is head and shoulders above the field on average spin rate for curveballs at 3330 RPM. And while that has translated to a nice year for the reliever with a .203 BAA and a 0.99 WHIP, it begs the question: What gives?
Lugo has a contact rate at 80.5 percent, he isn’t generating a lot of swings and misses. And his curveball, the one that is tops in average spin rate, only gets used 16.9 percent of the time and while pitch value (PV) is an imperfect stat, full of small sample size issues, his curveball has negative value. At 78.4 mph with a perceived velocity of 77.3, his curveball is 121st in velocity among pitchers with 30 innings and 259th in PV overall.
Despite the high spin rate, his middle of the pack velocity on his curve makes it an average to below average pitch. Lugo is not alone, you can see the effectiveness on swinging strikes concentrates on high spin/high velocity for the fastball, where as the curve generates more swing and miss with higher velocity somewhat regardless of spin rate.